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First, NU and UNL are definitely mathematically eliminated because they each have 5+ losses and the UW/MN and MN/IA winners can do no worse than 5-4.  

Second, Illinois is practically eliminated and probably mathematically eliminated because even if they won out they'd only be 5-4 which would be no better than a tie with the UW/MN and MN/IA winners.  I can't figure out a way for IL to win any of the potential ties.  

That leaves the four teams currently tied atop the standings at 4-2.  Here is each team's record against the other three:

• 2-0 Wisconsin, MN remaining
• 1-0 Minnesota, IA and UW remaining
• 1-2 Purdue
• 0-2 Iowa, MN remaining

Wisconsin and Minnesota obviously control their own destiny and the Ax game could be for a trip to Indy.  

Purdue needs the eventual UW/MN winner to lose a game before winning that.  


Iowa needs both UW and PU to lose a game.  

I think there is at least 1 mathematical possibility for ILL

ILL wins its last 2 games against Iowa, NW
Wisc loses its last 3 games against NW, Neb, Minn
Purdue loses its last 3 games against OSU, NW, Ind
Iowa loses to ILL and Neb, but beats Minn
Minn loses to Iowa and Ind but beats Wisc

If all that happens, ILL, Iowa, Minn finish in a 3-way tie for 1st.  ILL would win the tie by going 2-0 against Minn and Iowa.

I think there is at least 1 mathematical possibility for ILL

ILL wins its last 2 games against Iowa, NW
Wisc loses its last 3 games against NW, Neb, Minn
Purdue loses its last 3 games against OSU, NW, Ind
Iowa loses to ILL and Neb, but beats Minn
Minn loses to Iowa and Ind but beats Wisc

If all that happens, ILL, Iowa, Minn finish in a 3-way tie for 1st.  ILL would win the tie by going 2-0 against Minn and Iowa.

I don't see anything that is mathematically impossible here so I guess you are right, Illinois is still mathematically in the race.  In this situation the final standings would be:

• 5-4 Illinois
• 5-4 Iowa
• 5-4 Minnesota
• 4-5 Wisconsin
• 4-5 Purdue
• 3-6 Nebraska
• 3-6 Northwestern

All seven teams would be within +/-2 games and you are right that Illinois would win the H2H2H tiebreaker with Iowa and Minnesota.  

This *MIGHT* be the only way for Illinois to get there.  Possibilities:

• If Illinois loses any remaining game they are obviously out.  
• If Wisconsin were to beat MN then the 3-way tie would be IL, IA, and UW and Wisconsin is 2-0 there.  
• If Wisconsin were to beat either NU or UNL that would create a 4-way tie where UW and IL were both 2-1 so UW wins that.  
• If Purdue were to win any of their remaining games that would create a 4-way tie between IL, IA, MN, and PU, see below.  
• If Iowa were to beat UNL they'd win outright.  
• If MN were to beat IA they'd win outright.  

So I *THINK* that the ONLY way for Illinois to get to Indy is to win a 3-way tie with IA and MN.  Otherwise they are out.  

Double checking . . .

Ok, that isn't quite it.  Illinois would also win a 2-way tie with either IA or MN if the other one lost an extra game.  

Still, Illinois' chances are remote due to needing specific results in almost every remaining game involving a B1G-W team.