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Topic: Chris Holtmann

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847badgerfan

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #84 on: January 24, 2024, 09:24:43 AM »
I'm vaguely familiar with his story. He is almost exactly six months older than me and played CBB at Wooster College which is a small College not far from me.
He recruited Ohio well for Bo Ryan and Greg Gard.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

MaximumSam

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #85 on: January 24, 2024, 09:47:25 AM »

Quote
How is this even a discussion at this point? Is Holtmann your cousin?
You are conflating what you want to happen with what is likely to happen.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #86 on: January 24, 2024, 09:52:23 AM »
You are conflating what you want to happen with what is likely to happen.
I've laid out a very detailed case as to what is likely to happen.

The next coach has a 50/50 chance to be as good or better than the average Ohio State BB coach and the average Ohio State BB coach over the past ~40 years has been VASTLY superior to the current coach. 

bayareabadger

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #87 on: January 24, 2024, 10:08:56 AM »
I've laid out a very detailed case as to what is likely to happen.

The next coach has a 50/50 chance to be as good or better than the average Ohio State BB coach and the average Ohio State BB coach over the past ~40 years has been VASTLY superior to the current coach.
I think that last part is a bit of a gambler’s fallacy. And the “vastly“ part might be a little bit of an overstatement.

That being said, Chris is committing the modern program crime of two non-tournament seasons, and that’ll get you. 

bayareabadger

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #88 on: January 24, 2024, 10:10:15 AM »
Look up Lamont Paris. Good background.
I have friends in SC. I hope his time there doesn’t end quite so fast.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #89 on: January 24, 2024, 10:11:24 AM »

If this were Holtmann's third or fourth year I'd be interested in a discussion/debate about thus being a young team and how that experience might look next year under him.

This isn't Holtmann's third or fourth year. He has had seven years to figure things out
Exactly. A young team makes sense if you're a relatively new coach trying to rebuild a program. A young team makes sense if you're an 7th year coach coming off a banner year where you sent a bunch of experienced players to the NBA / graduation after a successful year and it's time to rebuild in their wake.

Instead, we have a 7th year coach that's trying to figure out how to run a program that has seen sequential drops in results basically his entire tenure. And the excuse is "well he's got a young team."

Well, then that means this failure is merely an extension of his last 6 years.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2024, 10:17:10 AM by betarhoalphadelta »

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #90 on: January 24, 2024, 10:19:02 AM »
He recruited Ohio well for Bo Ryan and Greg Gard.
Hopefully he is already under consideration by Gene Smith and/or Ross Bjork. It is reasonable to assume at thus point that the AD is looking at options because the current BB coach's underperformance is not improving and the current season is hovering between merely "bad" and "horrible". Either one of those outcomes would clearly be unacceptable for a seventh year coach with ZERO notable accomplishments. 

I would also look at this guy:
https://ciurams.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/coaches/tony-stockman/334

I'm biased though because I know him and I've worked a few charity events with him. He probably doesn't have enough high-level experience to be a realistic candidate. 

As I said above though, this is NOT how I view this decision. Instead, I start from a realistic assessment of reasonable program expectations and if the current coach isn't meeting those it is time to move on. Figure out who to hire after you make the first decision.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #91 on: January 24, 2024, 10:21:25 AM »
That being said, Chris is committing the modern program crime of two non-tournament seasons, and that’ll get you.
Matta took us to multiple F4's and four straight S16's and got fired when he missed consecutive tournaments so yeah, that is a firing offense. 

MaximumSam

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #92 on: January 24, 2024, 11:32:55 AM »
I've laid out a very detailed case as to what is likely to happen.

The next coach has a 50/50 chance to be as good or better than the average Ohio State BB coach and the average Ohio State BB coach over the past ~40 years has been VASTLY superior to the current coach.
I mean, maybe. I really have no clue. Gene Smith has been a big Holtmann supporter, and I know nothing about Bjork other than he sort of just follows the wind. The wind is against Holtmann, but Columbus isn't a basketball town so it's more of a light breeze. I don't really have a thought as to what is likely to happen. A key part of Holtmann's appeal is his ability to field a competent tourney team with a collection of randos, but that doesn't work if he misses the tourney twice. OTOH, Bjork just got here and OSU still has a competent team that could return lots of guys next season, and he may not want to blow that up.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #93 on: January 24, 2024, 12:39:33 PM »
Allow me to present:
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401600303/buckeyes-nittany-lions

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401600315/buckeyes-hoosiers

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401600323/badgers-buckeyes

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401600333/buckeyes-wolverines

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401600347/buckeyes-cornhuskers

Things have gone hopelessly south. This season is irrevocably lost. We are seven years Holtmann's tenure and we have a crappy team for the second year in a row, we haven't been close to a B1G title since 2018, and we haven't made it beyond the first weekend of of the NCAA Tournament in a decade.
The above is absolutely NOT "a competent team".

IMHO there are only two things prolonging Holtmann's tenure:
  • Gene Smith made a multi-million dollar error in signing an extension with him a few years ago despite his complete lack of notable accomplishments, and
  • Gene Smith is still AD and doesn't want admit to #1.

#1 is rapidly becoming undeniable and #2 ends July 1.

I want to avoid a second consecutive oddly timed BB coaching hire. That was how we got stuck with Holtmann in the first place.

Gene Smith waited WAY to long (in the year not in years) to move on from Matta. In that case it was understandable because Matta had been a successful coach for the Buckeyes.

In retrospect it is fairly obvious that Smith should have either:
  • Fired Matta sooner (understandable because he missed back-to-back tournaments), or
  • Held on to Matta for another season (understandable because Matta had a lot of success at tOSU).
Smith bungled the end of Matta's tenure then hired Holtmann fresh off of a S16 run apparently without realizing that Holtmann made a S16, still the only of his coaching career by beating two crap teams (he lucked into an upset winner in the second round).

The last thing I want is for Smith to hang onto Holtmann such that Bjork is forced to fire him immediately upon taking over in early July when it is hard to find an available coach.


MaximumSam

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #94 on: January 24, 2024, 12:52:45 PM »
I would assume that Bjork and Smith talk about what they want to happen and make decisions like that collaboratively. Smith has vocally been very supportive of Holtmann and I can only assume is saying that to Bjork right now. You can say the season is lost, but in reality it isn't - if they go on a winning streak and make the tourney I doubt they will fire the coach. If they don't make the tourney, I don't have a feeling one way or another. The difference between this and Matta is that Matta was losing with veteran teams and the program was a mess. This team isn't veteran and the program isn't a mess, so the vibe is different. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #95 on: January 24, 2024, 03:44:10 PM »
I would assume that Bjork and Smith talk about what they want to happen and make decisions like that collaboratively.
This I agree with.
Smith has vocally been very supportive of Holtmann and I can only assume is saying that to Bjork right now.
I agree that Smith has been supportive publicly but that is utterly meaningless to me. AD's are typically publicly supportive right up until the moment of termination. I think it just comes with the territory.
You can say the season is lost, but in reality it isn't - if they go on a winning streak and make the tourney I doubt they will fire the coach.
This is just silly and/or delusional.

First, the Buckeyes have no plausible chance of contending for the league title because they already have five losses and the league Champion is typically better than 15-5. Thus, even if this crappy team suddenly becomes not just competent nor even good nor even great nor even elite but so phenomenally spectacular that they win out including:
  • A home win over #10 Illinois
  • A win over #13 Wisconsin in the Kohl Center
  • A home win over #2 Purdue
  • A win over Izzo's Spartans in the Breslin Center in late February
  • Wins in all of their other eight remaining games.
Even if they do all of that, they'll still end up a few games out of first place, they might not even get s double-bye!

This season is absolutely lost in terms of contending for the league title.

Second, don't forget that the eight games the Buckeyes have played are dramatically easier than the 12 they have left so it would take a monumental improvement to go .500 the rest of the way and that would only get them to 19-12/9-11 heading into the Target Center. They'd be on the bubble but even with a good run in Minneapolis they would still wind up with a weak seed where game #1 is a challenge and NCAA Tournament game #2 is a nearly impossible challenge against one of the top teams in the nation.

This season is absolutely lost in terms of accomplishing anything that would wake ⏰️ up the potential CBB attendees in Columbus.

If they don't make the tourney, I don't have a feeling one way or another.
Seriously?

You are ok with our alma mater paying $10M a year to a guy for results they could get for half that from any random halfway competent coach?

The difference between this and Matta is that Matta was losing with veteran teams and the program was a mess. This team isn't veteran and the program isn't a mess, so the vibe is different.
On this my view could not be more different than yours. Here you are, once again, referencing the allegedly "young team". I couldn't care less. As @betarhoalphadelta and I have said repeatedly, Holtmann is not a new coach and he isn't in rebuilding mode coming off of a great season. He is in year seven, he has NEVER had a great season, and last year was historically bad.

The relevant difference isn't the age of the teams. The relevant difference is that Matta had a history of success as a BB coach and Holtmann has a history of mediocrity as a BB coach.

If you keep a previously successful coach like Matta there is a chance that he *MIGHT* return to his previous greatness. If you keep a previously mediocre (at best) coach like Holtmann, the more-or-less best-case-scenario is that he'll return to his previous mediocrity.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #96 on: January 24, 2024, 04:01:49 PM »
Holtmann is not a new coach and he isn't in rebuilding mode coming off of a great season. He is in year seven, he has NEVER had a great season, and last year was historically bad.

The relevant difference isn't the age of the teams. The relevant difference is that Matta had a history of success as a BB coach and Holtmann has a history of mediocrity as a BB coach.

If you keep a previously successful coach like Matta there is a chance that he *MIGHT* return to his previous greatness. If you keep a previously mediocre (at best) coach like Holtmann, the more-or-less best-case-scenario is that he'll return to his previous mediocrity.
I think Matt Painter is an interesting comparison as came up in the earlier thread. There was a lot of question of whether to get rid of him after the 2013-2014 season. Two straight missed tournaments culminating in finishing last in the league. Painter had an even longer run, and had just finished his 9th year, so again this isn't a "new" coach scenario. In the "what have you done for me lately?" accounting, he hadn't done much.

However there are some differences...

  • First, he actually DID have some really good results. He tied for the conference championship one of those years. Prior to the two misses, he had made the tournament six straight times, never lost an opening round game, and made it to two consecutive Sweet 16s. And in both cases, Purdue faced the #1 seed in those games, so a loss is not that big of a surprise. Holtmann has not gotten near those levels for the "highs".  
  • Second, he inherited a program in the dumpster, and the success he found was accomplished with his own recruits. Holtmann's best (first) season was with Matta's guys. 

The concern was that the success was a fluke from one really good recruiting class, and that he wouldn't find his way back. 

But I think unlike Holtmann, the previous success was what got him enough of a leash to recover. 


MaximumSam

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #97 on: January 24, 2024, 05:08:32 PM »

Quote
Seriously?

You are ok with our alma mater paying $10M a year to a guy for results they could get for half that from any random halfway competent coach?
I'm talking about what I think would happen, not what I personally think

 

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