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Topic: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 14 (before the CCG)

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LittlePig

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Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 14 (before the CCG)
« on: December 01, 2024, 07:23:01 AM »
Well, Ohio St's loss did not change OSU's spot in my power rankings,  but it killed OSU's chances to finish #1 after the CCG.  On the other hand, it created a great opportunity for Penn St to move up next week,  and it did help Michigan's ranking.

1.  Oregon -  the only team that's still undefeated.

2.  Ohio St - despite loss to Mich,  OSU still has wins over PSU and Indiana.

3.  Indiana - despite losing to OSU 2 weeks ago,   overall I am still impressed with Indiana's dominance over all the other teams on its schedule.

4.  Penn St -  PSU was dominant in a lot of games,  but also lost to Ohio ST at home,  and almost lost twice on the road,  beating USC in OT, and beating  Minnesota by 1.

5.  Michigan -  this is based mostly on how Mich finished the season,  beating OSU on the road, plus a close loss at Ind.  This ranking is not based on how Mich played earlier this year,  when they lost to Illinois and Wash.

6.  Iowa - Iowa is just one of those teams that always wins a couple more games than the stats suggest they should.

7.  Illinois - they may be 9-3 but I consider ILL the luckiest team,  winning 2 games in OT this year,  plus a miracle win at Rutgers in last seconds.

8.  Minnesota-  Minn had a lot of close losses this year and a good win at Illinois.  Overall a good team

9.  Rutgers - Rutgers finished season strong after looking like they had collapsed in mid-season.

10.  USC - played a lot of close games,  good enough to take PSU into OT,   but also  was only team to lose to MD.

11  Washington - not a bad year,  just could never win on the road.

12.  UCLA -  decent finish after a bad start to the season

13.  Nebraska. - Bowl elligible for first time since 2016.  That's progress.  

14.  Wisconsin - streak of 22 straight winning seasons and 22 straight bowl games comes to an end.   Wisc was good enough to blow out the bad teams,  but not good enough to beat even the average teams.

15.  Mich St. - MSU blows chance to make a bowl.  The team just fell apart at the end of the season.  

16.  Northwestern. - 2 victories are over Purdue in OT and over MD

17. Purdue - wiinless but lost 2 games in OT

18.  Maryland - did beat USC at home,  but was awful in too many games this year.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2024, 08:08:00 AM by LittlePig »
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ELA

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 14 (before the CCG)
« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2024, 10:56:08 AM »

  • OREGON (1) - no question now
  • OHIO STATE (2) - can't drop them, but no argument for #1 now either
  • PENN STATE (3) - another change for Big Game James to change the narrative
  • INDIANA (4) - knew they had to win convincingly, and certainly did so
  • MINNESOTA (7) +2 (+9)
  • IOWA (5) +1 (+61)
  • ILLINOIS (6) +1 (+31)
  • MICHIGAN (12) +1 (-8)
  • USC (9) E (+36)
  • WASHINGTON (10) E (E)
  • UCLA (11) E (-9)
  • WISCONSIN (8) E (-50)
  • RUTGERS (15) -1 (-37)
  • MICHIGAN STATE (13) -1 (-40)
  • NEBRASKA (14) -2 (+8)
  • NORTHWESTERN (16) - showed some fight
  • MARYLAND (17) - had Indiana fans dreaming for a minute
  • PURDUE (18) - rock bottom?


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847badgerfan

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 14 (before the CCG)
« Reply #2 on: December 01, 2024, 11:02:40 AM »
1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Indiana
4. Penn State
5. Iowa
6. Minnesota
7. Illinois
8. Michigan
9. Nebraska
10. Rutgers
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Temp430

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 14 (before the CCG)
« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2024, 01:01:39 PM »
1. Oregon
2. Penn State
3. Indiana
4. Ohio State
5. Iowa
6. Illinois
7. Washington
8. Michigan 
9. Minnesota
10. USC
11. Nebraska
12.  Wisconsin
13.  Rutgers
14. Michigan State
15. UCLA
16. Maryland
17. Northwestern
18. Purdue
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 14 (before the CCG)
« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2024, 01:22:36 PM »
Ohio State is #1 against all but Michigan and about #15 against Michigan. 

Do you ever get the feeling of Deja Vu?

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LittlePig

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 14 (before the CCG)
« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2024, 01:54:42 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 01, 2024, 01:22:36 PM
Ohio State is #1 against all but Michigan and about #15 against Michigan.

Do you ever get the feeling of Deja Vu?
That's especially bad when you consider that Michigan has only played 9 teams.
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Benthere2

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 14 (before the CCG)
« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2024, 02:07:32 PM »
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SFBadger96

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 14 (before the CCG)
« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2024, 02:48:56 PM »
This one is hard for me this week. Or harder, at least.

1) Oregon: Obviously.
2)...

I guess it's still Ohio State? They looked genuinely good against Penn State in State College. That has to be worth something. And they abused Indiana. So they are here, right? But that loss to Michigan is a bad loss. It's not just head-to-head, it's how you play against everyone else. And that loss to Michigan, at home--even in a rivalry game--looks bad. But bad enough to move them down below Penn State? Probably not. So Ohio State, with reservations.

3) Penn State: have a chance to prove they are really #1 this weekend.
4) Indiana: curious to see what they can do in the playoff.
5) Iowa. Because: Iowa.
6) Minnesota: that was a solid beating on a rival, in the rival's house.
7) Illinois: even with Michigan's win, I'm sticking with the head-to-head here: Illinois gets the nod.
8) Michigan: that's a good win.
9) Washington: got smoked, but Oregon does that to most teams.
10) USC: competitive against ND.
11) Nebraska: losing to Iowa in a competitive game is reasonable.
12) Wisconsin: by default. Because the teams below deserve it.
13) Rutgers: impressive win over Michigan State
14) UCLA: kind of the bottom of the mediocre?
15) Michigan State: win against Iowa gets a look, but the rest of their season is pretty rough.
16) Northwestern: Beat Maryland and Purdue, so this is pretty straight forward.
17) Maryland: ouch.
18) Purdue: o-fer. Is Maryland worse? Maryland beat USC. God only knows how, but it happened.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 14 (before the CCG)
« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2024, 04:01:46 PM »
Now that the season is complete, here is the entire schedule/performance table:


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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 14 (before the CCG)
« Reply #9 on: December 02, 2024, 04:31:59 PM »
A few years ago I started comparing teams based on how they did against each opponent relative to that teams' other opponents, here is the table, then I'll explain it below:

Explanation:
What I am doing here is ranking each teams' nine opponents.  Looking at Oregon, all nine of their opponents lost to them so:

  • Ohio State is #1 because they only lost to them by 1
  • Wisconsin is #2 because they only lost to them by 3
  • Maryland is #3 because they lost to them by 21 in Eugene
  • Michigan, Michigan State, and UCLA are tied for #4/5/6 because they each lost to them by 21 at home.  They each get a #5.  
  • ...
  • Purdue is #9 because they lost to Oregon by 35 which is worse than any other team.  

Notes:
  • I only use HFA to break ties.  I do NOT add/subtract from the MOV based on location.  

Each team thus ends up with nine points of comparison so, for Oregon:
  • They were the best against Illinois and Michigan.  
  • They were second-best against Ohio State, Washington, and UCLA.  
  • They were fourth-best against Maryland.  
  • They were fifth-best against MSU and PU.  
  • They were sixth-best against Wisconsin.  
Now that the season is complete each team has nine data points so the averages are:
  • 2.56 Ohio State
  • 3.11 Oregon
  • 3.22 Penn State
  • 3.33 Indiana
  • 4.00 Michigan
  • 4.17 Minnesota
  • 4.44 Iowa
  • 4.61 USC
  • 4.94 Washington
  • 5.22 UCLA
  • 5.33 Nebraska
  • 5.44 Wisconsin
  • 5.56 Illinois
  • 6.00 Rutgers
  • 6.17 Maryland
  • 6.78 Northwestern
  • 7.00 Michigan State
  • 8.11 Purdue


I hesitate to post this because I'm afraid people are going to see it as a Buckeye fan grasping at straws and/or trying to argue that Ohio State is #1.  I'm not.  For one thing, I've been doing a ranking this way for YEARS so this isn't something I invented this year trying to make tOSU look good.  Beyond that, I think the more interesting differences between our rankings and this list are USC and Illinois.  Most humans have Illinois pretty high but this method does not like them AT ALL.  They are all the way down at #13.  This method does like USC as they are MUCH higher here than most humans have them.  
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LittlePig

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 14 (before the CCG)
« Reply #10 on: December 02, 2024, 04:55:11 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 02, 2024, 04:31:59 PM



  • 2.56 Ohio State
  • 3.11 Oregon
  • 3.22 Penn State
  • 3.33 Indiana
  • 4.00 Michigan
  • 4.17 Minnesota
  • 4.44 Iowa
  • 4.61 USC
  • 4.94 Washington
  • 5.22 UCLA
  • 5.33 Nebraska
  • 5.44 Wisconsin
  • 5.56 Illinois
  • 6.00 Rutgers
  • 6.17 Maryland
  • 6.78 Northwestern
  • 7.00 Michigan State
  • 8.11 Purdue

These rankings do help feed into my theory that Illinois is just lucky and not as good as its record. 

But I have to concede these rankings probably undervalue the teams that always seem to find a way to win when a game is close at the end.  This is something Illinois was good at this year and Iowa was good at last year.  This is also is something that Nebraska and USC have not been good at.  Which probably explains why Illinois beat Neb in OT this year and why Iowa keeps beating Neb with FG's on the last play of the game (its happened 4 times since 2018). 

Or maybe some teams are just lucky,  what do I know?
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FearlessF

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 14 (before the CCG)
« Reply #11 on: December 02, 2024, 05:39:00 PM »
better to be lucky than good
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FearlessF

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 14 (before the CCG)
« Reply #12 on: December 02, 2024, 05:42:06 PM »
after 14 weeks, I'll give it a try

Oregon
Ohio State
Penn State
Indiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Iowa
USC
Washington
UCLA
Nebraska
Illinois
Wisconsin
Rutgers
Maryland
Northwestern
Michigan State
Purdue
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SFBadger96

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Re: Big Ten Power Rankings After Week 14 (before the CCG)
« Reply #13 on: December 02, 2024, 05:58:44 PM »
I like the computer models. I think they are useful. Same for yours, Medina.

Your version looks like it may struggle with the strenght of schedule: Oregon played a weaker schedule than Ohio State, but it still won all of its games. They also don't do a good job of capturing the teams that are better or worse in close games. Sometimes it's just luck, but when you get a consistent set of results, it starts to suggest that some teams handle the stress of close games better. That is a behavior that can be learned/coached, so when you have a team that consistently wins or consistently loses those close games, I think it's fair to take it out of the luck category.

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