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Topic: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 13

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LittlePig

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Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 13
« on: November 20, 2023, 12:19:29 PM »

There are now 8 teams that are Bowl elligible.  Mich 11-0,  OSU 11-0,  PSU 9-2, Iowa 9-2,  Rut 6-5,  MD 6-5,  NW 6-5,  Wisc 6-5


3 teams are eliminated MSU 4-7,  PUR 3-8,  Ind 3-8

There are 3 teams that are 5-6 and need 1 win to be bowl elligible:  Neb, Minn, ILL.  None of them play each other

It is still possible for as many as 11 teams to be bowl elligible,  and as few as 8, but I am guessing it will be more like 10 teams.


FearlessF

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Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 13
« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2023, 12:27:22 PM »
I'm hopin Big Ten officiating crews are looking out for the conference's financial interests this weekend and giving the nod to teams that need a win to become eligible 
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

LittlePig

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Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 13
« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2023, 12:29:24 PM »
Current projections

Number of bowl slots:  82
Number of teams currently bowl elligible:  67
Number of teams needing 1 win to be bowl elligible:  24

So my guess is that 78 out of 82 will be filled with bowl elligible teams with 6 wins.  The unused bowl slots would be filled in the following order:

1. James Madison (transition)
2. Jacksonville State (transition)
3. Minnesota (APR 992)
4. Rice (987)
5. Mississippi State (985)
6. UCF (984)
7. South Carolina (983)
8. Florida (977)


So there is a chance Minnesota could get a bowl slot if they finish 5-7. 
ILLINOIS, Nebraska, MSU have no chance at 5-7

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 13
« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2023, 12:35:45 PM »
There are 3 teams that are 5-6 and need 1 win to be bowl elligible:  Neb, Minn, ILL.  None of them play each other
Spreads for those three:
  • Illinois is a 6 point favorite at home against Northwestern. 
  • Nebraska is a 1.5 point favorite at home against Iowa.
  • Minnesota is a 1.5 point home dog against Wisconsin. 


FearlessF

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Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 13
« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2023, 05:36:10 PM »
Nebraska is a 1.5 point favorite at home against Iowa.

Line musta moved - Hawks were favored by 1
did Brian bow out?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

LittlePig

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Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 13
« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2023, 11:53:46 AM »
In addition to the APR ranked schools listed above, 
These four come in to play with a win.
Wake (992)
Michigan State (982)
Ball State (980)
Middle Tennessee (978)

Also I guess the PAC has a rule that teams will not accept a bowl bid at 5-7,  so no need to look up PAC APR's. This could maybe screw Cal in their last year in the PAC

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 13
« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2023, 12:31:56 PM »
Nebraska is a 1.5 point favorite at home against Iowa.

Line musta moved - Hawks were favored by 1
did Brian bow out?
Right now according to my phone:
  • Nebraska -2.5
  • Illinois -6
  • Minnesota +1.5


LittlePig

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Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 13
« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2023, 01:20:06 PM »
Big Ten bowl projections

CFP Bowl - Rose - Ohio St

NY6 Bowl - Orange - Michigan
NY6 Bowl - Peach -  PSU

Citrus - Iowa
Reliaquest - None
Las Vegas - NW
Music City -  Wisc
Pinstripe - MD
Guarunteed Rate - Rutgers
Quick Lane -  Minn

None -  NEB, ILL, MSU, Ind, Pur



LittlePig

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Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 13
« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2023, 02:45:20 AM »
Going into Saturday

Nebraska is now out at 5-7.  Neb has no chance with its lower APR rank to make a bowl at 5-7.

Mich St is now out at 4-8.  MSU had an extremely small chance to make a bowl at 5-7 but that's gone now.

Mich, Ohio St, PSU, Iowa, Rut, MD, NW, Wisc are bowl elligible.

PUR, Ind, Neb, MSU are out.

Minnesota is 5-6 and needs to beat Wisc to become bowl elligible.  Minn has a 26% chance to make a bowl at 5-7 due to its APR rank being so high.

ILL is 5-6 and needs to beat NW to become bowl elligible.  ILL has no chance to make a bowl at 5-7 due to its lower APR rank.

Going into Saturday:
Total number of bowl slots: 82
In: 69
Out: 43
5-6: 17
Other: 1 (Navy at 5-5)

So there are 13 slots still need to be filled and 18 teams that still could get to 6 wins.

If all 82 spots are not filled,  the next 2 in would be James Madison and  then Jax St,  both in the 2nd year of transition from FCS to FBS and both have at least 6 wins.

After that 5-7 teams are picked based on APR ranking.

Assuming about 9 out of 18 of the 5 win teams do actually win,  that leaves about 4 spots,  2 for JMU and JSU, and 2 spots for 5-7 teams.  If Minn ends up 5-7,  they might be 2nd on the APR  after the dust settles, but that's a lot of ifs.  Better if Minn just beats Wisc if they want to make a bowl

LittlePig

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Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 13
« Reply #9 on: November 26, 2023, 09:02:33 AM »
So the final game has been played on Saturday with Col St losing to Hawaii.

82 bowl slots available

79 teams are now bowl elligible with 6 wins.

So James Madison and Jax St will go to bowls as FCS/FBS transition schools filling slots #80 and #81.

Navy is 5-6 and has 1 game remaining in 2 weeks against Army.  There is some confusion on whether the bowls will wait for the Army-Navy game to see if Navy is available or choose a 5-7 now that has the highest APR rank, which is Minnesota.

So the final slot might go to Navy if they beat Army in 2 weeks or it might go to Minnesota who is the 5-7 team with the highest APR rank.  All other 5-7 teams are out unless an elligible team turns down a bowl invite.


ELA

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Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 13
« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2023, 01:01:55 PM »
Updated SOR/SP+ Playoff

  • #1 MICHIGAN vs. #4 OHIO STATE
  • #2 Georgia vs. #3 Florida State


Under 2024 12 team format

  • #12 Liberty at #5 OHIO STATE; winner vs. #4 Washington
  • #11 Missouri at #6 Texas; winner vs. #3 Florida State
  • #10 Ole Miss at #7 Oregon; winner vs. #2 Georgia
  • #9 PENN STATE at #8 Alabama; winner vs. #1 MICHIGAN

ELA

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Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 13
« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2023, 03:42:44 PM »
Thinking this past weekend eliminates a lot of conspiracy talk

If the Big Ten refs were acting in the interest of the perceived best interests of the conference, they screwed up.  OSU, Minnesota, Illinois and Nebraska all lost.  So now the school the Big Ten apparently hates is in the CCG, and 3 schools wound up ineligible for bowls, with losses to teams that were already in

LittlePig

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Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 13
« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2023, 03:56:42 PM »
Sounds like Minnesota is going to make a bowl at 5-7. They are not going to wait until after the Army-Navy game this year to see if Navy gets 6 wins.  So that must mean Navy had to have 6 wins before the Army-Navy game to be bowl elligible.  One of the trade offs of scheduling a game a week after Bowl Selection Sunday.  

Of course, I guess if one team drops out later because of Covid or whatever,  then I guess the bowl could take Navy then.

LittlePig

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Re: Big Ten Bowl Elligibility before Week 13
« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2023, 04:02:10 PM »
So with Minnesota going to a bowl,  these are current projections

Mich. -  CFP playoff bowl - Rose
Ohio St - Orange
Penn St. - Peach
Iowa - Citrus
MD -  Las Vegas
Wisc - Music City
NW - Guarunteed Rate
Rut - Pinstripe
Minn -  Quick Lane

 

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