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Topic: Bowl Games SOC

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Bowl Games SOC
« Reply #686 on: January 02, 2019, 03:01:02 PM »
a great head coach and his great assistants are well paid to find motivation for the kids and get them to play well.  Even in a meaningless bowl game, because......... because it's not meaningless to the fans who write the checks

and great coaches know enough to recruit kids that are or can be motivated easily to play well
Ehh, mayyyybe some of the fringe guys to fill out a class, but no, i don't believe this comes into play at all.  All coaches think they can motivate anyone.
some 4 and 5 star recruits are only there as a step to the NFL and have been pampered since they put on pads.
Annnnd every program in the country gobbles them up as fast as they can.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MrNubbz

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Re: Bowl Games SOC
« Reply #687 on: January 02, 2019, 03:03:25 PM »
Probably not a good idea to put a yappy little dog right in front of him, dressed up in a red sweater no less... 
HA!Mess with the bull ya get the horns,congrats to the 40 Acres
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Bowl Games SOC
« Reply #688 on: January 02, 2019, 03:06:32 PM »
clearly you've never been introduced to an SEC loss in a bowl game...  they never wanted to be there, hence the loss.  
FFS, it's not an SEC thing.  Don't be smarmy.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Bowl Games SOC
« Reply #689 on: January 02, 2019, 03:07:56 PM »
how many teams did Georgia or Michigan play that were as good as their bowl opponent?
Georgia played LSU, Florida, Kentucky, and Alabama and went 2-2.  Texas would be in that group aside from Bama, so call it 2-1, or add Mizzou and call it 3-2.
Michigan played ND and Ohio State and Penn State and went 1-2.  Florida is probably roughly on par.
The simple fact is that when the 5th best team plays the 15th best team, they are in for a tough game more times than not, and will lose about 1 time in 3.  You can explain this without resorting to anything about "they didn't show up".

bayareabadger

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Re: Bowl Games SOC
« Reply #690 on: January 02, 2019, 03:16:23 PM »
On G5 vs P5:
We're often given a very good G5 team from year to year, whether it was Boise or TCU or Utah or BYU or Hawai'i or UCF or whoever it will be 2 years from now, there's a group of 5 conferences, and the best team(s) from them is usually very good.




That beings said, we don't know how good they truly are and never will.  We never will, because we can't go back in time and have an individual team play a difficult slate of games.  2008 Utah might have been the best team in the country.  But we'll never know - and not because of any disservice to them.  We'll never know, because they waited until their last game to peak and they waited until their last game to peak because their schedule was so weak.  Yes, most of that is due to their conference slate, but also OOC:
2 point win vs an eventual 3-9 Michigan
3 point win vs an eventual 9-4 Oregon State
Funny, the UM win probably gave Utah more street cred than the OSU win, but look at the records.  Close wins over a very bad team and a barely ranked/unranked team.  That doesn't suggest they'd be able to swing with the big boys.  That's fair, isn't it?  Looking at past results to make a prediction...the past results didn't say they couldn't beat a top 5 team, just that it was probably unlikely.  But, as luck would have it, Utah got a chance to play a top 5 team.  And they won!  




But we have the issue of my above post here.  Alabama had just lost all of their hopes a dreams the game before.  They had a #1 draft pick suspended.  They were playing an unsexy program.  Blah blah blah...




But toss that aside, they showed they could do it!  And that's great, it really is.  But they did it after playing the 80th-strongest schedule.  They had that magical zero in the loss column against the 80th-ranked schedule.  They literally didn't play back-to-back games in which both teams had a winning record.  Hell, if you go down their schedule, every other game was against a team with 8 or more losses.  It's astounding.




Now for the sake of argument, let's go ahead and say Utah was the best team of 2008.  How would we know?  We don't have enough data points to have any confidence in that.  Even with the comfortable win vs Alabama, their resume is severely lacking.  Is it the employer's fault that the prospective employee came to the interview with a severely deficient resume?  They might become your best worker, but you'd never hire them.  That's not on us, that's on the person/program.




If your conference affiliation prevents an undefeated season from earning you national championships, then you need to exit that conference or change the system.  Period.  TCU and Utah saw this and were proactive about it.  UCF is bitching and moaning.  Think about it - Alabama needed zero consecutive wins to make the playoff - that's how high up their program is.  They could've lost vs Georgia and still been included in the playoff - the Bama program and the SEC conference fuel that.  Right or wrong, it's true.  Now while that is the top of the mountain, other teams have found where they're at - OU found out they could make the playoff with 'only' 7 straight wins.  Ohio State found out they couldn't get in with only 5 straight wins.  Georgia, thanks to its program and conference affiliation, learned it could almost get in with zero wins, but not quite.  But it's probably a number in the single digits, to be sure.




So UCF learned this year that 25 consecutive wins wasn't enough to make the playoff.  No, last year shouldn't matter, but alas, as limited human minds involved in the decision-making process, it does.  Which is why Alabama's magic number is lower than anyone else's.  Clemson's is next lowest, and so on.  UCF needs to do what TCU/Utah did and get into a better conference OR change the system, like 2004 Auburn had a hand in, or the programs/conferences left out in 2011 did.




Saying we're pretend national champs or wanting brownie points for keeping it close is the wrong way to go about it.  
For the most part, I actually agree with this, outside the sort of easy of saying “Utah and TCU did something about it.”
They got lucky. They did some of the right things, but mostly got lucky with the right seismic shifts in the sport. UCF can do any and everything in the world, but it can’t work it’s way into a conference without the landscape of the sport changing. Chances are the system will change and the UCFs or Boises of the world will get lucky by the other means. 
(Also, the straight wins part is kinda silly, but creative in a fun way)

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Bowl Games SOC
« Reply #691 on: January 02, 2019, 03:19:30 PM »
Well, all I'm saying is that it's predictive, and were 0-2 this year and they're 2-6 in the past six years.  Favored teams that went from potential NC to no NC in their final game before the bowls.  Favored, highly-ranked teams don't go 2-6 for no reason.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 03:24:25 PM by OrangeAfroMan »
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Bowl Games SOC
« Reply #692 on: January 02, 2019, 03:22:02 PM »
(Also, the straight wins part is kinda silly, but creative in a fun way)
I actually think it could be a valid way to rank teams by up-to-the-minute helmetosity.  But it's just been an idea that's been floating around in my head recently.  ie - how few consecutive wins could a program have and still be included in the playoff - top helmet teams - single digits, G5 teams 13+, etc.  If I had to guess UCF's, it's probably in the 30s.  If they went undefeated again next year, there would be an outcry to finally give them a shot.  Alabama's is literally zero.  Georgia's is probably 3-4, other helmet programs are below ten.  Someone like Eastern Michigan...probably in the 40s or 50s - 4+ straight seasons of undefeated records to even get close.  


Up-to-the-minute in that we'd all agree Nebraska is more of a historical helmet than Georgia, but if they both went 12-1 and both lost in week 4 of this season, Georgia's getting in and UNL is left out.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 03:38:06 PM by OrangeAfroMan »
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Bowl Games SOC
« Reply #693 on: January 02, 2019, 03:35:23 PM »
The more academic way of putting it is that intrinsic motivation should be enough and often is enough.  However, the "hoopla' we call the build-up to the national championship - the race or hunt or whatever, begins to pound an extrinsic motivation into these players, and when it's removed, something is lost.



The coach's challenge is to prevent 70 college age kids from buying in to the extrinsic motivations, which is hard to do.  The cameras, interviews, talented ladies, trophies, awards, etc......replace that intrinsic motivation, and having all your players block it out is probably impossible, so you try your best to not have your 20-30 best players not buy into it all.




This is perfectly obvious, guys.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 03:38:58 PM by OrangeAfroMan »
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Bowl Games SOC
« Reply #694 on: January 02, 2019, 03:40:45 PM »
If we assume that UGA is really better than Texas, as reflected in their rankings, I think we could expect Texas to win 1 time in 3 hypothetical match ups, maybe 1 in 4.  With only one game played, the lesser probable item happened.


ELA

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Re: Bowl Games SOC
« Reply #695 on: January 02, 2019, 03:43:48 PM »
I don't disagree, but I don't think you can exclude Ohio State from the category of that.  They went into that Northwestern game thinking they'd be in with a win.  They certainly had a chance, and I don't think there's a single player in that room that was going to rationally break down the resumes.  I don't think it requires a loss to have your goals stripped away going into bowl season.  I think TCU and Baylor in 2014 also fit the mold.  I don't remember what happened to TCU that year, and while Baylor lost, they were up 20 in the 4th quarter, they certainly didn't come out and look flat or anything.

I think it can be a reason, but it can also not be a reason.  I don't think it, like anything, is universally a factor.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Bowl Games SOC
« Reply #696 on: January 02, 2019, 04:05:04 PM »
That's why I limit it to going from 100% in with a win to 100% out since they lost.  Eliminate all the "maybe" gray in between.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Entropy

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Re: Bowl Games SOC
« Reply #697 on: January 02, 2019, 04:42:58 PM »
FFS, it's not an SEC thing.  Don't be smarmy.  
it's not exclusive, just one conference embraces it more than others..

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Bowl Games SOC
« Reply #698 on: January 02, 2019, 04:54:41 PM »
Probably because it happens more often to SEC teams?  You have to first be in line for the playoff to then suddenly be left out of the playoff.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Drew4UTk

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Re: Bowl Games SOC
« Reply #699 on: January 02, 2019, 06:57:07 PM »
I think the more salient point is that bowl opponents are worthy opponents, probably better than all but 2 or 3 opponents faced all year.

Even better teams can lose to somewhat less good opponents in a single game, obviously.
i'll subscribe to this.  and i'll point out that this works in both directions... meaning, UCF is as good as all but 2 or 3 of LSU's Schedule... and that Texas is as good as all but 2 or 3 of UGA's schedule...  
and tossing in, just for good measure, that UT(the real UT) beat an Auburn team that beat the snot out of a Purdue team that put a beating on an tOSU team who beat the champion of the PAC- making UT by proxy better than the B1G, the PAC, and capable, obviously, of beating anyone not in the SEC.  or... maybe... they're in the "2 or 3" block mentioned.  Right now they're undefeated, so... 

 

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