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Topic: .900 decades

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medinabuckeye1

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.900 decades
« on: July 19, 2021, 06:43:32 PM »
This is the Platinum standard of excellence.  A few years ago I compiled rolling 10-year records for the consensus helmets and a few near-helmets.  I went back far enough that the first 10-year record ended with the advent of the AP Poll (1927-1936) and I've kept it up to date since. 

The schools I included (in order of their BEST 10-year record) were:

  • .9245 Oklahoma
  • .9130 Alabama
  • .8917 Miami, FL
  • .8911 Florida State
  • .8810 Nebraska
  • .8763 Notre Dame
  • .8705 Clemson
  • .8615 Ohio State
  • .8553 Michigan
  • .8548 Tennessee
  • .8534 Penn State
  • .8527 Texas
  • .8333 USC
  • .8200 Florida
  • .8106 LSU


So I now have this data for 1,275 10-year periods (85 for each school X 15 schools).  In the dataset there are only five 10-year periods in which a school had a record of .900 or better, they are:
  • .9245 Oklahoma from 1949-1958 went 97-7-2
  • .9245 Oklahoma from 1948-1957 went 97-7-2 (10-1 in both 1948 and 1958)
  • .9130 Alabama from 2011-2020 went 126-12
  • .9095 Oklahoma from 1947-1956 went 94-8-3
  • .9071 Alabama from 2009-2018 went 127-13


That is it, just one per 255 chances and note that there have NEVER been two at the same time. 

Interestingly, three schools could actually achieve this distinction in the decade that will be concluded with the 2021 season:


Alabama:
The Tide went .9120 (114-11) from 2012-2020 so when 2021 is added to that they have a chance to add a third .900 decade.  For the Tide:

  • 15-0 does it .9214
  • 14-1 does it .9143
  • 13-1 does it .9137
  • 12-1 does it .9130 (highly unlikely because if they went 11-1 with no CCG they'd probably make the CFP)
  • 13-2 does it .9071
  • 12-2 does it .9065
  • 11-2 does it .9058
  • 12-3 does it .900 (the only way this could happen is if they made the SECCG and had 2 losses after the SECCG but made the CFP, won the semifinal, and lost the CG)


Ohio State:
The Buckeyes went .9060 (106-11) from 2012-2020 so when 2021 is added to that they have a chance to at a school-first .900 decade.  For the Buckeyes:

  • 15-0 does it .9167
  • 14-1 does it .9090
  • 13-1 does it .9084
  • 12-1 does it .9077
  • 13-2 does it .9015
  • 12-2 does it .9008
  • 11-2 does it .900



Clemson:
The Tigers went .8880 (111-14) from 2012-2020 so when 2021 is added to that they have a chance to get to exactly .900.  They would need to go 15-0 to do it. 


Theoretically all three could make it (Clemson goes 15-0, Bama and tOSU both finish with two or less losses). 
« Last Edit: July 19, 2021, 10:52:33 PM by medinabuckeye1 »

Cincydawg

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2021, 06:49:58 PM »
Interesting indeed.

FearlessF

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2021, 07:01:44 PM »
the 4-team playoff could be a factor in this?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2021, 10:15:39 PM »
the 4-team playoff could be a factor in this?
It is in a several different ways.  

For one thing it means that only one team can go undefeated.  Back in the 1980's it would have been at least theoretically possible for Clemson to go undefeated, win the ACC, and win the Orange Bowl while Bama went undefeated, won the SEC, and won the Sugar Bowl and Ohio State went undefeated, won the BigTen, and won the Rose Bowl.  Now, of course, they'll run into each other.  

A second way that the modern landscape has made it more difficult is that good teams have tougher schedules because they have extra games (CCG's, CFP semifinals, CFP CG) against TOUGH opponents.  Back in the 1980's there were no CCG's and even if you went undefeated your bowl opponent might not be all that good.  Once in a while the Pac10 Champion could be a 4-loss team.  Now if you go 12-0 that gets you into a CCG against a strong conference opponent and if you also win that you get a CFP semifinal against a strong opponent and if you win that you get a CFPCG against a strong opponent.  

OTOH, this provides more opportunities.  Back in the 1980's you were playing 11 games a year and 12 IF you got a bowl.  Now you have 12 and if you go 12-0 you will play at least 14 (CCG+CFP) and if you go 14-0 you will play a 15th game.  

847badgerfan

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2021, 11:25:56 AM »
Great stuff. I wonder what Wisconsin's best decade is. Probably the one we're in.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2021, 01:01:00 PM »
Great stuff. I wonder what Wisconsin's best decade is. Probably the one we're in.
Probably.  It takes a LOT of data entry to set this up but once it is set up it is pretty easy to maintain.  If I ever get slow at work again I'll get B1G teams entered.  

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #6 on: July 20, 2021, 01:57:18 PM »
What was Wisconsin's worst decade? The 1980s, thereabouts? 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

Cincydawg

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #7 on: July 20, 2021, 02:03:51 PM »
I wondered about UGA and checked 2011-2020 and got this:


Not bad of course, but not "elite".  The first five were under Richt and you can see he was doing fairly well, Smart had three good years.

847badgerfan

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #8 on: July 20, 2021, 02:04:09 PM »
What was Wisconsin's worst decade? The 1980s, thereabouts?
It was going decent until Dave McClain died. I'm guessing a stretch from the mid 60's to the mid 70's was the worst. There are rough spots throughout.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #9 on: July 20, 2021, 03:14:49 PM »
I wondered about UGA and checked 2011-2020 and got this:


Not bad of course, but not "elite".  The first five were under Richt and you can see he was doing fairly well, Smart had three good years.

8 win seasons aren't enuff
ask Bo Pelini
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2021, 04:54:18 PM »
I wondered about UGA and checked 2011-2020 and got this:


Not bad of course, but not "elite".  The first five were under Richt and you can see he was doing fairly well, Smart had three good years.
Comparison to the 15 teams that I have rolling 10-year records for:
2011-2020:
  • .9130 Alabama, 126-12
  • .8705, Clemson, 121-18
  • .8615 Ohio State, 112-18
  • .8092 Oklahoma, 106-25
  • .7578 LSU, 97-31
  • .6953 Florida State, 89-39
  • .6822 Notre Dame, 73-34
  • .6720 Penn State, 84-41
  • .6694 USC, 83-41
  • .6557 Michigan, 80-42
  • .6429 Florida, 81-45
  • .6032 Miami, FL, 76-50
  • .5794 Texas, 73-53
  • .5528 Nebraska, 68-55
  • .4918 Tennessee, 60-62


So Georgia would be 5th on this list and should possibly be included as a "Helmet".  Their current .77 is elite or at least darn close to it.  As you can see, there are a lot of REALLY big name schools that wish they had won 77% of their games over the last decade.  

Ohio State has the potential to move up a LOT when we move to 2012-2021 because on the current list, 2011 is by far the Buckeyes' worst (6-7) and that is the year about to be replaced.  Conversely LSU and Alabama went 13-1 and 12-1 respectively in 2011 so even if either were to go 15-0 in 2021 they wouldn't improve that much because they'd only be subtracting one loss and adding two or three wins.  

847badgerfan

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2021, 05:09:03 PM »
2011-2020 UW is .740. Not too shabby. Many of those losses are to Ohio State too... blerp...
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #12 on: July 20, 2021, 05:16:37 PM »
8 win seasons aren't enuff
ask Bo Pelini
Richt was fired after successive ten win seasons.  The metric for the elite teams is however NCs, anything less is less.  I remember when making a major bowl game was a great season.  What will be the top non-playoff bowl game now?  The Tangerine or whatever it will be called?


Brutus Buckeye

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #13 on: July 20, 2021, 05:17:40 PM »
Many of those Wisconsin  wins are against the Wolverines, so it all evens out.
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

 

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