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Topic: B1G Bowl Slate

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CWSooner

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Re: B1G Bowl Slate
« Reply #28 on: December 09, 2019, 10:51:44 PM »
Pete Fiutak over at CFN needs to get the word.


Quote
After last year’s clunker of a CFP – with three blowouts – we deserve nice things out of this version.
Alabama 45, Oklahoma 34


Clemson 30, Notre Dame 3

Clemson 44, Alabama 16

Only two blowouts.
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Bowl Slate
« Reply #29 on: December 09, 2019, 10:58:19 PM »
Clemson could do it again
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CWSooner

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Re: B1G Bowl Slate
« Reply #30 on: December 09, 2019, 11:08:34 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on December 09, 2019, 10:58:19 PM
Clemson could do it again
The OSU would have to give them lots of help, I think.
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Bowl Slate
« Reply #31 on: December 09, 2019, 11:41:42 PM »
Bama gave them some help last season
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Hawkinole

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Re: B1G Bowl Slate
« Reply #32 on: December 10, 2019, 12:02:01 AM »
My first reaction to the Big Ten bowl lineup was -- this looks like the Big Ten is going to be challenged, probably more so in its bowl games than the past few years since Ohio State is in the playoff. I decided to use the Massey Composite Computer College Football Rankings to see if my impression is correct. So here goes:

  • Pinstripe Bowl (NYC) #43 Michigan State (6-6) vs. #41 Wake Forest (8-4)
  • Holiday Bowl (San Diego) #19 Iowa (9-3) vs. #23 Southern California (8-4)
  • Cotton Bowl (Dallas) #8 Penn State (10-2) vs. #14 Memphis (12-1)
  • CFP Semifinal (Glendale, AZ) #1 Ohio State (13-0) vs. #3 Clemson (13-0)
  • Redbox Bowl (Santa Clara, CA) #67 Illinois (6-6) vs. #46 Cal (7-5)
  • Outback Bowl (Tampa) #20 Minnesota (10-2) vs. #13 Auburn (9-3)
  • Citrus (Orlando) #15 Michigan (9-3) vs. #10 Alabama (10-2)
  • Rose Bowl #7 Wisconsin (10-3) vs. #6 Oregon (11-2)
  • Gator Bowl (Jacksonville) #36 Indiana (8-4) vs. #38 Tennessee (7-5)
Considering computer rankings only, Big Ten teams are ranked higher than their opponents in 4 of 9 bowl games.

Another interesting comparison: Bowl teams by conference in New Years Six games:

3 - SEC
3 - Big Ten
2 - Big Twelve
2 -ACC
1 - PAC-12
1 -Non Power 5


The fact Big Ten opponents are ranked higher in 5 of 9 bowl games relates in large measure to the Big Ten's high participation rate in New Years Six games. You can see that if Ohio St were out of the playoff and each Big Ten team were dropped down to the next level bowl, I haven't had the time to run each #, but at quick glance I think the Big Ten would be favored against each opponent except against Alabama.



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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Bowl Slate
« Reply #33 on: December 10, 2019, 08:37:09 AM »
Yup, placing teams in major bowls is good, but means that "down ballot" your conference's teams will tend to face tougher competition, but perhaps from weaker conferences as well.  The B1G has four SEC bowl opponents, and they have the same situation exactly.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Bowl Slate
« Reply #34 on: December 10, 2019, 09:04:29 AM »
Quote from: CWSooner on December 09, 2019, 09:26:46 PM
This has clarified one point for me.  It takes a margin of victory of more than two touchdowns to qualify as a blowout or a woodshed whipping.
I generally agree that a "blowout" or "woodshed whipping" is roughly >21 but context matters.

My go-to examples are:
  • Back in the mid 90's Ohio State beat Iowa by "only" 21 points, 56-35. However, I consider it to be a blowout because tOSU led 56-0 and the backups gave up a bunch of garbage-time points.
  • Ohio State once beat Penn State by 22, points, 28-6. However I do NOT consider that to be a blowout because tOSU was clinging to an eight point, one-score lead deep into the fourth quarter until PSU's QB threw pick-sixes on back-to-back plays.

My point is that it isn't just about point differential.
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ELA

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Re: B1G Bowl Slate
« Reply #35 on: December 10, 2019, 09:20:49 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 10, 2019, 09:04:29 AM
I generally agree that a "blowout" or "woodshed whipping" is roughly >21 but context matters.

My go-to examples are:
  • Back in the mid 90's Ohio State beat Iowa by "only" 21 points, 56-35. However, I consider it to be a blowout because tOSU led 56-0 and the backups gave up a bunch of garbage-time points.
  • Ohio State once beat Penn State by 22, points, 28-6. However I do NOT consider that to be a blowout because tOSU was clinging to an eight point, one-score lead deep into the fourth quarter until PSU's QB threw pick-sixes on back-to-back plays.

My point is that it isn't just about point differential.
Doesn't Game Control help account for that?  Better metric than MOV
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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Bowl Slate
« Reply #36 on: December 10, 2019, 09:23:06 AM »
We've all seen games where Team A beats Team B despite Team B's gaining a lot more yards and TOP, etc.  Usually, you can find the answer in the turn over statistic.

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SFBadger96

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Re: B1G Bowl Slate
« Reply #37 on: December 11, 2019, 12:27:32 PM »
Some games are close, then get out of hand in a hurry. Other games are out of hand early, but late scores make them seem closer. Wisconsin's wins over Minnesota and Michigan this season are examples of each. The Minnesota game was close into the third quarter, and didn't feel out of reach until the 4th quarter, when, at 24-10, the Badgers denied Minnesota an the goal line on 4th down, took over on downs, and marched the other way for a score on six plays, taking a 31-10 lead. Until then, Badger fans remained nervous. Minnesota connects on either of its passes on 3rd or 4th down and it's 24-17...It became a blowout in the 4th quarter, and ended a 21-point game.

Wisconsin was up 28-0 against Michigan at the half, and 35-0 late in the 3rd quarter. Two meaningless touchdowns made it a 21 point game, but it was never anything other than a blowout. The Minnesota game was much closer.

Nonetheless, 21+ is always a big score differential.

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ELA

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Re: B1G Bowl Slate
« Reply #38 on: December 11, 2019, 01:19:44 PM »
Quote from: SFBadger96 on December 11, 2019, 12:27:32 PM
Wisconsin was up 28-0 against Michigan at the half, and 35-0 late in the 3rd quarter. Two meaningless touchdowns made it a 21 point game, but it was never anything other than a blowout. The Minnesota game was much closer.

Nonetheless, 21+ is always a big score differential.
MSU-Indiana in 2015 was back and forth the whole game, 28-26 MSU going into the 4th.  MSU added a FG early in the 4th to make it 31-26.

MSU finally added some separation with a TD with 4 minutes left to make it 38-26.  IU went 4 (had to go for it), and out, and MSU had 3 big runs in a row to score again.  Then IU fumbled the kick return, MSU recovered and scored again.  MSU went from up 5 with under 5 minutes to go to a 26 point win.
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