| For those of us who are not a fan of rematches, the Big Ten Championship has delivered. For the first team since the inaugural event in 2011, we have a rematch of a regular season matchup. 2011 had Michigan State, who beat Wisconsin on a hail mary, drop the Indianapolis rematch by 3 points, in what is still the best version of the championship game. Because of how close that first game was, the rematch didn't even feel all that dirty, because nothing felt decided. That is certainly not the case this time as we get OSU-Wisconsin Pt. II, after the Buckeyes convincingly won Pt. I, 38-7. The Wisconsin defense held up for nearly a full half, before getting overwhelmed. The Buckeyes' first three drives totaled 44 yards on 2.8 ypp. Then, with 2 minutes left in the half, standing at their own 15, Ohio State kicked it into high gear, scored a touchdown going into the break, starting a run of 5 touchdowns in 6 drives, which were a combined 313 yards on 9.5 ypp. Even with that, (1) the 34 points Ohio State scored was still more than they scored against everyone except Michigan State and Penn State; (2) only Michigan State held Justin Fields to a lower QBR; and (3) I'm willing to bet nobody else held Ohio State's starters scoreless on three consecutive drives all season. So, while it appears nobody in the Big Ten can slow Ohio State down right now, Wisconsin might be the only one with a shot. The problem is just how much Ohio State bullied Wisconsin in the trenches last game. That simply doesn't happen to Bucky, and when it does, they don't really have an alternate plan. J.K. Dobbins ran all over the Wisconsin defense, with 163 yards on 8.2 ypc, more than he had on anyone except Cincinnati and Indiana. And he's only increasing his role in the offense as the season goes on, tallying his two highest carry totals in the final two weeks of the season. Conversely, Jonathan Taylor had on 52 yards on 2.6 ypc, which were his worst numbers since...the last time Wisconsin played Ohio State. Michigan was able to hold Ohio State's pass rush largely at bay, surrendering just 2 sacks, and holding former Heisman candidate Chase Young entirely off the scoresheet. Did they help unlock something for Wisconsin, who had no answer for Young last go round, when he had 4 sacks and 2 forced fumbles? If not, forget about it, but if so, that should help them keep the game closer, for longer, so they don't have to abandon their running game, like in Columbus, where everything started to snowball. Wisconsin had to pass on 11 of 16 plays over 4 drives, which resulted in 2 three and outs and 2 punts. Ohio State has won 7 straight against Wisconsin, but until the October matchup, only that 2014 Big Ten Championship was won by more than 7 points. So I won't predict another blowout, but I also think there are probably only 2 teams in America who can play with Ohio State right now, and neither of them will be in Indianapolis on Saturday. |
