CFP Thread

[OrangeAfroMan]

PSU
RU
UMD
MSU
?

Pitt or UVA for that last spot.  AAU and all that. 

One school that should be nervous is West Virginia.  Not chum to trim off, but not a great program, either.  Not strong on academics, no eyeballs to bring in.  That's a good program that might get left out, ultimately.

They could very easily have won NCs in 2007 and 1988.  Could have had an undefeated non-NC in 1993.  Couldda, shouldda, wouldda.

They're too good a program to leave out, but things might not fall their way going forward. 

[ManHawk]

Align the B1G with 20.

I know there are 6 schools that will NOT want to be joined with the PAC 4.

https://btaa.org/

If the Big Ten was forced to split into divisions,  I kinda like the idea of splitting the Big Ten into 3 separate 6-team divisions

North
Wisc, Minn, Iowa, Minn,  Wash, Ore

South
USC, UCLA,  ILL, NW,  Ind, Pur

East
Penn St,  Ohio St,  MD, Rut,  Mich, Mich St

Play every team in your division every year (5 games a year)

Play 12 teams in other divisions once every 3 years (4 games a year)

Then tweak it so that USC and UCLA play Wash and Ore more often and play Minn, Neb,  Iowa and Wisc less often.

Also tweak it so that Wash and Ore play ILL, NW, Ind and Purdue less often and play USC and  UCLA more often.

As a result it would also be tweaked so that  Iowa, Neb, Minn, Wisc would play ILL,  NW, Ind, Purdue more often.

[FearlessF]

two 9-team divisions

tweak that

[Cincydawg]

I'm slightly amazed at all the "predictions" made about these games by "experts".  I know I shouldn't be, it's click bait, and a kind of "fun" I guess.  I'm not sure we have any expert anywhere who consistently beats Vegas.  If we do, they likely keep it quiet.  I know I can't beat Vegas, they have, well, the odds in their favor, duh.  It's a remarkable "game" they devised taking advantage of the mathematically illiterate who win often enough to forget their losses and remember their good calls.

Does it make folks feel better is some "expert" predicts their team will prevail?  I guess it does, but why?  Folks would watch Game Day eagerly awaiting the predictions for their team as if any of it mattered beyond some theater.

Meanwhile, as I often note, competitive games hinge on turnovers and other unpredictable events.  I thought Oklahoma beat Bama the first time largely on TOs, and when the score was 17-0 I thought "Well, I guess I was wrong."  Then I was wrong thinking I was wrong.

It happens.

[MaximumSam]

What cracks me up is Bill Connelly developed one of the best predictive algorithms in SP+, which has traditionally beat Vegas. ESPN hired him to bring it to them, and I'm not sure any of the "experts" have ever brought it up when making predictions.  

[Cincydawg]

One thing about Vegas is they set and maintain lines depending on how they thing the public will bet, not who they think will win.  So, if SP+ does beat their odds, the public is largely ignoring it.  If the public followed it, Vegas would adjust and it wouldn't.  I think "popular" teams get favored more than lesser known teams because of public notice.  Maybe Indiana should be favored more over Bama in reality, but Bama is getting a lot of bets because ... they are Bama, and Indy is not.    But maybe there is a slog of pro money to offset that, dunno.

2025 college football SP+ rankings for all 136 FBS teams - ESPN

Let's see how well it does, it has Indy over Bama rather comfortably, UGA barely over OM.

[MrNubbz]

  I know I can't beat Vegas, they have, well, the odds in their favor, duh.  It's a remarkable "game" they devised taking advantage of the mathematically illiterate who win often enough to forget their losses and remember their good calls.

You get a Yuengling, now I know I'm not "mathematically illiterate" more like the an eternal optimist - or was. But the underlined certainly describes the delightful degenerates in the collective I hung with for 15 yrs or so. And a lot of others who are cursed with a clue. Its just so much more than math though like factoring in intangibles - how injured is someone,accurate weather forcasting,who has whose number, HFA in certain places, who and how many don't feel like balling because they're already guaranteed gobs of green and just mail it on that day. And picking out other  peculiarities, yet us forcasting Columos still thought we could figure it all out.

 And BTW wagering was spring board for finding the original board as I saw the icon for fan forum/message board. CFN writers - Pete Fuital, Zemek, Cirminiello and the rest of the writers along with "Clucko the Chicken" (a coin flip) forcasted all the top 25 games weekly. And Clucko actually won the contest one year. So I showed myself in to the message board and hooked up with Carr is My Homeboy/DUDEK and Gatorama two M* Guys and we had some good/lively exchanges. So as Paul Harvey use to say "now you know the rest of the story" 

[bayareabadger]

I'm slightly amazed at all the "predictions" made about these games by "experts".  I know I shouldn't be, it's click bait, and a kind of "fun" I guess.  I'm not sure we have any expert anywhere who consistently beats Vegas.  If we do, they likely keep it quiet.  I know I can't beat Vegas, they have, well, the odds in their favor, duh.  It's a remarkable "game" they devised taking advantage of the mathematically illiterate who win often enough to forget their losses and remember their good calls.

Does it make folks feel better is some "expert" predicts their team will prevail?  I guess it does, but why?  Folks would watch Game Day eagerly awaiting the predictions for their team as if any of it mattered beyond some theater.

Meanwhile, as I often note, competitive games hinge on turnovers and other unpredictable events.  I thought Oklahoma beat Bama the first time largely on TOs, and when the score was 17-0 I thought "Well, I guess I was wrong."  Then I was wrong thinking I was wrong.

It happens.

At a point, I don’t think many of these people think they’re “experts” picking games. For years, you’ve ascribed them expertise and then wondered about it.

People make picked because people who watch/consume enjoy people making picks. It’s just capitalism in action.

[bayareabadger]

One thing about Vegas is they set and maintain lines depending on how they thing the public will bet, not who they think will win.  So, if SP+ does beat their odds, the public is largely ignoring it.  If the public followed it, Vegas would adjust and it wouldn't.  I think "popular" teams get favored more than lesser known teams because of public notice.  Maybe Indiana should be favored more over Bama in reality, but Bama is getting a lot of bets because ... they are Bama, and Indy is not.    But maybe there is a slog of pro money to offset that, dunno.

2025 college football SP+ rankings for all 136 FBS teams - ESPN

Let's see how well it does, it has Indy over Bama rather comfortably, UGA barely over OM.

Vegas already incorporates those numbers or similar ones into their lines. 

[Cincydawg]

“Experts” in quotes.  If the Vegas line includes SP+ then that can’t beat Vegas.

I think it is weighted by how bettors view things also.

[FearlessF]

way too many "experts" in the world

[Cincydawg]

I watched a couple "experts" yesterday on Bama-Indy, Josh Tate and one other dude.  Most of it was musings, which is fine, the bits were short.  

I'm quite interested in this one.  I always like seeing Bama get beat, especially by a team of "Nobodies" who are coached up, etc. (the image, not the reality).  I have not seen much of Indy this season, so my own opinion is really copied from others, but I EXPECT Indy will stop whatever effort Bama attaches to running the D ball, and then Simpson has to have "one of those games".

It's also interesting to see Bama being disrespected in the media (experts again).  The story to be written AFTER if somehow Bama wins will feature that aspect.  Meanwhile, Indy appears to have no real "holes".  They can do it all, and well.  I read somewhere their QB is pretty decent.  So, this could end up being over quickly and end something like 31-13 Indy.  Or maybe Bama catched a break and a couple TOs and hangs around, if they can, maybe Indy panicks a bit?  

Very interesting, more so than the others aside from my own rooting interest.  

[FearlessF]

[ManHawk]

two 9-team divisions

tweak that

Even Years
Norrth
Wash, Ore, Neb, Iowa, Minn, Wisc,
Mich,  Mich ST,  NW

South
USC,  UCLA, , Ind, Purdue,. MD, Rut,
Ohio St, Penn St,  ILL


Odd Years
Norrth
Wash, Ore, Neb, Iowa, Minn, Wisc, 
Ohio Sr, Penn St,  ILL

South
USC,  UCLA, , Ind, Purdue,. MD, Rut,
Mich, Mich St,  NW