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Topic: .900 decades

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847badgerfan

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #14 on: July 20, 2021, 05:26:19 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on July 20, 2021, 05:17:40 PM
Many of those Wisconsin  wins are against the Wolverines, so it all evens out.
Wisconsin has displaced Michigan in the conference's pecking order, but both are still really great at losing to fOSU.
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FearlessF

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #15 on: July 20, 2021, 05:56:50 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2021, 05:09:03 PM
2011-2020 UW is .740. Not too shabby. Many of those losses are to Ohio State too... blerp...
not shabby a tall
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #16 on: July 21, 2021, 10:41:24 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 20, 2021, 05:26:19 PM
Wisconsin has displaced Michigan in the conference's pecking order . . .
I wish this were true for two reasons:
  • Pragmatically, Wisconsin is further away and thus competes head-to-head with tOSU for recruits less frequently, and
  • Emotionally just because I despise Michigan.  

That said, I'm not sure that this actually IS true.  

On the basis of current/recent wins, league titles and so-forth, this clearly is true but the rather vague concept of "Helmetosity" is harder to nail down.  
Winning percentage since:
  • 2020:  Wisconsin leads .5714 to .3333
  • 2019:  Wisconsin leads .6667 to .57895
  • 2018:  Michigan leads .65625 to .64706
  • 2017:  Wisconsin leads .7292 to .6444
  • 2016:  Wisconsin leads .7419 to .6724
  • 2015:  Wisconsin leads .7467 to .6901
  • 2014:  Wisconsin leads .7528 to .6506
  • 2013:  Wisconsin leads .7451 to .6354
  • 2012:  Wisconsin leads .7241 to .6330
  • 2011:  Wisconsin leads .7308 to .6557
Note that for the last 10 years (2011-2020) Wisconsin is 10th nationally behind mostly the usual suspects (Bama, Clemson, tOSU, Oklahoma, BoiseSt, ApSt, UGA, LSU, and Oregon).  
  • 2006:  Wisconsin leads .7385 to .6216
Note that for the last 15 years (2006-2020) Wisconsin is 8th nationally behind mostly the usual suspects (tOSU, Bama, BoiseSt, Oklahoma, Clemson, ApSt, and LSU).  
  • 2001:  Wisconsin leads .7066 to .6437
Note that for the last 20 years (2001-2020) Wisconsin is 12th nationally behind mostly the usual suspects (tOSU, BoiseSt, Oklahoma, ApSt, Bama, LSU, UGA, Clemson, USC, Oregon, and TCU).  
  • 1996:  Wisconsin leads .7111 to .6753
Note that for the last 25 years (1996-2020) Wisconsin is 9th nationally behind mostly the usual suspects (tOSU, BoiseSt, Oklahoma, UGA, Bama, LSU, Florida, and Oregon)
  • 1991:  Wisconsin leads .6940 to .6870
Note that for the last 30 years (1991-2020) Wisconsin is 8th nationally behind tOSU, BoiseSt, Florida, Oklahoma, Bama, FSU, and UGA.  
  • 1986:  Michigan leads .7000 to .6276

The bottom line is that you have to look back all the way to the late 1980's in order to find Michigan consistently ahead of Wisconsin in winning percentage.  

League titles since:
  • 2011:  Wisconsin leads 3-0, note that the Badgers are tied with MSU for 2nd behind tOSU (5)
  • 2006:  Wisconsin leads 3-0, note that the Badgers are tied with MSU for 2nd behind tOSU (9)
  • 2001:  Wisconsin leads 3-2, note that the Badgers are tied MSU and PSU for 2nd behind tOSU (11)
  • 1996:  Wisconsin and Michigan are tied for 2nd with five each behind tOSU (13)
  • 1991:  Michigan leads 7-6, note that M and UW are 2nd and 3rd behind tOSU (14)

The bottom line is that you have to look back all the way to the early 1990's to find more league titles for Michigan than for Wisconsin.  

Looking at those figures it is pretty clear that overall since about 1993 Wisconsin has been the league's second best team.  1993, of course, was Alvarez' breakout season.  The Badgers went 10-1-1, tied tOSU, won the league, and won the Rose Bowl.  Prior to that they hadn't finished above .500 since 1984 and hadn't played in the Rose Bowl since JFK was in the White House (1/1/1963).  

Curiously, however, if you look at poll appearances since 1993 the Wolverines have a SIGNIFICANT lead over the Badgers (351 or 75.3% to 288 or 61.8%).  Why?  Helmetosity.  The Wolverines get (or at least got) the benefit of the doubt and the Badgers don't (or at least didn't).  

Wisconsin is much closer in top-10 appearances since 1993 (109 or 23.4% for UW, 139 or 29.8% for M).  

Wisconsin has been the better team for about 30 years but unfortunately I still think that Michigan has the bigger "helmet".  


What would it take for Wisconsin to surpass Michigan in "helmet"?  IMHO the answer is NC's.  Even within the last 30 years Michigan DOES have an NC.  They split it with Nebraska in 1997.  Wisconsin . . .  

For casual and non-local fans the NC is really the only thing that moves the needle significantly.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #17 on: July 21, 2021, 10:44:29 AM »
Do casual fans confer helmetosity?  I could argue they do.  And media types, who are casual fans.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #18 on: July 21, 2021, 10:59:20 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 21, 2021, 10:44:29 AM
Do casual fans confer helmetosity?  I could argue they do.  And media types, who are casual fans.
We have had a lot of discussions about it here and a couple touchstones that we have come up with to "measure" helmetosity are these:
  • Ability to recover from a lengthy down period.  Bama is a great example here:  They were sub .500 as recently as the 10-years from 1998-2007 and look at them now.  So ask yourself "could this team recover from a decade of mediocrity?"  
  • NAME.  Though I hate to admit it, Michigan is a great example here.  The relevant question isn't "which teams get in the news?" because any winning team will get in the news.  The relevant question is "which teams get in the news even when they suck?"  Michigan does, Wisconsin doesn't.  


Wisconsin:
Ability to recover from a lengthy down period:
I have to give this an "unknown".  Since Alvarez' breakout league and Rose Bowl winning season in 1993 the Badgers have had a few down years (sub .500 in 95 and 01, near .500 in 02, 03, 08, and 12) but all teams have those.  They haven't had a long string of mediocre or worse seasons.  Could they recover from a sub .500 decade like the Tide had from 1998-2007?  I don't know.  My guess is probably not, or at least not to the extent that Bama recovered but we haven't seen such a decade from the Badgers since before 1993 so we really can't know.  

NAME:
Does Wisconsin get talked about when they suck?  My view is not really.  If Bama, Ohio State, Michigan, or Notre Dame ends up 5-7 this year, they'll still be in the news heading into 2022.  Would Wisconsin?  My guess is no or at least not to the extent that Bama/tOSU/M/ND would be.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #19 on: July 21, 2021, 11:11:13 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 21, 2021, 10:44:29 AM
Do casual fans confer helmetosity?  I could argue they do.  And media types, who are casual fans.
Interestingly, way back in 2007 when Stewart Mandel did his first Kings, Barons, Knights, and Peasants column your school was the one that had kicked off the whole discussion.  A PSU fan asked Mandel to expound on the "national prestige" of PSU vs UGA and Mandel responded that even though UGA had been MUCH better than PSU over the years leading up to that time, he still thought of PSU as a "national power" and did NOT think of UGA in the same category.  

IMHO, UGA still isn't quite there but they are getting awfully close and it is probably close to inevitable that they will eventually get there.  In the last decade Georgia has passed Michigan to become the 8th most populous state.  30 years ago (1990) they were 11th.  50 years ago (1970) they were 15th.  At current growth levels they will almost catch Ohio for 7th before the 2030 census then pass both Ohio and Illinois in the 2040 census.  

The Dawgs are almost there already but they simply lack the hardware.  If they maintain their consistently good records and pick up a few NC's in the next decade or so then I think they'll be an obvious helmet.  
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #20 on: July 21, 2021, 11:13:43 AM »
The other metric is recruiting. 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-recruiting-rankings-schools-with-the-best-classes-on-average-over-the-past-five-years/

Last year Michigan's 5-year recruiting ranking was 8th in the nation with an average class ranking of 10.6. 

Wisconsin didn't make the top 25. 

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847badgerfan

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #21 on: July 21, 2021, 11:15:57 AM »
I never said Wisconsin is a helmet school. All I meant was that UW is a better program than Michigan.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #22 on: July 21, 2021, 11:18:53 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 21, 2021, 11:15:57 AM
I never said Wisconsin is a helmet school. All I meant was that UW is a better program than Michigan.
I didn't mean to be argumentative, it is a hazy concept.  
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #23 on: July 21, 2021, 12:11:25 PM »

I had just assumed that Penn St was the second best Big Ten team over that time period. It is sort of surprising that they are not even in the discussion, but not as surprising as Michigan being part of that discussion. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #24 on: July 21, 2021, 12:26:22 PM »
Does the "Club of Helmets" have a fixed number as a limit?
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FearlessF

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #25 on: July 21, 2021, 12:34:23 PM »
don't think so
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847badgerfan

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #26 on: July 21, 2021, 12:45:45 PM »
Pretty hard to get kicked out of that club.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: .900 decades
« Reply #27 on: July 21, 2021, 12:58:25 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on July 21, 2021, 12:11:25 PM
I had just assumed that Penn St was the second best Big Ten team over that time period. It is sort of surprising that they are not even in the discussion, but not as surprising as Michigan being part of that discussion.
Since PSU joined in 1993 (28 seasons from 1993-2020):
Overall winning percentage of league teams:
  • .8188 Ohio State, first nationally
  • .7087 Wisconsin, 9th nationally
  • .6864 Nebraska, 14th nationally (most of this time was in the Big12)
  • .6859 Penn State, 15th nationally
  • .6754 Michigan, 17th nationally
  • .6003 Iowa, 31st nationally
  • .5683 Michigan State, 36th nationally
That is the top half, Northwestern is 8th (56th nationally at barely over .500).  

League titles:
  • 14 Ohio State, 6 shared and 8 outright
  • 6 Wisconsin, 2 shared and 4 outright
  • 5 Michigan, 3 shared and 2 outright
  • 4 Penn State, 2 shared and 2 outright
  • 3 Michigan State, 1 shared and 2 outright
  • 3 Northwestern, 2 shared and 1 outright
  • 2 Iowa, both shared
  • 1 Purdue, shared
  • 1 Illinois, outright
That works out to 39 titles in 28 seasons because prior to the B1GCG co-titles were frequent:
  • tOSU and UW in 1993
  • tOSU and NU in 1996
  • tOSU, UW, and M in 1998
  • M, NU, and PU in 2000
  • tOSU and IA in 2002
  • M and IA in 2004
  • tOSU and PSU in 2005
  • tOSU and PSU in 2008
  • UW and MSU in 2010


AP Appearances:
  • 428 (91.8%) Ohio State, first nationally
  • 351 (75.3%) Michigan, fourth nationally
  • 288 (61.8%) Wisconsin, 12th nationally
  • 282 (60.5%) Nebraska, 14th nationally
  • 268 (57.5%) Penn State, 18th nationally
  • 166 (35.6%) Michigan State, 27th nationally
  • 153 (32.8%) Iowa, tied for 29th/30th nationally
That is the top half, Northwestern is 8th with <20%.  

AP top-10:
  • 322 (69.1%) Ohio State, first nationally
  • 171 (36.7%) Nebraska, eighth nationally
  • 139 (29.8%) Penn State, tied for 14th/15th nationally
  • 139 (29.8%) Michigan, tied for 14th/15th nationally
  • 109 (23.4%) Wisconsin, 19th nationally
  • 45 (9.7%) Michigan State, 29th nationally
  • 30 (6.4%) Iowa, 36th nationally
That is the top half, Northwestern is 8th with ~2%.  


My crack at ranking our league since 1993 (it is a little goofy wrt Nebraska):
  • Ohio State:  First in win%, league titles, AP Appearances, and AP top-10's.  
  • Wisconsin:  Second in win% and league titles, third in AP Appearances, fifth in AP top-10's.  
  • Nebraska:  Third in win%, no league titles in THIS league but they do have Big8/12 titles, fourth in AP Appearances, second in AP top-10's.  
  • Michigan:  Fifth in win%, third in league titles, second in AP Appearances, tied for 3rd/4th in AP top-10's.  
  • Penn State:  Fourth in win%, fourth in league titles, fifth in AP Appearances, tied for 3rd/4th in AP top-10's.  
  • Michigan State:  Seventh in win%, fifth in league titles, sixth in AP Appearances, sixth in AP top-10's.  
  • Iowa:  Sixth in win%, seventh in league titles, seventh in AP Appearances, seventh in AP top-10's.  
  • Northwestern:  Eighth in win%, sixth in league titles, eighth in AP Appearances, eighth in AP top-10's.  

I ended up ranking eight rather than seven (half) simply because Northwestern was obviously next.  That also indicates that the drop-off after Northwestern is severe.  


I see Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan, and Penn State as a nearly equal "second tier" over these 28 years.  They are all reasonably close in each of these metrics.  After that i see MSU, IA, and NU as the "third tier".  The other six (RU, UMD, IU, PU, IL, MN) are each capable of an occasional good season but are generally just not good.  
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