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Topic: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion

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TyphonInc

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #196 on: January 11, 2018, 10:02:02 AM »
The simple answer is that nobody forced UCF to play an OOC of FCS, FIU, Maryland.  If you want to have a chance to be included with the big dogs then put on your big boy pants and go play somebody.  As a G5 team, you can't play that OOC and then complain that you got left out.  
That's not quite fair. They scheduled Georgia Tech and Memphis. Hurricane Irma canceled those games, and they couldn't get them rescheduled. So FCS games got filled in. 
I hear your point, they played a weak schedule and should not get rewarded. I'd assert same as Alabama scheduled who FSU. They tried to play a tough team, but FSU sucked this year and Alabama still gets rewarded with a playoff opportunity. 

Kris61

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #197 on: January 11, 2018, 10:38:46 AM »
I think the best chance for a G5 to crack the playoff could have been last year if Houston had been able to run the table.  They beat Oklahoma to start the year and then beat Louisville late in the year when they were 9-1 and ranked #3.  If they had been able to run the table in the AAC with those two wins I think it would have been a very interesting decision for the committee.  They would have had two wins over ranked P5 teams, including a P5 champion.

But, as others have said, it takes that kind of scheduling and luck (the P5 OOC teams you schedule have to have good seasons) for a G5 to get in.  Not impossible, but really, really hard.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #198 on: January 11, 2018, 10:53:23 AM »
I think the best chance for a G5 to crack the playoff could have been last year if Houston had been able to run the table.  They beat Oklahoma to start the year and then beat Louisville late in the year when they were 9-1 and ranked #3.  If they had been able to run the table in the AAC with those two wins I think it would have been a very interesting decision for the committee.  They would have had two wins over ranked P5 teams, including a P5 champion.

But, as others have said, it takes that kind of scheduling and luck (the P5 OOC teams you schedule have to have good seasons) for a G5 to get in.  Not impossible, but really, really hard.
And I think this is fine because playing a G5 schedule is ridiculously easy compared to playing a P5 schedule.  
Ohio State's big loss to Iowa last season is a good example of that.  Ohio State played a really bad game and Iowa was good enough to blow the Buckeyes out.  If Ohio State played in the AAC and played that same game against any AAC team not named Memphis or UCF, they still would win.  That is a humongous advantage for the UCF's of the world.  

bayareabadger

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #199 on: January 11, 2018, 11:10:19 AM »
The simple answer is that nobody forced UCF to play an OOC of FCS, FIU, Maryland.  If you want to have a chance to be included with the big dogs then put on your big boy pants and go play somebody.  As a G5 team, you can't play that OOC and then complain that you got left out.  
I suppose no one FORCED them to, but what OOC scheudle would satisfy? Most of that slate was built before the current coach even arrived. You had an act of god take out one game. And ou have the factor some of the stuff is just hard to predict (play GT and MD last year, it means something. This year, it’s trash).
The point is, a team like that is rarely going to be able to schedule itself into position to have that baller OOC shedule, and rarer still be able to time it up with one of the best teams in program history. You can’t just say, “we’ve got a good team here,” best load up this year. 
 In short, this is true, but it is not something they have much of a measure of iron clad control over. 

bayareabadger

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #200 on: January 11, 2018, 11:31:54 AM »
And I think this is fine because playing a G5 schedule is ridiculously easy compared to playing a P5 schedule.  
Ohio State's big loss to Iowa last season is a good example of that.  Ohio State played a really bad game and Iowa was good enough to blow the Buckeyes out.  If Ohio State played in the AAC and played that same game against any AAC team not named Memphis or UCF, they still would win.  That is a humongous advantage for the UCF's of the world.  
It feels weird to call is an advantage. This sport is by nature unbalanced. UCF is almost assuredly on the not-advantaged one. 
UCF has an advantage in terms of going undefeated, with a relative disadvantage in everything else. Now I think it's bad UCF can do everything it can against the schedule presented and be perpetually shut out. But I also don't think UCF should've been in a four-team playoff, if that makes any sense. 
Lets face it, OSU has some pretty big advantages as well. If Bama doesn't lose to Auburn, OSU is likely in with two losses. Hell, If the Iowa game is 24-21, OSU might be in, or if Iowa beat NW and Purdue. So OSU in the right year has two-loss cushion. USF some years is a loss away from Birmingham or the Liberty Bowl at 11-1. 

MaximumSam

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #201 on: January 11, 2018, 12:18:27 PM »
IT looks pretty clear a non Power 5 team has no real shot at ever making it.  Alabama and OSU had pretty stinky resumes and neither had much claim over UCF, but UCF wasn't even in the conversation.  Really, Bama's best wins and UCF's best wins were pretty similar, so the whole schedule thing looks really overrated.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #202 on: January 11, 2018, 02:20:48 PM »
I saw this on fivethirtyeight:



I didn't think the increase to four teams was necessary, I definitely don't think a further expansion is necessary.  An expansion to eight would give 1-loss non-Champions a 97% chance of making it.  That means that everybody would effectively have a mulligan.  It would also give 2-loss non-Champions a pretty good chance and that just takes too much away from the every game matters aspect of the season.  
Only if you take the expansion to 8 without conference champ auto-bids. If you auto-bid the conference champions, it is only a slight increase for 1-loss non-champs over the current 4-team CFP and would be quite rare for a 2-loss non-champ to get in at all. 
Right now, a 1-loss non-champ basically has a 50% chance of a mulligan, which OSU got last year and Alabama got this year. That merely increases to 70% if you keep the auto-bids.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #203 on: January 11, 2018, 02:39:20 PM »
I suppose no one FORCED them to, but what OOC scheudle would satisfy? Most of that slate was built before the current coach even arrived. You had an act of GOD take out one game. And ou have the factor some of the stuff is just hard to predict (play GT and MD last year, it means something. This year, it’s trash).
The point is, a team like that is rarely going to be able to schedule itself into position to have that baller OOC shedule, and rarer still be able to time it up with one of the best teams in program history. You can’t just say, “we’ve got a good team here,” best load up this year.
 In short, this is true, but it is not something they have much of a measure of iron clad control over.
I don't disagree, I just get tired of the complaining from the G5 fans.  Those conference schedules are complete crap so don't complain when you play a crap OOC, a crap conference schedule and don't get into the CFP.  
It feels weird to call is an advantage. This sport is by nature unbalanced. UCF is almost assuredly on the not-advantaged one. 
UCF has an advantage in terms of going undefeated, with a relative disadvantage in everything else. Now I think it's bad UCF can do everything it can against the schedule presented and be perpetually shut out. But I also don't think UCF should've been in a four-team playoff, if that makes any sense. 
Lets face it, OSU has some pretty big advantages as well. If Bama doesn't lose to Auburn, OSU is likely in with two losses. Hell, If the Iowa game is 24-21, OSU might be in, or if Iowa beat NW and Purdue. So OSU in the right year has two-loss cushion. USF some years is a loss away from Birmingham or the Liberty Bowl at 11-1. 
Sure, Ohio State and Bama have advantages that UCF couldn't dream of, but I'm not interested in making a level playing field, I'm interested in putting the best four teams in the country into the CFP.  
UCF has a humongous advantage if we simply let in all Conference Champions or select solely based on record because their schedule is ridiculously easy compared to any P5 team.  They don't have the week-in, week-out grind of playing competent opponents.  
IT looks pretty clear a non Power 5 team has no real shot at ever making it.  Alabama and OSU had pretty stinky resumes and neither had much claim over UCF, but UCF wasn't even in the conversation.  Really, Bama's best wins and UCF's best wins were pretty similar, so the whole schedule thing looks really overrated.
Really?  What were UCF's best wins (pre-bowl because we are talking about at the time of selection)?  Memphis (twice, home and neutral)?  
Using Sagrin's rankings, Ohio State played (final ranking because I can't find pre-bowl):
  • #4 Penn State, won at home
  • #6 Oklahoma, lost at home
  • #7 Wisconsin, won at a neutral site
  • #18 Iowa, lost on the road
  • #23 Michigan State, won at home
  • #26 Michigan, won on the road

#32 Memphis was UCF's best pre-bowl opponent so Ohio State had six games against better teams than the best team UCF played all year.  
Here is the same list for Bama:
  • #8 Auburn, lost on the road
  • #17 MissSt, won on the road
  • #19 LSU, won at home
  • #28 Florida State, won at a neutral site

So Bama was 3-1 in four games against teams better than any team that UCF played and Ohio State was 4-2 in six games against such teams.  It is NOT CLOSE.  A G5 team needs to play a ridiculous OOC to get close to even but it also isn't impossible.  It was pointed out upthread that last year Houston beat P5 Champion Oklahoma and also played Louisville.  That is the kind of schedule that could make it.  If UCF had replaced Austin Peay and Maryland with quality OOC opponents then I think they would have had an argument.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #204 on: January 11, 2018, 02:44:54 PM »
Only if you take the expansion to 8 without conference champ auto-bids. If you auto-bid the conference champions, it is only a slight increase for 1-loss non-champs over the current 4-team CFP and would be quite rare for a 2-loss non-champ to get in at all.
Right now, a 1-loss non-champ basically has a 50% chance of a mulligan, which OSU got last year and Alabama got this year. That merely increases to 70% if you keep the auto-bids.
I'm operating under the assumption that an increase to eight teams will necessarily include auto-bids for the P5 Champions.  I do not think the P5 commissioners would do it without that protection.  I also think that an auto-bid for the highest ranked G5 Champion will be included if only to forestall potential legal or political challenges.  
If it were simply up to me I probably would not give any auto-bids just because I don't think that a team like Wisconsin a few years ago that sneaks into a CG because the two teams that finish ahead of them are in jail then pulls off an upset and wins a P5 Championship with an 8-5 record should be included.  Then again, if it were simply up to me and I didn't have to deal with practical issues I'd have a flexible championship that included only as many teams as I deemed necessary in a given year.  Ie, in 2005 when USC and Texas were undefeated I'd just put them in a NC game but in a year with four 1-loss teams I'd have a 4-team playoff.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #205 on: January 11, 2018, 03:01:45 PM »
I'm operating under the assumption that an increase to eight teams will necessarily include auto-bids for the P5 Champions.  I do not think the P5 commissioners would do it without that protection.  I also think that an auto-bid for the highest ranked G5 Champion will be included if only to forestall potential legal or political challenges.  
If it were simply up to me I probably would not give any auto-bids just because I don't think that a team like Wisconsin a few years ago that sneaks into a CG because the two teams that finish ahead of them are in jail then pulls off an upset and wins a P5 Championship with an 8-5 record should be included. 
Well the chart you posted shows that if you were operating under that assumption, going to 8 teams *with* auto-bids wouldn't basically guarantee (97%) a mulligan or make it too likely (30%) that 2-loss non-champs would get in. With auto-bids those numbers are 69% and 14%, respectively. 
And yes, I get the 2012 Wisconsin problem, just like the 2010 UConn problem. 
But we're not comparing my 8-team playoff against some platonic ideal. We're comparing it against a BCS that left out undefeated teams, that crowned a 2-loss LSU a champion, and that left multiple 1-loss conference champions out in order to play a rematch between non-champ Alabama and LSU. We're comparing against a CFP where the selection committee says one thing [SOS and conf champs matter] and then does the opposite. We're comparing a potentially flawed system that I propose against known flawed systems that exist.
I started the OP by saying that there's sometimes a debate between the "best teams" and the "most deserving" teams. I think an 8-team playoff with auto-bids actually serves both ends. The auto-bids are teams who deserve a chance to play for the championship by virtue of winning their conference. The at-large selection allows for the inclusion of teams that might be "the best" but who for whatever reason didn't escape their conference race unscathed and didn't win their conference. 
Some years we'll get a conference champion that doesn't truly have a realistic chance at winning the playoff. I'm willing to accept that, as they did still win their conference. That's worth something, right?

medinabuckeye1

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #206 on: January 11, 2018, 03:25:53 PM »
Well the chart you posted shows that if you were operating under that assumption, going to 8 teams *with* auto-bids wouldn't basically guarantee (97%) a mulligan or make it too likely (30%) that 2-loss non-champs would get in. With auto-bids those numbers are 69% and 14%, respectively.
And yes, I get the 2012 Wisconsin problem, just like the 2010 UConn problem.
But we're not comparing my 8-team playoff against some platonic ideal. We're comparing it against a BCS that left out undefeated teams, that crowned a 2-loss LSU a champion, and that left multiple 1-loss conference champions out in order to play a rematch between non-champ Alabama and LSU. We're comparing against a CFP where the selection committee says one thing [SOS and conf champs matter] and then does the opposite. We're comparing a potentially flawed system that I propose against known flawed systems that exist.
I started the OP by saying that there's sometimes a debate between the "best teams" and the "most deserving" teams. I think an 8-team playoff with auto-bids actually serves both ends. The auto-bids are teams who deserve a chance to play for the championship by virtue of winning their conference. The at-large selection allows for the inclusion of teams that might be "the best" but who for whatever reason didn't escape their conference race unscathed and didn't win their conference.
Some years we'll get a conference champion that doesn't truly have a realistic chance at winning the playoff. I'm willing to accept that, as they did still win their conference. That's worth something, right?
This is a minor point, but those numbers aren't quite exact because the eight-team options they list are:
  • Eight teams with no auto-bids, or
  • Eight teams with auto-bids for the P5 Champions.  
I said that what I think we will eventually go to is eight teams with auto-bids for the P5 Champions AND an auto-bid for the highest ranked G5 Champion.  Including the highest ranked G5 Champion would have to slightly reduce the percentages for at-large categories because there would only be two rather than three at-large slots.  Thus, I would guess:
  • P5 Champions (regardless of # of losses), 100%
  • 1-loss P5 non-Champions, 46% (2/3 of the 69% listed by 538)
  • 2-loss P5 non-Champions, 10% (~2/3 of the 14% listed by 538)
  • Undefeated G5 Teams, ~90% because there might be two or more and one would be excluded
  • 1-loss G5 Champions, ~40%

I'm probably in the minority on this but I actually like that there currently not enough slots for the P5 Champions because that means that everyone knows that each game *could* end up being decisive.  Ohio State's loss to Oklahoma (at least in theory) could have kept the Buckeyes out of the playoffs even without the second loss because if the ACC, SEC, B12, and P12 each produced an undefeated Champion then it would be reasonable to expect 12-1 Ohio State to miss out on the CFP.  

Similarly, Bama's loss to Auburn would have kept them out either if the Pac Champion had been a decent team or if the Buckeyes had beaten either Iowa or Oklahoma.  

rolltidefan

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #207 on: January 11, 2018, 03:26:11 PM »
quick correction, 2011 didn't leave out multiple 1 loss conf champs, it left out 1, ok st. all other conf champs had 2+ losses pre-bowl selection.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 03:28:08 PM by rolltidefan »

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #208 on: January 11, 2018, 03:42:15 PM »
This is a minor point, but those numbers aren't quite exact because the eight-team options they list are:

I'm probably in the minority on this but I actually like that there currently not enough slots for the P5 Champions because that means that everyone knows that each game *could* end up being decisive.  Ohio State's loss to Oklahoma (at least in theory) could have kept the Buckeyes out of the playoffs even without the second loss because if the ACC, SEC, B12, and P12 each produced an undefeated Champion then it would be reasonable to expect 12-1 Ohio State to miss out on the CFP.  

Similarly, Bama's loss to Auburn would have kept them out either if the Pac Champion had been a decent team or if the Buckeyes had beaten either Iowa or Oklahoma.  
Agreed on the minor point. But again, that actually helps reduce the "mulligan" or "double mulligan" likelihood, albeit at the expense of the increased likelihood that an unworthy conference champ will get in.
But I'd argue that the Oklahoma loss actually DID keep OSU out. Had OSU beaten Oklahoma, they most assuredly would have gotten in over Alabama. Of course, that gives them another marquee win. But let's say OSU hadn't scheduled Oklahoma, replacing them with, say, Syracuse. A 12-1 OSU with a win over Syracuse and the loss to Iowa probably STILL would have gotten in over Bama. Yes, their loss was worse, but their conference championship would have likely elevated them.
So what the committee is basically telling teams is "schedule easier OOC because it'll help you get in." OSU scheduled tough OOC and ended up getting penalized for it. 
The takeaway from 2017 is that we'll likely see fewer marquee OOC matchups, not more, as the committee has basically shown that # of losses is a lot more important than OOC SOS. 
I think if you make the conference championship an auto-bid, helmet teams might be willing to take on more OOC chances since they know those games will prepare them better for conference play where they really need to be on top.

TyphonInc

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #209 on: January 11, 2018, 03:49:00 PM »
I saw this on fivethirtyeight:


I think this chart is Horsesh!t.

We have a 4 team playoff now. It claims an undefeated G5 team has a 25% chance of making the playoff. No. No they do not, we had an undefeated G5 champion and they were not even sniffed at.

It lists a 2 loss P5 champ behind a an undefeated G5 team. This would also be patently false, we had two, 2 loss P5 champs both ranked ahead of the undefeated G5 team.

Really, I think we only need a minor tweak to the 4 team model and move on from there. And that tweak would be to prioritize wins instead of losses. That gives the conference champion an equal footing for playing that extra end of season difficult game against non-conference champion participants.  

 

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