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Topic: .900 decades

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Cincydawg

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #28 on: July 21, 2021, 01:08:15 PM »
This is some ftbobs level analysis.

AP top-10:
  • 322 (69.1%) Ohio State, first nationally
  • 171 (36.7%) Nebraska, eighth nationally
  • 139 (29.8%) Penn State, tied for 14th/15th nationally
  • 139 (29.8%) Michigan, tied for 14th/15th nationally
  • 109 (23.4%) Wisconsin, 19th nationally

So, in 28 years, OSU has been in the top ten for over 2/3rds the times rankings came out.  Whoever is second nationally is probably in the 40s????





medinabuckeye1

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #29 on: July 21, 2021, 01:09:51 PM »
Does the "Club of Helmets" have a fixed number as a limit?
I agree with @FearlessF :
don't think so
I also agree with @847badgerfan :
Pretty hard to get kicked out of that club.
Some of the Michigan fans have argued that the "Helmets" were permanently set as of the 1970's and can never change.  I strongly disagree with this.  Minnesota was a "helmet" in the early days of CFB up until WWII and they clearly are NOT now.  I think that the same thing can and will happen to teams that we think of as helmets today.  

That said, Badge has a good point.  Once you ARE a helmet, you don't fall out of that club for having a bad year or two or even necessarily for having a bad decade or two.  However, if you fail to "look like" a helmet for long enough, eventually you will no longer be a helmet.  Exactly how bad you have to be and for how long for this to happen are not explicitly stated but I strongly believe that the possibility exists.  

Another way to put it is that maintaining helmet status is considerably less demanding than attaining helmet status.  Consider, for example, if Wisconsin and Michigan met in this year's CFP Championship game: 

IMHO, the outcome of the game would be irrelevant to Michigan's "helmet status".  They already are a helmet and advancing to the CG is sufficient to remind everyone that they ARE a helmet.  Losing that game wouldn't hurt them at all and winning wouldn't really help because simply getting there would already have done more than enough to maintain Michigan's "helmet status".  

Conversely, the outcome of the game would be HIGHLY relevant to Wisconsin's "helmet status".  They aren't a helmet and winning NC's is a REALLY good way to become a helmet.  Getting to the CG is great but plenty of non-helmets have been to CG's.  Oregon made it in 2014.  Clemson wasn't a helmet yet when they first got there.  Auburn and VaTech both got to the BCSCG.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #30 on: July 21, 2021, 01:16:31 PM »
This is some ftbobs level analysis.

AP top-10:
  • 322 (69.1%) Ohio State, first nationally
  • 171 (36.7%) Nebraska, eighth nationally
  • 139 (29.8%) Penn State, tied for 14th/15th nationally
  • 139 (29.8%) Michigan, tied for 14th/15th nationally
  • 109 (23.4%) Wisconsin, 19th nationally

So, in 28 years, OSU has been in the top ten for over 2/3rds the times rankings came out.  Whoever is second nationally is probably in the 40s????
This is a great site for anything you want to look up involving AP Polls.  Not only can you look at EVERY single individual AP Poll ever released (all 1,185 from the first one released October 19, 1936 [MN was #1] to the 2020 final poll) but you can also look at things by year or group of years or look at team histories.  

To answer your question, no #2 isn't in the 40's.  Actually, #5 Oklahoma is in the 40's (47.9%) while UF, Bama, and FSU are all over 50%.  Your own school is #6, joined by LSU and Nebraska by being ranked in more than one-third of the AP top-10's while Texas and Notre Dame round out the top-10 at just under one-third.  

847badgerfan

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #31 on: July 21, 2021, 01:17:55 PM »
Since PSU joined in 1993 (28 seasons from 1993-2020):

AP Appearances:
  • 428 (91.8%) Ohio State, first nationally
  • 351 (75.3%) Michigan, fourth nationally
  • 288 (61.8%) Wisconsin, 12th nationally
  • 282 (60.5%) Nebraska, 14th nationally
  • 268 (57.5%) Penn State, 18th nationally
  • 166 (35.6%) Michigan State, 27th nationally
  • 153 (32.8%) Iowa, tied for 29th/30th nationally
It's tough to put a lot of stock in this, because some teams are overrated consistently, to start the season. Looking at #2 here.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #32 on: July 21, 2021, 01:35:01 PM »
I never said Wisconsin is a helmet school. All I meant was that UW is a better program than Michigan.
And I think that's true. Since Alvarez started coaching and then since he took over the AD position, Wisconsin IMHO has been better-managed as a program than Michigan. They formulated an identity that allowed them somewhat of a zig while others zagged, and they've managed to maintain and execute to that identity ever since. Michigan went spread-to-run, then whatever Hoke did, and then got a micromanager at the helm who can't get out of his own way. 

But that's the point of a helmet. Two bad coaches in a row and Wisconsin will be "just Wisconsin" again, as they were pre-Barry. One good coach for Michigan and they're "back". 

Cincydawg

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #33 on: July 21, 2021, 01:35:45 PM »
That could be an influence for teams that consistently end up ranked lower at the end of the year than they started.

Which College Football Teams Are Always Overrated in August? | FiveThirtyEight

reseason darlings that fail to live up to hype
Teams that received votes* in either the preseason or final AP Top 25 Poll in at least 16 seasons, 1997-2016
[th][/th]
[th]FINAL VS. PRESEASON RANK[/th]
[th]TEAM[/th]
[th]AVG. PRESEASON RANK[/th]
[th]SAME[/th]
[th]BETTER[/th]
[th]WORSE[/th]
Notre Dame25.110%20%70%
Texas13.4102070
Florida State9.4102070
Penn State25.252570
Florida12.003070
Ohio State8.053065
Nebraska19.103565
LSU12.203565
Miami (Fla.)17.7152560
Tennessee15.9152560
Oklahoma6.6152560
Michigan15.0103060
Southern California13.2103060
Virginia Tech17.653560
West Virginia25.9103555
Texas A&M25.2103555
Alabama15.154055
BYU33.0153550
Georgia Tech27.3104050
Georgia13.854550
South Carolina26.9203545
Oklahoma State26.3203545
Michigan State22.7203545
Arkansas31.1104545
Auburn20.655045
Wisconsin19.105545
Mississippi29.2204040
TCU22.2204040
Utah30.555540
Oregon18.906040
Boise State25.3155035
Clemson21.1155035


« Last Edit: July 21, 2021, 01:41:26 PM by Cincydawg »

847badgerfan

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #34 on: July 21, 2021, 01:50:38 PM »
One good coach for Michigan and they're "back".
Back to what?

Win 9, lose 2, lose Rose Bowl?
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #35 on: July 21, 2021, 02:51:18 PM »
It is nice of Tennessee and Nebraska to provide us with a case study for exactly how long it will take for a 70s "Helmet" to lose their lofty status. 

They aren't there yet, as both could theoretically be "back" with the right hire. (As opposed to "wow, someone is actually winning at Minnesota? That's unheard of!")
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #36 on: July 21, 2021, 03:17:13 PM »
I wondered about UGA and checked 2011-2020 and got this:


Not bad of course, but not "elite".  The first five were under Richt and you can see he was doing fairly well, Smart had three good years.

I saw a thing that showed Smart's record thus far is 1 game different than Richt's was in the same timeframe in his start at UGA.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #37 on: July 21, 2021, 04:42:14 PM »
That could be an influence for teams that consistently end up ranked lower at the end of the year than they started.
Which College Football Teams Are Always Overrated in August? | FiveThirtyEight
reseason darlings that fail to live up to hype
Teams that received votes* in either the preseason or final AP Top 25 Poll in at least 16 seasons, 1997-2016
I generally love 538's stuff but I'm REALLY not a fan of the way they did this comparison.  I think the more important question than how often a team under or over achieved relative to preseason ranking is "by how much"? 

My point is that tOSU's average preseason ranking for 1997-2016 was #8.  Their preseason and final ranking matched 5% of the time (once), did better 30% of the time (six times) and did worse 65% of the time (13 times).  That sounds bad but if they finished one place lower than they started 13 times and a whole bunch of places higher six times I'd argue that they were actually underrated on average.  It is a question of mean vs median. 

Looking at those years for Ohio State:

  • Once in 20 years (5%) the Buckeyes finished where they started
  • Four times in 20 years (20%) the Buckeyes finished within +/-1 of where they started
  • Six times in 20 years (30%) the Buckeyes finished within +/-2 of where they started
  • Nine times in 20 years (45%) the Buckeyes finished within +/-3 of where they started
  • 10 times in 20 years (50%) the Buckeyes finished within +/-4 of where they started
  • 11 times in 20 years (55%) the Buckeyes finished within +/-6 of where they started
  • 12 times in 20 years (60%) the Buckeyes finished within +/-7 of where they started
Then they improved and regressed by double-digits twice each:
  • Up 15 spots in 2012
  • Up 12 spots in 2002
  • Down 11 spots in 2004
  • Down 10 spots in 2013

It is harder to figure out what to do with years when a team either starts or finishes unranked.  In the case of the Buckeyes it has been a while since they started unranked but they did finish unranked four times between 1997 and 2016:
  • 1999 They started #9 then skidded to 6-6 and unranked
  • 2000 They started #16 and finished 8-4 and barely unranked
  • 2011 They started #18 then skidded to 6-7 and unranked
  • 2001 They started #23 and finished 7-5 and not too far outside the rankings


Cincydawg

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #38 on: July 21, 2021, 04:45:02 PM »
Yeah, he mentions that as a weakness in the overall crude measurement.


FearlessF

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #39 on: July 22, 2021, 09:12:48 AM »
crude or otherwise, I like it that ND and UT are #1 & 2
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