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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 9

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #28 on: November 01, 2022, 02:51:05 PM »
Probably the same reason that you had this in your rankings:


6. Minnesota 5-3, 2-3 in BT
7. Iowa
8. Purdue 5-3, 3-2 in BT, with H2H win @ Minnesota

Overall record of opponents:

Minnesota:  29-35
Purdue:  35-30
Agreed.  That middle group is just tough to rank.  Everyone here agrees that the top four are tOSU, M, PSU, and IL  (there is disagreement on the order but everybody has those as the top-4).  Also, all but one of us (@FearlessF ) have MSU, UNL, RU, IU, and NU as the bottom five and the one exception has MSU 9th and Iowa 10th. 

That leaves five teams to rank between #5 and #9.  Here are their B1G games thus far:
[img width=297.429 height=273]https://i.imgur.com/OUsGyqm.png[/img]
As you can see, so far there have only been three games among these five teams:
  • Purdue won at Maryland by 2
  • Purdue won at Minnesota by 10
  • Purdue lost at Wisconsin by 11

Thus, in games among the five:
  • 1-0 Wisconsin beat PU at home. 
  • 2-1 Purdue beat UMD and MN on the road and lost on the road to UW
  • 0-0 Iowa has yet to play any of the other four
  • 0-1 Maryland lost at home to PU
  • 0-1 Minnesota lost at home to PU
Wisconsin has the best percentage but you have to give Purdue some credit for the fact that all three games were on the road for them. 

In games against the top-4 these teams are 0-9.  I would rank their performances against the top-4 as follows:
  • 0-1 Maryland:  Their loss was both close and on the road. 
  • 0-1 Purdue:  Their loss was close but at home. 
  • 0-3 Iowa:  Two of their three losses were reasonably close and they are the only team in this group to have played both of the top-2. 
  • 0-2 Minnesota: A blowout and a two-score loss.
  • 0-2 Wisconsin:  Two blowouts.  Also, I'd be more willing to say "well yeah that happens against great teams" if it was tOSU and M rather than tOSU and IL. 

In games against the bottom-5 these teams are 9-1.  I would rank their performances against the bottom-5 as follows:
  • 2-0 Minnesota:  Two blowouts. 
  • 2-0 Iowa:  Two near-blowouts. 
  • 1-0 Purdue:  A too-close win over UNL. 
  • 3-0 Maryland:  Three wins is good but two close calls and a two-TD home win over MSU are not impressive. 
  • 1-1 Wisconsin:  These teams shouldn't be losing to the bottom-5.  The blowout of Northwestern is good but the loss is bad. 

Like I said upthread, all five of these teams have results that make it look like they are at least as good as #4 Illinois and results that make it look like they are no better than the best of the bottom-5.  It will work itself out.  There are five games among these five teams over the final four weeks of the season:
  • Maryland at Wisconsin on 11/5 noon, BTN
  • Iowa at Purdue on 11/5 noon, FS1
  • Wisconsin at Iowa on 11/12 TBD
  • Iowa at Minnesota on 11/19 TBD
  • Minnesota at Wisconsin on 11/26 TBD

« Last Edit: November 01, 2022, 05:21:28 PM by medinabuckeye1 »

grillrat

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #29 on: November 01, 2022, 03:22:41 PM »
I think the Goophs would beat Purdue today, just as think Wisconsin would beat Purdue today.

My rankings are always about today - not so much about the past.
I have no issue with ranking Wisconsin above Purdue.  I have issue with ranking Minnesota above Purdue.

What makes you believe that Minnesota is better now versus when they played a few weeks ago?  What would you call Minnesota's best win?  Rutgers?  MSU?  Minnesota does not have a win against a team with a winning record.  Meanwhile, Purdue has won on the road against both 6-2 Maryland and 5-3 Minnesota.

Purdue crapped the bed against Wisconsin (a pick 6 and another interception at the 14 yard line will do that to you).  Won't deny it.  But I think you are letting one crappy performance influence your opinion compared to what they've done the rest of the year.


medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #30 on: November 01, 2022, 03:25:23 PM »
Completely objective ranking based on relative scoring differential against B1G opponents:

  • 1.2 Ohio State:  The Buckeyes are best against UW, IA, MSU, and RU and second best against PSU.  
  • 1.6 Michigan:  The Wolverines are best against PSU, UMD, and IU, second best against Iowa, and third best against MSU.  
  • 2.4 Penn State:  The Nittany Lions are best against tOSU and MN, second best against PU, third-best against NU, and worst against M.  
  • 2.6 Illinois:  The Illini are best against UNL, second best against UW and MN, third best against Iowa, and worst against IU.  
  • 2.8 Iowa:  The Hawkeyes are second-best against M, IL, and NU, third-best against RU, and worst against tOSU.  
  • 2.8 Purdue:  The Boilermakers are second best against UMD and UNL, third-best against PSU and MN, and next-to-last against UW.  
  • 3.0 Wisconsin:  The Badgers are best against PU and NU, third best against tOSU, and worst against IL and MSU.  
  • 3.2 Maryland:  The Terps are best against M, third-best against PU, and next-to-worst against MSU, IU, and NU.  
  • 3.4 Minnesota:  The Gophers are second-best against MSU and RU, third-best against IL, and last against PSU and PU.  
  • 3.4 Indiana:  The Hoosiers are best against IL, third-best against M and UMD, and worst against UNL and RU.  
  • 3.6 Michigan State:  The Spartans are second-best against M, third-best against UW, next-to-last against M and MN, and worst against UMD.  
  • 3.8 Nebraska:  The Cornhuskers are second-best against IU, next-to-last against IL, PU, and RU, and worst against NU.  
  • 4.0 Rutgers:  The Scarlet Knights are third-best against IU, next-to-last against tOSU, IA, and UNL, and worst against MN.  
  • 4.2 Northwestern:  The Wildcats are third-best against UNL, next-to-last against PSU and UMD, and last against UW and IA.  

All B1G teams have played five league games so each teams' opponents are ranked 1-5 then the bottom row is the average of the rankings.  Using Ohio State's opponents as an example:
  • PSU lost by 13
  • MSU lost by 29
  • UW lost by 31
  • RU lost by 39
  • Iowa lost by 44
Similarly, against Northwestern:
  • UW won by 35
  • Iowa won by 20
  • PSU won by 10
  • UMD won by 7
  • UNL lost by 3



Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #31 on: November 01, 2022, 07:38:53 PM »

  • Michigan 
  • Ohio State 
  • Penn State 
  • Illinois 
  • Purdue 
  • Iowa 
  • Maryland 
  • Wisconsin 
  • Minnesota 
  • Nebraska 
  • Michigan State 
  • Indiana 
  • Rutgers 
  • Northwestern 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

ELA

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #32 on: November 01, 2022, 09:47:10 PM »
I have MSU #10, but I'm very confused about how some people have them behind Nebraska.  That is an indefensible position at this point.  Indiana, Nebraska and Rutgers are the CLEAR #11-#13 in some order.  Look at literally any metric.  Actually most have Indiana, not Nebraska, closer to MSU's #10 spot

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #33 on: November 02, 2022, 01:31:31 AM »
Sparty has a good win against Wisconsin I guess, and a pair of Mac wins, but then every other game was a double digit loss.

Nebraska has just as many wins, and three of their losses were one-score losses instead of double digit losses. So Nebraska has been much more competitive on a consistent basis.

Oddly enough they don't have any common opponents yet, but they will rapidly begin to rack them up starting this week.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2022, 01:42:08 AM by Brutus Buckeye »
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

Benthere2

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #34 on: November 02, 2022, 07:47:40 AM »
I have no issue with ranking Wisconsin above Purdue.  I have issue with ranking Minnesota above Purdue.

What makes you believe that Minnesota is better now versus when they played a few weeks ago?  What would you call Minnesota's best win?  Rutgers?  MSU?  Minnesota does not have a win against a team with a winning record.  Meanwhile, Purdue has won on the road against both 6-2 Maryland and 5-3 Minnesota.

Purdue crapped the bed against Wisconsin (a pick 6 and another interception at the 14 yard line will do that to you).  Won't deny it.  But I think you are letting one crappy performance influence your opinion compared to what they've done the rest of the year.


minnesota crapped the bed against Purdue... a INT by purdue in the end zone a missed FG dropped passes 

it was homecoming and they might have been partied out but the 1 bad game might have cost them against Illinios as well 

i laugh at how some teams get a pass for a bad game and others do not
but do agree Minnesota has not won a game against a team with a pulse yet

FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #35 on: November 02, 2022, 08:54:00 AM »
and they won't this saturday either
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #36 on: November 02, 2022, 09:29:35 AM »
minnesota crapped the bed against Purdue... a INT by purdue in the end zone a missed FG dropped passes

it was homecoming and they might have been partied out but the 1 bad game might have cost them against Illinios as well

i laugh at how some teams get a pass for a bad game and others do not
but do agree Minnesota has not won a game against a team with a pulse yet
The funny thing about Minnesota is that they've been REALLY good against the bad teams and REALLY bad against the good teams, no close games. 

grillrat

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #37 on: November 02, 2022, 10:41:37 AM »
minnesota crapped the bed against Purdue... a INT by purdue in the end zone a missed FG dropped passes

it was homecoming and they might have been partied out but the 1 bad game might have cost them against Illinios as well

i laugh at how some teams get a pass for a bad game and others do not
but do agree Minnesota has not won a game against a team with a pulse yet
How would the bad game against Purdue have cost them against Illinois?  You do remember that there was a bye week between those games?  So outside of their confidence taking a hit, I'm not sure you can really blame the Illinois loss on anything lingering from Purdue (especially because they got Mo back).

Second, the two teams have only one common opponent so far, Penn State.

Purdue lost to Penn State by 4.  Minnesota lost by 28.

Third, I looked up about four different strength of schedule listings, and Purdue has had the tougher schedule in all four.
I guess I'm just really struggling to find some metric to prove that Minnesota is better right now.

Benthere2

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #38 on: November 02, 2022, 01:37:39 PM »
How would the bad game against Purdue have cost them against Illinois?  You do remember that there was a bye week between those games?  So outside of their confidence taking a hit, I'm not sure you can really blame the Illinois loss on anything lingering from Purdue (especially because they got Mo back).

Second, the two teams have only one common opponent so far, Penn State.

Purdue lost to Penn State by 4.  Minnesota lost by 28.

Third, I looked up about four different strength of schedule listings, and Purdue has had the tougher schedule in all four.
I guess I'm just really struggling to find some metric to prove that Minnesota is better right now.
sure and MN played their worst game against Purdue and had 3 plays turn differently Purdue doesn't win that game and if played 10 times 5 at each home team the gophers I believe would win 7 of 10 

but everyone is entitled to their opinion  

ELA

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #39 on: November 02, 2022, 02:51:50 PM »
Composite computer rankings (88 rankings - last week in parenthesis)

  • OHIO STATE (2)
  • Georgia (1)
  • Tennessee (3)
  • Alabama (5)
  • MICHIGAN (6)
  • Clemson (4)
  • TCU (7)
  • Oregon (8)
  • Kansas State (20)
  • USC (10)
  • Ole Miss (12)
  • LSU (13)
  • Utah (16)
  • UCLA (18)
  • PENN STATE (11)
  • ILLINOIS (19)
  • Oklahoma State (9)
  • Texas (17)
  • Mississippi State (21)
  • Syracuse (15)
  • Tulane (24)
  • Wake Forest (14)
  • North Carolina (-)
  • Notre Dame (-)
  • Oregon State (25)

  • 28. Maryland (28)
  • 37. Purdue (34)
  • 40. Minnesota (46)
  • 48. Wisconsin (49)
  • 53. Iowa (55)
  • 65. Michigan State (65)
  • 82. Indiana (80)
  • 90. Nebraska (88)
  • 92. Rutgers (82)
  • 115. Northwestern (114)


medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #40 on: November 03, 2022, 10:50:07 AM »
Results posted.  

I think we may be overrating Illinois and underrating Iowa just a bit.  Looking at games against the top-4, 12 of our teams have played either one or two top-4 opponents.  The exceptions are:

  • Illinois has played none
  • Iowa has played three

Illinois:
They have a great win (by 24 on the road) over Wisconsin but other than that their resume is pretty thin.  As mentioned above, they have yet to play any top-4 team, they only BARELY beat Iowa at home they beat Minnesota by two scores but that was at home as well.  They beat Nebraska soundly in Lincoln and lost in Bloomington.  

I'm not saying that Illinois sucks, just that I think they are closer to the 5-9 group (UW, UMD, PU, MN, IA) than they are to #3 Penn State.  

Iowa:
They are sub .500 in the league (2-3) and .500 overall (4-4) and their in-state OOC loss to the Cyclones looks worse every week but their three league losses are:
  • By 44 on the road to #1 tOSU
  • By 13 at home to #2 M
  • By 3 on the road to #4 Illinois
Even getting blown out by tOSU is excusable especially considering that it was in Columbus.  Their losses to Michigan and Illinois are nothing to sneer at and when they weren't losing to the best teams in the league they blew out Rutgers in Piscataway and Northwestern at home.  

It is an embarrassment to the league since they lost to the Cyclones who are winless and alone in last place in the B12, but Iowa just might be our fifth best team.  When you consider that the three point loss to Illinois was on the road, Iowa might be our fourth best team.  

 

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