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I watched until a little after the half. Iowa is a really good football team. Definitely head and shoulders above the rest of the West. I don't think any of the teams are even close.

Relying on TO margin is a risky proposition.

You could arguably state they relied on TO margin for the ISU win, but otherwise they're relying on defense. The TO margin is certainly affecting the final scores, but defense is winning the games.

You could arguably state they relied on TO margin for the ISU win, but otherwise they're relying on defense. The TO margin is certainly affecting the final scores, but defense is winning the games.

Yup,  if Iowa gets 6 turnovers a game, they win 51-14.  If they get 3 turnovers, 31-14.  if they get 1 turnover they win 24-14.  If they get no turnovers, 17-14.

What if the other team gets more turnovers?  Idk,  its been a long time since that happened. Stay tuned.

I figure a TO on average is worth about 3.5 points, so you're right that it's more of a factor in close games.  But a team winning close ones on TO margin might not hold up later in the year as well.  I need to watch an Iowa game, I'm not saying this is the case for them at all.

And the oft cited "law of averages" is completely faulty.

It's not an accident that Iowa usually wins the turnover battle.  Iowa's defense is set up to limit scoring, not to limit yards.  They play back, don't blitz and keep everything in front of them.  So it has a way of giving other teams a false  confidence.  They pick up 1 or 2 first downs but Iowa does not give up the big score.  Then sooner or later, Boom! the other team makes a mistake.  They fumble or throw a pick.    Rarely does Iowa fall behind by 2 scores, and eventually a conservative Iowa offense manages to sneak out a score or 2.  Then the other team gets more frustrated. 

It is also worth noting that Iowa does develop a lot defensive talent that ends up playing in the NFL.  Iowa has had 4 BigTen DB player of the year since 2012.  So it does have talent in defense.

With all that said,  we know sooner or later there is going to be a game where Iowa falls behind 14-0 and will be interesting how Iowa responds.