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Topic: B1GCG Races

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FearlessF

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #42 on: October 29, 2023, 12:43:20 PM »
do the math
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #43 on: October 29, 2023, 01:21:36 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 29, 2023, 12:43:20 PM
do the math
Well okay, but you're not going to like it. 

IF Northwestern wins out then, in accordance to my calculations, the only help that they would need is for Nebraska to lose... twice. 

Needing Nebraska to lose to both Iowa and Wisconsin is a lot better than needing Nebraska to beat one or the other or both. So the odds aren't really all that long at this point. 
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LittlePig

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #44 on: October 29, 2023, 02:06:37 PM »
So I believe this what each team needs to do to win the West, without getting into complicated tiebreakers. 

Minn -  needs to win out, that's it. But THE catch is that Minn still needs to play OSU.  Minn has beat Neb, Iowa and lost to NW and still needs to play Wisc.

Neb  - Needs to win out and Minn needs to lose one.  Neb has beat NW and lost to Minn and still needs to play Wisc, Iowa

Iowa - Needs to win out and Minn to lose once.  Iowa has beat Wisc and lost to Minn.  Still needs to play NW, Neb.

Wisc -  Needs to win out and for Iowa to lose once.  Wisc has lost to Iowa and still needs to play NW, Neb, Minn

NW - needs to win out and Neb to lose twice.  NW has beat Minn and lost to Neb.  NW still needs to play Iowa, Wisc

PUR - Purdue needs to win out and Iowa, Wisc,  Neb all lose 3 times and Minn lose twice.  Purdue has beat ILL and lost to Mich, Wisc, Iowa, Neb.  Purdue still has to play Minn, NW, OSU, Ind

ILL -  Needs to win out and have Wisc, Neb lose 3 times,  Iowa, Minn lose twice, PUR lose once. ILL has beat MD and lost to PSU, Neb, PUR, Wisc.  ILL still has to play Minn, Ind, IOWA, NW.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2023, 02:13:16 PM by LittlePig »
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #45 on: October 29, 2023, 02:24:00 PM »
...and if none of them win out? :098:
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #46 on: October 29, 2023, 02:34:07 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 29, 2023, 12:18:08 PM
The B1G West's big 4 are all tied for first place, with the Wildcats lurking in the shadows one game behind that quadruple conglomerate.

So... what would need to happen in order for Northwestern to sneak through the myriad of tiebreakers and secure their third trip to Indianapolis?
I'm not taking on all of this but I'll take an overall look at 2-3 Northwestern and the four 3-2 teams. Before I do that let me clarify that I do NOT think that the 1-4 teams (IL and PU) are mathematically eliminated but they are practically eliminated.

3-2 Iowa (beat UW, lost to MN):
  • Vs NU at Wrigley, 11/4
  • Vs RU 11/11
  • Vs IL 11/18
  • At UNL Friday 11/24
3-2 Minnesota (beat UNL and IA, lost to NU)
  • Vs IL 11/4
  • At PU 11/11
  • At tOSU 11/18
  • Vs UW 11/25
3-2 Wisconsin (lost to Iowa)
  • At IU 11/4
  • Vs NU 11/11
  • Vs UNL 11/18
  • At MN 11/25
3-2 Nebraska (beat NU, lost to MN)
  • At MSU 11/4
  • Vs UMD 11/11
  • At UW 11/18
  • Vs Iowa Friday 11/24
2-3 Northwestern (beat MN, lost to UNL)
  • Vs Iowa at Wrigley 11/4
  • At UW 11/11
  • Vs PU 11/18
  • At IL 11/25
Minnesota controls their own destiny but they are the only one of the group that still has to play one of the big three.


If you assume that Minnesota will lose in Columbus then Iowa and Nebraska control their own destiny.

Wisconsin gains control of their destiny is Iowa loses any of their remaining games.

Northwestern needs help. It might be mathematically impossible for 5-4 to win the division and even if it isn't, it will be soon. Thus, as a practical matter they need to win out. Then it would come down to tiebreakers and their only loss would be Nebraska so they would probably win a big 6-3 tie.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #47 on: October 29, 2023, 02:57:37 PM »
If Northwestern wins out, then ole What's-his-nuts will be a shoo-in for Big Ten Coach of the Year. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #48 on: October 29, 2023, 03:00:57 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 29, 2023, 02:24:00 PM
...and if none of them win out? :098:
There is a good chance that none of them will but if the Champion is 6-3 it will almost certainly be a multi-team tie.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #49 on: October 29, 2023, 03:01:36 PM »
Sorry @LittlePig , I was typing while you were.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #50 on: October 29, 2023, 03:51:04 PM »
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LittlePig

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #51 on: October 29, 2023, 03:56:42 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 29, 2023, 03:01:36 PM
Sorry @LittlePig , I was typing while you were.
No problem.  As others mentioned,  I didn't even bother to get into complicated 3-way or 4-way tiebreakers if nobody wins out.  Agree that most likely the West winner will have at least 3 losses.  
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LittlePig

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #52 on: October 29, 2023, 03:58:57 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 29, 2023, 02:24:00 PM
...and if none of them win out? :098:

That's too hard to figure out.  I just say let's do Rock Paper Scissors Lizard Spock. 
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MarqHusker

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #53 on: October 29, 2023, 04:08:31 PM »
This year's big ten west race is akin to the play in 16 v 16 games in Dayton.
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FearlessF

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #54 on: October 29, 2023, 06:16:32 PM »
I'll simply wait 2 or 3 weeks and then start to worry
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1GCG Races
« Reply #55 on: October 30, 2023, 12:29:44 PM »
Update on the potential 3-way tiebreaker in the B1G-E:

Note:
If PSU, tOSU, and M all go 11-1 (tOSU>PSU>M>tOSU) the first potentially decisive tiebreaker is the league records of their B1G-W opponents. 

At this point those are:
Ohio State, 7-8, .467

  • 1-4 Purdue 
  • 3-2 Minnesota 
  • 3-2 Wisconsin 
Michigan, 7-8, .467
  • 1-4 Purdue 
  • 3-2 Minnesota 
  • 3-2 Nebraska 
Penn State, 6-9, .400
  • 1-4 Illinois 
  • 2-3 Northwestern 
  • 3-2 Iowa

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