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Topic: Big Ten Week 2

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FearlessF

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Re: Big Ten Week 2
« Reply #98 on: October 29, 2020, 10:26:03 AM »
Should Wisconsin forfeit its game with Nebraska?  It is  unclear if Wisconsin met the B1G criteria for game cancellation.
it seems unclear
Tom Shatel does not think the Badgers are ducking the Huskers


https://omaha.com/sports/huskers/football/shatel-could-nebraska-and-wisconsin-have-played-yes-but-badgers-arent-ducking-huskers/article_7249f9b5-11fa-5bb7-b9ad-a83ce8b70fdd.amp.html

T
om also thinks that if the Huskers were down 6 players and 6 coaches, they would play.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

847badgerfan

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Re: Big Ten Week 2
« Reply #99 on: October 29, 2020, 10:26:40 AM »
A blood type in Madison
Definitely my blood type. Mixed with a little O.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Big Ten Week 2
« Reply #100 on: October 29, 2020, 10:57:37 AM »
I saw that teams must play 6 games to be eligible for the B1G championship, which I didn't realize before.  So if Wiscy misses two more games, they would be ineligible?
That is correct but note that this provision is only active IF B1G teams averaged six or more games.  If the average number of games played by all B1G teams is less than six then the eligibility threshold is "no fewer than two less games than the average".  Further, as I understand it, the average is rounded to the nearest whole game so in order for this provision to be activated the average for all other teams would have to drop below 5.5.  

Example:  Suppose that the following occur:
  • Wisconsin misses three games and plays five, going 5-0.  
  • One other B1G team missed three games.  
  • All other B1G teams miss two games each.  

The average for all B1G teams would be 5.86 (82 games played by 14 teams, 82/14=5.86).  That IS less than six, but as I understand it, they round the average so it is six not "less than six" so Wisconsin is ineligible.  

At this point we have one cancellation so, if all other games are played, the average will be 7.86.  

The goofy thing to keep an eye on for now is that if Wisconsin ends up 6-1 while a B1G-W team that plays all eight games loses to Wisconsin and finishes 7-1, Wisconsin will go to the B1GCG, NOT the 7-1 B1G-W team that has a better winning percentage.  This is because if two teams are tied in the loss column and have a different number of wins the H2H winner prevails.  

Note, however, that this applies only to teams tied in the loss column, not teams tied in the win column.  Thus, if Wisconsin goes 6-1 while another B1G-W team beats Wisconsin and goes 6-2, Wisconsin goes to the B1GCG based on their superior winning percentage.  

Maybe I'm reading something wrong, but it seems like that favors teams that miss a game.  


FearlessF

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Re: Big Ten Week 2
« Reply #101 on: October 29, 2020, 11:28:27 AM »
The Big Ten has nixed a proposed deal that would have allowed Nebraska to replace its canceled game this Saturday against Wisconsin with a game against FCS foe Chattanooga, sources told ESPN.

Nebraska's scheduled Big Ten game with Wisconsin was canceled after all Wisconsin team-related activities were paused this week due to an increased number of COVID-19 cases within the program.

Nebraska, in trying to find a replacement at the last minute, had put together a deal to face Chattanooga, which lost to Western Kentucky 13-10 last week. It was the Mocs' only game this fall. The Southern Conference voted to play its season in the spring, and Chattanooga's next scheduled game is Feb. 20 against VMI.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

FearlessF

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Re: Big Ten Week 2
« Reply #102 on: October 29, 2020, 11:29:20 AM »
apparently, the Commish isn't concerned with his popularity numbers
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

847badgerfan

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Re: Big Ten Week 2
« Reply #103 on: October 29, 2020, 11:42:49 AM »
it seems unclear
Tom Shatel does not think the Badgers are ducking the Huskers


https://omaha.com/sports/huskers/football/shatel-could-nebraska-and-wisconsin-have-played-yes-but-badgers-arent-ducking-huskers/article_7249f9b5-11fa-5bb7-b9ad-a83ce8b70fdd.amp.html

T
om also thinks that if the Huskers were down 6 players and 6 coaches, they would play.
Why would the Badgers duck a win?

I see a lot of Husker fans saying that too. Try getting a win against UW once in a while. Then go ahead and chirp.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

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Re: Big Ten Week 2
« Reply #104 on: October 29, 2020, 11:46:11 AM »
this Husker fan isn't saying that, neither is the writer

some Husker fans are delusional and think it would be a sure win w/o the #1, #2, & #3 QB.

I'll agree it would greatly improve the Sker's chances, but....... I've watched this series closely

I'm just frustrated there won't be a game to watch Saturday.  Guessing other fans are frustrated.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Big Ten Week 2
« Reply #105 on: October 29, 2020, 12:34:32 PM »
Definitely my blood type. Mixed with a little O.
It's Madison. It's mixed with a little C2H6O.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Big Ten Week 2
« Reply #106 on: October 29, 2020, 12:46:10 PM »
Maybe I'm reading something wrong, but it seems like that favors teams that miss a game. 
It favors a team that misses a game that is a probable loss. Missing a game that is a probable win while keeping a game that is a probable loss is bad.

For example, let's say that Purdue is likely to finish, for example, 5-3 with a win over Indiana and a loss to Wisconsin. Consider the outcomes:

  • Play Wisconsin, miss Indiana: Finish at 4-3, for a 57% win percentage, and an extra loss against your record (loss column being more important than win column).
  • Play both: Finish 5-3, or 62.5% win percentage.
  • Play Indiana, miss Wisconsin: Finish 5-2, for a 71% win percentage, for an advantage in the loss column AND in the win percentage.

Obviously this doesn't account for the chance of getting upset in the game you were a probable win, but that would be bad regardless.

For Wisconsin, I don't think they gain by missing the Huskers. If they wanted to duck any team on their schedule, it would be Michigan as that would be their most probable loss IMHO. 


Of course if they're down 6 starters and 6 coaches, if it turns a game against the Huskers that was a probable win into a much more probable loss, then maybe it's better to miss the game. 

Entropy

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Re: Big Ten Week 2
« Reply #107 on: October 29, 2020, 01:23:22 PM »
Nebraska fans would rather watch their team lose than not watch them at all.    I don't think Wisc would lose to Nebraska even with their 3rd string QB.  But I do believe if roles were reversed, UNL would have played.  I firmly believed that. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Big Ten Week 2
« Reply #108 on: October 29, 2020, 01:35:49 PM »
Nebraska fans would rather watch their team lose than not watch them at all.    I don't think Wisc would lose to Nebraska even with their 3rd string QB.  But I do believe if roles were reversed, UNL would have played.  I firmly believed that. 
I'm sure Wisconsin fans wished they were playing Saturday. But as we've said through this whole thing, the people who make the decisions (King Barry / Wisconsin President/BoT & the Big Ten) may have different priorities and different risk tolerances than we do. 

As I said, I'm interested to see what happens next weekend. I'm also concerned that if Purdue plays Wisconsin, even undermanned they might be more than we can handle. Even if they have a QB who we KNOW is going to hand off on every play, can we stop that rushing attack? I'm not sure. They've steamrolled us every single year since 2004. 

Entropy

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Re: Big Ten Week 2
« Reply #109 on: October 29, 2020, 01:39:20 PM »
If twitter is any representation of fan bases in the BIG, then I'd suggest OSU and Nebraska are in stark contrast to the rest of the BIG.

847badgerfan

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Re: Big Ten Week 2
« Reply #110 on: October 29, 2020, 02:27:37 PM »
In what way?
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Big Ten Week 2
« Reply #111 on: October 29, 2020, 03:40:45 PM »
I'm sure Wisconsin fans wished they were playing Saturday. But as we've said through this whole thing, the people who make the decisions (King Barry / Wisconsin President/BoT & the Big Ten) may have different priorities and different risk tolerances than we do.

As I said, I'm interested to see what happens next weekend. I'm also concerned that if Purdue plays Wisconsin, even undermanned they might be more than we can handle. Even if they have a QB who we KNOW is going to hand off on every play, can we stop that rushing attack? I'm not sure. They've steamrolled us every single year since 2004.
Wisconsin obviously leans on the run so playing a 4th/5th/6th string QB hurts them less than it would hurt most teams.  That said, it obviously hurts them more against a team that can DEFINITELY stop their rushing attack if they don't have to worry about the passing game than against a team that might not be able to stop Wisconsin's rushing attack anyway.  

In more concrete terms, I think it turns the Michigan game (scheduled for 11/14) into an almost sure loss* but it would turn the games against Nebraska and Purdue (scheduled for 10/31 and 11/7 respectively) into something closer to toss-ups.  

My thinking here is that Michigan's defensive interior is good enough that with nine guys in the box they can absolutely force UW to pass they ball.  Further, their CB's are good enough that even with nine guys in the box they would still have a pass defense at least good enough to go up against a guy whose last pass was thrown on a Friday night in high school.  I'm not so sure about either of those things with UNL and PU.  Wisconsin might just be good enough to bully their way through with their running game against nine man fronts from UNL and PU and further, I have less confidence in the ability of UNL's and PU's CB's to play the entire freaking game in man coverage with zero safety support and not get lit up.  

*The one possible exception to this is if it ends up being an addition by subtraction situation (or at least neutral) where the 4th/5th/6th string QB comes in and just plays lights out like what happened with tOSU and Cardale Jones back in 2014 when tOSU lost their QB in the Michigan Game and then Cardale Jones came in and lit up Wisconsin, Alabama, and Oregon in the B1GCG, CFP Semi-Final, and CFP Championship.  Cardale Jones in those three games:
  • B1GCG vs UW:  12/17 for 257 yards with 3 TD's and 0 INT's, 92.1 QBR
  • CFP vs Bama:  18/35 for 243 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT, 71.5 QBR
  • CFP vs Oregon:  16/23 for 242 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT, 70.7 QBR
For comparison, JT Barrett in the three previous games (against notably weaker opponents):
  • vs Michigan:  13/21 for 176 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT's, 95.9 QBR
  • vs Indiana:  25/35 for 302 yards with 4 TD's and 2 INT's, 47.3 QBR
  • vs Minnesota:  15/25 for 200 yards with 3 TD's and 1 INT, 96.2 QBR

Cardale Jones was at least as good and did it on the biggest possible stage against three of the best teams in the nation.  It isn't very often that your backup can come in and do that and it is even less likely that the backup's backup can do it.  It happens, but it is extremely rare.  Usually there is a very good reason that the starter is the starter and the backup is the backup.  


 

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