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Topic: B1G-W race, a lot could be decided this weekend

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medinabuckeye1

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B1G-W race, a lot could be decided this weekend
« on: October 01, 2021, 12:58:58 PM »
I realize that it is early but this weekends' Iowa@UMD and M@UW games could go a long way toward determining the B1G-W champion.  Here are the contenders in order of power ranking rather than record:

  • #3 Iowa, 1-0 with a 28 point home win over #9
  • #6 Wisconsin, 0-1 with a 6 point home loss to #1
  • #10 Purdue, 1-0 with a 6 point home win over #14
  • #11 Nebraska, 0-2 with an OT road loss to #5 and an 8 point road loss to #14
  • #12 Minnesota, 0-1 with a 14 point home loss to #2
  • #13 Northwestern, 0-1 with a 17 point home loss to #5
  • #14 Illinois, 1-1 with a 3 point home loss to #7 and an 8 point home win over #11

As a practical matter I think the Hawkeyes and Badgers are the only realistic contenders barring an unexpected collapse by both.  That is what makes this weekends' games so critical.  

Iowa's trip to Maryland is their third toughest game this year.  If they win this they'll have a big lead especially if Wisconsin loses to Michigan.  

For Wisconsin this is their second home game against a top-4 opponent.  They lost the last one in a close game and if they also lose this one they'll be in trouble.  They do host Iowa (10/30) and for now they control their own destiny but if they lose this weekend and Iowa wins then they'll need help because winning out would only get them to 7-2 and Iowa could still go 8-1.  

Four possibilities:
Iowa wins and Wisconsin loses:
In this case their rankings will not change much but Iowa will move to 2-0 while Wisconsin moves to 0-2.  Iowa becomes a STRONG favorite in the B1G-W.  

Both win:
The win would help Wisconsin's ranking a lot more than Iowa's.  The Badgers would likely move to #4 while Iowa stayed at #3 (barring an upset or unexpectedly close win by a team ahead of them).  Both still control their own destiny and Wisconsin hosts the H2H.  

Both lose:  
The loss would hurt Iowa's ranking a lot more than Wisconsin's.  The Hawkeyes would drop at least to #5 behind Michigan and Maryland but possibly # 6 also behind MSU.  Wisconsin would probably drop one spot passed by Maryland.  Both still control their own destiny (relative to each other anyway) and Wisconsin hosts the H2H but at this point the top five or six teams in the B1G-E would all be ranked ahead of the top team in the B1G-W.  

Wisconsin wins and Iowa loses:
This would have the biggest impact on the rankings as both results would be "upsets" at least in the sense that the lower ranked team won.  Wisconsin would likely move up to #3 while Iowa would drop to at least #5 (behind UW and UMD) and likely more than that.  Both still control their own destiny and Wisconsin hosts the H2H.  


Abba

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Re: B1G-W race, a lot could be decided this weekend
« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2021, 01:32:00 PM »
I think it's way too early to call Iowa & Wisconsin the only realistic contenders.  Remember in 2018, Northwestern had an awful start to the year losing to Duke and Akron, but then rallied the troops and went 8-1 to win the West.  

I think with the exception of Illinois, these teams are all in play here at this point.  I think Iowa & Wisconsin have enough flaws that a team like Purdue or Minnesota (or obviously Northwestern) could get things figured out and challenge.  Nebraska might even be one of the best teams here, but those 2 early losses are probably too much to overcome.

LittlePig

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Re: B1G-W race, a lot could be decided this weekend
« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2021, 01:55:24 PM »
Yes, I am not sure if the true identity of this year's teams have emerged yet.  Last year Iowa started 0-2 and then won its last 6 games including double-digit victories over PSU  and Wiscy.  Meanwhile Purdue started 2-0 and then absolutely fell apart, finishing 2-4.

With that said I doubt the division will be wrapped up this week because the team with the best chance right now, Iowa, still has games left with PSU, Purdue, Wisc and the rest of the West Division after that.

But I would say that Iowa has an opportunity to wrap up the division by the end of October if they can run the table against MD, PSU, Purdue, and Wiscy.  The odds are low they could do that,  but if they can its over by Nov 1.

One potential sleeper might be Purdue, which has not lost in the Big Ten yet.  If Jeff Brahm can get some of his young talent to step up on offense,  while his defense continues to play well, throw in a couple of lucky breaks, and they might just pull a division title out of nowhere.  Odds are low but its much more likely in the West than the East.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G-W race, a lot could be decided this weekend
« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2021, 02:13:14 PM »
Yes, I am not sure if the true identity of this year's teams have emerged yet.  Last year Iowa started 0-2 and then won its last 6 games including double-digit victories over PSU  and Wiscy.  Meanwhile Purdue started 2-0 and then absolutely fell apart, finishing 2-4.

With that said I doubt the division will be wrapped up this week because the team with the best chance right now, Iowa, still has games left with PSU, Purdue, Wisc and the rest of the West Division after that.

But I would say that Iowa has an opportunity to wrap up the division by the end of October if they can run the table against MD, PSU, Purdue, and Wiscy.  The odds are low they could do that,  but if they can its over by Nov 1.

One potential sleeper might be Purdue, which has not lost in the Big Ten yet.  If Jeff Brahm can get some of his young talent to step up on offense,  while his defense continues to play well, throw in a couple of lucky breaks, and they might just pull a division title out of nowhere.  Odds are low but its much more likely in the West than the East.
I quibble with the term "fell apart". Purdue's first 5 games were all decided by a TD or less. Purdue's worst loss of the year was 10 points to Nebraska. It's not like Purdue ever looked "world-beating" in those first two games and certainly wasn't just a "doormat" in those last four losses. They weren't good, of course, but it's not like they started on fire and then turned into a dumpster fire. It's looking at record w/o context.

Purdue could be a sleeper in what appears to be a VERY weak B1G-W today. But that's more a statement on the B1G-W than on Purdue. I think Purdue's got some talent, they appear to be a lot better on D, and they have offensive weapons. But they don't have a functional OL, and I'm not sure that's something that can just be corrected via practice or scheme--they're just not very good up front. 

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G-W race, a lot could be decided this weekend
« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2021, 02:25:17 PM »
If Iowa loses then the B1G West is wide open, and bad. 

If Iowa and Wisconsin both lose then the B1G West is really wide open and beyond bad.

When the B1G West is wide open and bad, you can pretty much pencil in Pat Fitzgerald's Wildcats atop the dung heap by seasons end. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

Cincydawg

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Re: B1G-W race, a lot could be decided this weekend
« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2021, 02:40:49 PM »
Heh, sounds about right, and somewhat akin to the ACC nowadays, with Wake and BC leading the standings for the moment.  I'd expect Clemson to right the ship and probably win out, but it's far from certain of course.  Somebody will win the other side (duh) and lose to them in the CG.

I still like OSU in the Big.

LittlePig

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Re: B1G-W race, a lot could be decided this weekend
« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2021, 04:09:57 PM »
I believe the only thing that's been proven so far is that the Big Ten West is off to an extremely bad start.  But the gap is probably not as big as everyone thinks.

Yes, Wiscy deserved to lose to PSU, and Neb deserved to lose to MSU,  but they had their chances and if Wiscy and Neb had won those games, everybody would be singing a different tune right now.  But thats a different reality,  I admit.

Never-the-less there are going to be some more close down-to-the-wire games coming and the West will win some of them.  If Neb ever learns to play special teams, watch out!
« Last Edit: October 01, 2021, 04:17:02 PM by LittlePig »

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G-W race, a lot could be decided this weekend
« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2021, 05:10:28 PM »
I think it's way too early to call Iowa & Wisconsin the only realistic contenders.  Remember in 2018, Northwestern had an awful start to the year losing to Duke and Akron, but then rallied the troops and went 8-1 to win the West. 

I think with the exception of Illinois, these teams are all in play here at this point.  I think Iowa & Wisconsin have enough flaws that a team like Purdue or Minnesota (or obviously Northwestern) could get things figured out and challenge.  Nebraska might even be one of the best teams here, but those 2 early losses are probably too much to overcome.
I was basically going off of my general agreement with our current power rankings where we have Iowa at #3, Wisconsin at #6, and the rest of the B1G-W as the worst five teams in the league.  We could be wrong but unless we are wildly wrong, it is between Iowa and Wisconsin.  

Purdue has to play both Iowa and Ohio State on the road.  If they lose those and win all the rest of their games (or trade an upset in one of those for a loss in one of the others) they'd finish 7-2 which might win the division but I just don't think they have that in them and 6-3 isn't going to win the division unless it really is a dumpster fire.  
Yes, I am not sure if the true identity of this year's teams have emerged yet.  Last year Iowa started 0-2 and then won its last 6 games including double-digit victories over PSU  and Wiscy.  Meanwhile Purdue started 2-0 and then absolutely fell apart, finishing 2-4.
With the exception of what @betarhoalphadelta pointed out, I agree.  WRT his point, I think that is something we miss a lot.  When a team goes 2-0 then 0-4 all we tend to see is the record but context is important.  Purdue's two wins were by four points at home over Iowa in a game where they got outgained and by a TD over an Illinois team that was so bad they fired their coach.  Yeah, it is 2-0 but it isn't like they were setting the world on fire.  Then they had three losses by a TD, a FG, and a TD and finally a 10-point loss to Nebraska.  Similarly, it is 0-4 but it isn't like they weren't competitive in the losses.  
With that said I doubt the division will be wrapped up this week because the team with the best chance right now, Iowa, still has games left with PSU, Purdue, Wisc and the rest of the West Division after that.

But I would say that Iowa has an opportunity to wrap up the division by the end of October if they can run the table against MD, PSU, Purdue, and Wiscy.  The odds are low they could do that,  but if they can its over by Nov 1.
I agree on this, if Iowa gets to 8-0/5-0 it is over and I don't think it will be wrapped up this week but I do think that these are two really key games because they are both games that I could see going either way and there is a HUGE difference between the possibilities.  
One potential sleeper might be Purdue, which has not lost in the Big Ten yet.  If Jeff Brahm can get some of his young talent to step up on offense,  while his defense continues to play well, throw in a couple of lucky breaks, and they might just pull a division title out of nowhere.  Odds are low but its much more likely in the West than the East.
Yeah, I don't think so.  I could see Purdue pulling a big upset here or there but I don't think they have it in them to play all that well week-in and week-out which probably leaves something like 6-3 as their ceiling and, as I said above, that isn't going to win the division unless it is awful.  
Purdue could be a sleeper in what appears to be a VERY weak B1G-W today. But that's more a statement on the B1G-W than on Purdue. I think Purdue's got some talent, they appear to be a lot better on D, and they have offensive weapons. But they don't have a functional OL, and I'm not sure that's something that can just be corrected via practice or scheme--they're just not very good up front.
I agree, the only way I see Purdue winning the division is if the division is REALLY bad.  If Iowa turns out to be a paper tiger and Mertz keeps throwing the ball to guys in non-Wisconsin jerseys then it really could be anybody's division to win but that would likely come down to a tiebreaker among a group of 6-3 teams.  
I believe the only thing that's been proven so far is that the Big Ten West is off to an extremely bad start.  But the gap is probably not as big as everyone thinks.
I think that remains to be determined.  Wisconsin was close in both of their losses so they aren't all that far from being a top-10 team but at the same time with their turnover issues they could lose to almost any opponent.  I could see them cleaning things up, going on a tear, and finishing 10-2 or falling apart and missing a bowl.  Who knows.  Iowa is a bit of a question as well.  The wins over Indiana and ISU looked great when those teams were #17 and #9 but now they are both 2-2, Indiana just barely beat WKU, and ISU lost to Baylor.  So how good is Iowa?  I don't think we know.  We'll learn more tonight and a lot more when PSU visits next Saturday.  



LittlePig

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Re: B1G-W race, a lot could be decided this weekend
« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2021, 06:41:32 PM »
The main thing I can say on Iowa's behalf it is possible that its defense is not just good, or great,  but something really special.  The kind of defense that can carry a team to a championship all by itself. 

Looking forward to watching the Iowa-MD game tonight to see if this theory holds up.  Its been a long time since anybody has scored over 24 points against Iowa,  a streak that goes back to 2018.    But every year is different.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G-W race, a lot could be decided this weekend
« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2021, 11:09:45 PM »
The main thing I can say on Iowa's behalf it is possible that its defense is not just good, or great,  but something really special.  The kind of defense that can carry a team to a championship all by itself. 

Looking forward to watching the Iowa-MD game tonight to see if this theory holds up.  Its been a long time since anybody has scored over 24 points against Iowa,  a streak that goes back to 2018.    But every year is different.
Well they are certainly looking good right now!

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G-W race, a lot could be decided this weekend
« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2021, 11:23:39 PM »
It is amazing now looking back that Maryland actually led 7-3 at the end of the first quarter.  To be fair, at the quarter break Iowa had the ball second-and-goal at the UMD one yard line but Maryland was still in the lead.  

Backing up a little bit further, when Maryland scored their first TD to take that 7-3 lead they had outgained Iowa 99-42 (to be fair that is three UMD possessions and only two Iowa possessions but still) . . .

After that Iowa just caught fire in every facet of the game.  Iowa possessions since then:

  • 8 plays, 59 yards, TD
  • 2 plays, 10 yards, TD
  • 6 plays, 26 yards, TD
  • 8 plays, 45 yards, TD
  • 9 plays, 46 yards, FG 
  • 4 plays, 65 yards, TD
  • 7 plays, 29 yards, FG
  • 11 plays, 82 yards, TD
  • 3 plays, 3 yards, Punt

Iowa scored on eight straight possessions and when they finally didn't score it was largely because it was 51-14 in the fourth quarter and the game was obviously no longer in doubt.  

Meanwhile, here is what Maryland did (file under everything that could go wrong did):
  • Fumbled a KO return
  • 1 play, 1 yard, Fumble
  • 2 plays, 11 yards, Int
  • 3 plays, -2 yards, Punt
  • 3 plays, 19 yards, INT
  • 3 plays, -5 yards, Punt
  • 8 plays, 75 yards, TD
  • 4 plays, 15 yards, Int
I'm not sure that I've ever seen a team turn the ball over on five of eight possessions.  Seriously, in eight possessions they had:
  • Three interceptions
  • Two fumbles
  • Two punts
  • One TD
That has to be some kind of record.  


LittlePig

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Re: B1G-W race, a lot could be decided this weekend
« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2021, 11:46:05 PM »
It is amazing now looking back that Maryland actually led 7-3 at the end of the first quarter.  To be fair, at the quarter break Iowa had the ball second-and-goal at the UMD one yard line but Maryland was still in the lead. 

Backing up a little bit further, when Maryland scored their first TD to take that 7-3 lead they had outgained Iowa 99-42 (to be fair that is three UMD possessions and only two Iowa possessions but still) . . .

After that Iowa just caught fire in every facet of the game.  Iowa possessions since then:

  • 8 plays, 59 yards, TD
  • 2 plays, 10 yards, TD
  • 6 plays, 26 yards, TD
  • 8 plays, 45 yards, TD
  • 9 plays, 46 yards, FG
  • 4 plays, 65 yards, TD
  • 7 plays, 29 yards, FG
  • 11 plays, 82 yards, TD
  • 3 plays, 3 yards, Punt

Iowa scored on eight straight possessions and when they finally didn't score it was largely because it was 51-14 in the fourth quarter and the game was obviously no longer in doubt. 

Meanwhile, here is what Maryland did (file under everything that could go wrong did):
  • Fumbled a KO return
  • 1 play, 1 yard, Fumble
  • 2 plays, 11 yards, Int
  • 3 plays, -2 yards, Punt
  • 3 plays, 19 yards, INT
  • 3 plays, -5 yards, Punt
  • 8 plays, 75 yards, TD
  • 4 plays, 15 yards, Int
I'm not sure that I've ever seen a team turn the ball over on five of eight possessions.  Seriously, in eight possessions they had:
  • Three interceptions
  • Two fumbles
  • Two punts
  • One TD
That has to be some kind of record. 


Throw in all the flags that MD had in the first half was another way MD was so mistake prone.  I think they had 3 false starts on 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1.

BUT you had to know Iowa was going to get some picks.  Iowa picked off Indy's QB and ISU's QB 3 times each.  Its what Iowa does.  Sits back in almost a prevent style defense and let's the other team make mistakes and let them self destruct. 

I should add that I do feel bad feel bad for the MD player who's leg got bent sideways on that KR return.  That was just awful.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G-W race, a lot could be decided this weekend
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2021, 12:01:08 AM »
Throw in all the flags that MD had in the first half was another way MD was so mistake prone. 
Maryland doesn't commit penalties. It's a B1G reffing conspiracy. 

Cincydawg

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Re: B1G-W race, a lot could be decided this weekend
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2021, 06:56:35 AM »
There isn't a real reason to track this, is there?  Other than being a kind of oddity and statistic?  What if one division had two really good teams and 5 terrible ones, and lost the numbers game but had two elite teams and the other division just had a bunch of pretty good teams?

 

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