Over in last week's version of this thread
last week's version of this thread @LittlePig asked then answered whether or not Illinois could still get to the CG.
Mathematically they can still get a share of the B1G-W title but all of the following need to happen:
- They need to win out (@IA, vsNU)
- UW needs to lose out (vsUNL, @MN)
- IA needs to lose their other game (@UNL)
- MN needs to lose their other game (@IU)
- PU needs to lose at least one of their last two (vsNU, vsIU)
If all of that happens it would create a four or five-way tie for the B1G-W Championship at 5-4 between Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, and Purdue if they go 1-1.
In the five-way tie the H2H2H2H2H would be:
- 3-1 Wisconsin: beat IL, PU, IA; lost to MN
- 2-2 Purdue: beat IL, IA; lost to MN, UW
- 2-2 Illinois: beat IA, MN; lost to UW, PU
- 2-2 Minnesota: beat UW, PU; lost to IA, IL
- 1-3 Iowa: beat MN; lost to IL, UW, PU
Wisconsin goes to the CG.
In the four-way tie (without PU) the H2H2H2H would be:
- 2-1 Wisconsin: beat IL, IA; lost to MN
- 2-1 Illinois: beat IA, MN; lost to UW
- 1-2 Minnesota: beat UW; lost to IA, IL
- 1-2 Iowa: beat MN; lost to IL, UW
That eliminates the Gophers and Hawkeyes. The Badgers and Illini then revert to their two-team H2H where the Badgers won.
Wisconsin goes to the CG.
As described above, the Illini are still mathematically in the race for a share of the title but they have been eliminated from CG contention along with Nebraska and Northwestern. That leaves:
- 5-2 Wisconsin (vsUNL, @MN): They control their own destiny so if they win out they are in and even if they lose a game they are still very much in the race because they hold H2H wins over all other contenders except Minnesota.
- 5-2 Iowa (vs IL, @UNL): The Hawkeyes would be in much better shape if they had lost to one of their B1G-E opponents instead of two B1G-W contenders but they didn't so here we are. They need a Wisconsin loss.
- 4-3 Minnesota (@IU, vsUW): The Gophers need at least one Iowa loss.
- 4-3 Purdue (vsNU, vsIU): The Boilermakers' last to games are against the worst team in the West then the worst team in the East and both are at home so they should finish 6-3 but they have H2H losses to both Wisconsin and Minnesota and they are a game behind Iowa whom they beat so they are going to need a lot of help.
There are still 256 relevant possible outcomes because the following eight games all have at least some bearing on the B1G-W Championship (2^8=256 and I'm not making up a 256 row spreadsheet to cover them all):
- UNL@UW
- IL@IA
- MN@IU
- NU@PU
- IA@UNL
- UW@MN for the Ax!
- IU@PU for the Oaken Bucket
- NU@IL
