Me too.
Me three.
Assuming that they need to and do make a change as Alvarez is already advocating, it isn't a matter of the B1G catering to tOSU. It is a matter of the B1G not screwing over their only realistic CFP contender. Here are the B1G teams currently in the CFP rankings:
- #4 tOSU, 4-0
- #12 IU, 5-1 lost to tOSU
- #14 NU, 5-1 lost to MSU
- #16 UW, 2-1 lost to NU
- #19 IA, 4-2 lost to NU and PU
With two losses, Iowa is out.
I believe that NU is also out because their loss is BAD. They lost by two scores to a sub .500 team. Teams have gotten in in the past with bad losses similar to that but those teams generally had a lot of dominating wins whereas Northwestern's only blowout win was over Maryland. The rest were by 1, 7, 8, and 10 points. Those teams also had longer seasons and thus more wins to offset the loss.
Wisconsin's problem, IMHO, is lack of games. There isn't a set minimum and if they were undefeated at 3-0 I think they'd have a chance but they need good wins to offset that loss. Their Indiana game this weekend could provide one as could their scheduled game against Iowa on 12/12. Maybe if they win convincingly over Indiana and Iowa then beat tOSU Champions Weekend but other than that, I don't see it.
That leaves Indiana. The Hoosiers have two wins over teams that were ranked at the time but both of those teams (PSU, M) are now sub .500 and unranked. I can't see how they would be taken over tOSU by the CFP after they lost H2H to the Buckeyes. I know it has happened before with tOSU over PSU a few years ago but there were some significant differences:
- When tOSU went over PSU despite a H2H loss, tOSU had a better record. That could only happen for IU this year vis-a-vis tOSU if the Buckeyes lose out.
- When tOSU went over PSU despite a H2H loss, PSU's two losses were BAD. That would only be the case if tOSU loses out.
Ie, I don't think IU has a chance unless they win out AND tOSU loses out.
So, as I see it, the B1G has one serious CFP contender in Ohio State. Then they have two more possible contenders but both are tenuous at best. Wisconsin needs convincing wins the next two weeks and an opportunity to play tOSU Champions weekend. Indiana needs to win out and for tOSU to lose out.
The IU/UW game this weekend is key. The loser is out and the winner will be the B1G's second highest ranked team.