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Topic: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion

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betarhoalphadelta

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CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« on: January 02, 2018, 01:18:26 PM »
OK, this is being debated in the Bowl SoC thread, but the problem is wider than that. 

College Football is terrible at crowning a champion. It always has been.

At least back in the bad old days of the MNC, it was PURELY a beauty pageant. At the conclusion of the season, a bunch of journalists would vote, and the team that came out on top was declared the National Champion. Nobody made any claims about things being settled on the field. Heck, they couldn't be settled on the field when most of the teams never played anyone of note outside their own conference.

Occasionally you'd get lucky and a bowl matchup would be the #1 vs #3 and #1 would win (while the #2 team lost elsewhere), and the idea of which team was truly deserving of the title Champion was clear. Other years, not so much. You'd have bowl matchups of undefeateds #1 vs #10, #2 vs #7, and #3 vs #4, and when all three went chalk those journalists had to decide which victory was most impressive and vote accordingly. [Or more accurately, just keep #1 at #1, because they won, and #2 and #3 were left out in the cold despite finishing the season undefeated.]

That's just stupid. It's based upon an outmoded notion that the Champion should be college football's "best" team, which is a subjective measure by any rationale mind. 

Things got better with the BCS and CFP, because at least there's an effort now to match up the best teams with the best teams, but still.... That's subjective. Who are the best teams? Is it who the AP, Coaches Poll, and a couple computer models say are the best? Is it who the committee says are the best? 

The NFL doesn't have this problem. The NFL selects playoff teams based *entirely* on what happens on the field. Win your division? You're in. Lose your division but have the best two record [with tiebreakers] of the remaining teams in your conference? You're in as a wild card. From there, once you're in, you're in. You can become the champion if you prove it on the field, even if you're not the "best" team--as we saw when the wild card New York Giants beat the 18-0 New England Patriots. No, the Giants were NOT that year's "best" team. But nobody can say they didn't deserve that trophy.

NCAA basketball [mostly] doesn't have this problem. Win your conference? You're in. Now, for the at-large selections, "fairness" is a different question, but every team in Div-I knows that if they win their conference, they're in the dance. At that point it's up to them to go win it. And whichever team that is, even if it's not the "best" team in the country, they're the one that deserves to be called champion.

See the difference?

Some people in CFB want to crown the "best" team the champion.

Others want the most deserving teams to have the opportunity to earn the championship on the field.

How do you "deserve" a shot? Win your conference. If you can't manage that, one can say that you don't "deserve" to be a champion over the team that won your conference. Even if your conference's 2nd-best team is better than every other conference champion in the country, they didn't "earn" their spot on the field. Any mulligans that allow you to get at-large berths should be seen as a bonus and not entitled. There are too many teams to have a mathematical "wild card" scenario like in the NFL, so to some extent the conference runners-up may still need to be a beauty pageant. 

The only truly fair way to crown a CFB champion would be a 16-team playoff with all 10 conference champions and 6 at-large teams. That gives every team in the nation an objective measure by which they can get a seat at the table and a chance to play for it all. And it gives the rest of the teams in the country hope that with a good enough season, they *might* get the chance even without winning their conference. 

A more realistic, but not perfectly fair, scenario would be an 8-team playoff where the P5 champions are auto-bid, and the other three spots are at-large but with preference given to an undefeated G5 conference champion over a P5 runner-up. 

In either scenario, 2017 Alabama--who very well might be the "best" team in the country despite their record--would have undoubtedly been included as an at-large. But as a non-winner of their own conference, there is no way that they would have taken a slot from a team that deserved to be there for actually accomplishing something on the field--winning their own conference. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2018, 01:34:00 PM »
I fundamentally disagree with this logic because CFB and the NFL are VERY different.  

The problem is that there is a LOT more variance in CFB.  The best and worst divisions in the NFL are not all that widely separated.  They just aren't.  You can't say that about CFB.  The G5 conferences are WAY behind the P5.  It just isn't close.  Even the best G5 conference would get mauled if they played a B1G/ACC Challenge type scenario against even the worst P5 conference.  

G5 Champions this year:
  • MAC Champion Toledo lost 52-30 to the ACC's Miami
  • MWC Champion Boise lost to the PAC's WSU and the ACC's UVA
  • SunBelt co-champ ApSt lost to the SEC's UGA and the ACC's Wake
  • CUSA Champion FAU lost to Navy and Wisconsin

These teams are clearly not as good as the P5 Champions.  An argument can be made for UCF but not the others.  If you want to be "fair" and let in Toledo and FAU then you should also let in every team in the country that is at least as good as Toledo and FAU which means all but the worst few teams in each P5 conference.  

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2018, 01:40:10 PM »
i'm having this debate with a friend of mine - he's all about UCF.  My point to him is that it's true the G5 schools aren't on the same plane as P5 schools, so why do we pretend they are?  Before the season started, UCF had no path to the NC.  None.  So why waste their time?  Move them down a level, so that they can win a championship.  Ball State, Hawai'i, and 60 other schools had no path to the NC back in August.  That's wrong.

So we can either pave the way for them to be on equal footing (think affirmative action) or the P5 can be in a different division as the G5.  That would be easier, imo.

Those who want an 8-team playoff:  3-loss Auburn would be ranked 7th this year with 2-loss PAC 12 champ USC would be 8th.  And do you know the bitching that would happen?  They only ranked them like that so no SEC teams play each other in the first round.  Auburn, UGA, and Alabama could all win and move on to the 2nd round - the committee is secretly in the SEC's pocket, blah blah.

Conspiracy theorists are being conjured from college football fans and I don't know why.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2018, 01:43:50 PM »
I fundamentally disagree with this logic because CFB and the NFL are VERY different.  

The problem is that there is a LOT more variance in CFB.  The best and worst divisions in the NFL are not all that widely separated.  They just aren't.  You can't say that about CFB.  The G5 conferences are WAY behind the P5.  It just isn't close.  Even the best G5 conference would get mauled if they played a B1G/ACC Challenge type scenario against even the worst P5 conference.  
 
Yeah, the variance between P5 and G5 is a problem. Just as it's a problem in NCAA basketball where you have a field of 64, and most of those automatic-bid leagues are one-bid leagues because they have effectively zero chance of winning the championship.
But what about the alternate scenario, 8 teams with the P5 champions and three at-large berths [preference given to undefeated G5 champion], or simply with the top-ranked G5 team and 2 at-large berths? 
Seems that would include the "deserving" teams--P5 conference champions--while still allowing for the "best" teams to be represented if they didn't win their conference.

847badgerfan

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2018, 02:01:03 PM »
If we were at 8, #9 would be screaming bloody murder. If we were at 16, #17 would be screaming bloody murder.

The BCS with the +1 was mostly fine. Just get rid of the rematch part and go back to that. Also, have the +1 in an NFL stadium somewhere. Keep the bowls for what they are - especially the one in Pasadena.

F it.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2018, 02:07:40 PM »
yup, I'd rather have #3 whine than #5 or #9

it's simple, play the weakest schedule you can stomach and try like hell to go undefeated
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2018, 02:15:37 PM »
Exactly, do that until it costs you.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #7 on: January 02, 2018, 02:32:08 PM »
yup, and since it hasn't cost anyone yet............. unless you want to count UCF

I don't count them, they had no chance unless they played murder's row
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

847badgerfan

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #8 on: January 02, 2018, 02:42:52 PM »
All this talk about UCF.. OK, so it's a nice story and the coach stayed and yada yada.

But man, they gave up a LOT of points to some not so great teams. I don't like that. So, no.

No soup for you.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #9 on: January 02, 2018, 02:44:14 PM »
yup, and since it hasn't cost anyone yet............. unless you want to count UCF

I don't count them, they had no chance unless they played murder's row
To me, that isn't unfair.  UCF (and all G5 teams') SoS is inherently ridiculously weak compared to nearly any P5 team.  Thus, if you are a G5 team and you want access to the CFP, you need to play a ridiculously tough OOC to make up for your ridiculously weak Conference slate.  
UCF didn't.  Their OOC was:
  • FIU:  Finished 5-3 CUSA, 8-5 overall
  • UMD:  Finished 2-7 B1G, 4-8 overall
  • Austin Peay:  FCS
  • GaTech (cancelled):  Finished 4-4 ACC, 5-6 overall

UCF has nobody to complain to.  They scheduled an FCS team!  It is bad enough when SEC (and other P5) teams do that but at least they make up for it by playing P5 schedules.  If you are G5 and you want a CFP spot you cannot play an FCS game.  

FearlessF

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #10 on: January 02, 2018, 02:48:51 PM »
All this talk about UCF.. OK, so it's a nice story and the coach stayed and yada yada.

But man, they gave up a LOT of points to some not so great teams. I don't like that. So, no.

No soup for you.
husker fans are a bit concerned about that defense
but, remember.  They only gave up 27 to Auburn.
Auburn put 40 on UGA and 26 on mighty Bama
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #11 on: January 02, 2018, 02:52:43 PM »
If we were at 8, #9 would be screaming bloody murder. If we were at 16, #17 would be screaming bloody murder.
I don't buy that argument. #9 or #17 "screaming bloody murder" would get laughed at. 
Right now you are by default going to have at least one conference champion excluded. That's a team that believes they've done what it takes to get a seat at the table and still get excluded. Some years it's a bit off where a good team wins its conference despite a less perfect regular season [this year's OSU with 2 losses, last year's PSU with two losses], but in the year that TCU and Baylor both finished 11-1 they clearly both were "worthy enough" to get included.
In an 8-team playoff with P5 champions auto-bid, you solve the 2014 problem with TCU and Baylor and OSU still gets in. You solve the 2016 problem where PSU is left out [as B1G] champ but OSU gets in [as a 1-loss team]. This year you get OSU in [as B1G champ] and assuredly still have room for non-champion Bama. 
And if the #9 or #17 team is still complaining? Well, you should have won your conference. Take care of business and you'd be in. 

FearlessF

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #12 on: January 02, 2018, 03:31:38 PM »

In an 8-team playoff with P5 champions auto-bid, you solve the 2014 problem with TCU and Baylor and OSU still gets in. You solve the 2016 problem where PSU is left out [as B1G] champ but OSU gets in [as a 1-loss team]. This year you get OSU in [as B1G champ] and assuredly still have room for non-champion Bama.

so in your scenario this season we would have champs: OSU, USC, OU, UGA, Clemson
and Bama, Wisconsin, & UCF?
Obviously the committee might arrange their final top 8 a bit differently than with 4 teams
Penn St, Washington, Auburn, Miami, and Notre Dame get laughed at?  I'm fine with that.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: CFB Is Terrible At Crowning a Champion
« Reply #13 on: January 02, 2018, 03:52:21 PM »
so in your scenario this season we would have champs: OSU, USC, OU, UGA, Clemson
and Bama, Wisconsin, & UCF?
Obviously the committee might arrange their final top 8 a bit differently than with 4 teams
Penn St, Washington, Auburn, Miami, and Notre Dame get laughed at?  I'm fine with that.
I'd say that about rounds it up, yeah.
PSU / Washington / Miami / ND were all 2-loss teams, and Auburn was a 3-loss team. 
I'm not saying that you by definition exclude 2-loss teams for 1-loss teams, but I would say Bama and Wisconsin in this scenario would get my nod over those. 

This year I'd have UCF in regardless of whether it's "3 at large" or "highest-ranked G5 and 2 at large", but if there was no undefeated G5 team I could see leaving the G5 out for one of those 2-loss teams above. 

 

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