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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 9

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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2021, 02:09:10 PM »
head to head doesn't always determine the "better" team
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2021, 03:28:28 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 31, 2021, 02:02:09 PM
Rutgers would beat Nebraska by four points, and it would be dubbed a "good loss."
This is what makes it hard to figure out Nebraska. 

If you just look at W's and L's they have a LOT of L's and the teams they have beaten aren't very good.

Oddly, however, every one of their losses was competitive, they were all within one score.

The loss to Illinois says #14. The close games with OU, MSU, and M say EASILY top 10.

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LittlePig

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2021, 05:59:54 PM »
I think its Illinois thats screwing up all the attempts to rank teams based on head to head results.

ILL is probably worse than PSU and Neb, but somehow beat both teams.  ILL is probably better than Rutgers and maybe even MD,  but somehow lost to both teams. 
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2021, 06:04:23 PM »
Illinois has plenty of help

upsets happen and then some teams are just vastly overrated

college football is crazy that way
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TyphonInc

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2021, 08:04:44 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 31, 2021, 12:12:39 PM
LoL
Well... MSU hasn't lost, and has the best win. #1

TTUN lost on the road to a higher ranked team than OSU lost to at home. #2

OSU's vaunted offense was reduced to a field goal kickin' machine.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2021, 09:31:32 PM »
Quote from: TyphonInc on October 31, 2021, 08:04:44 PM
Well... MSU hasn't lost, and has the best win. #1

TTUN lost on the road to a higher ranked team than OSU lost to at home. #2

OSU's vaunted offense was reduced to a field goal kickin' machine.
MSU went to Bloomington, trailed at halftime, never led by more than eight, and escaped with a five point win, 20-15.

The next week tOSU went to Bloomington, scored 44 points in the first half, rested starters in the second half and won by 47 points, 54-7.

Ohio State went to Piscataway, scored 24 before Rutgers got on the board, led 45-6 at halftime, and won by 39, 52-13.

The next week MSU went to Piscataway, was tied at the first/second quarter break, was within one score at halftime and won by 18, 31-13.

Now I'm not saying that the above is completely definitive. It is POSSIBLE that Indiana and Rutgers both happened to have the worst game of their seasons against tOSU while also having the best game of their seasons a week earlier/later against MSU.

Occam's razor suggests otherwise.
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Hawkinole

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2021, 12:56:27 AM »
1.  OSU
2.  MSU
3.  Mich
4.  Wisc
5.  PSU
6.  Minn
7.  Pur
8.  Iowa
9.  Maryland
10. Illinois
11. Nebraska
12. Rutgers
13. Northwestern
14. Indiana - When you are in the Big Ten you are no slouch. The difference between 2021 and '20 are marginal. Healthy QBs would help.



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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2021, 08:23:30 AM »
NOT my ranking, just for discussion/consideration:

Comparative performance ranking:

  • 1.5 tOSU (best of five against each of PSU, MN, UMD, IU, and RU)
  • 2.6 UW 
  • 2.6 MN
  • 2.9 PU
  • 3.0 UNL
  • 3.2 M
  • 3.2 PSU
  • 3.5 IA
  • 3.6 MSU
  • 4.1 RU
  • 4.2 IL
  • 4.6 IU
  • 5.0 UMD
  • 5.0 NU


Method:
  • All B1G teams have played five league games except UNL and IL who have played six each.
  • UNL's and IL's opponents are ranked 1-->6 based on scoring differential against.  
  • All other B1G teams' opponents are ranked 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5 based on scoring differential against.  
  • The average ranking is the number reported above (1.5 for tOSU, 2.6 for UW, etc).  

Samples:
Ohio State:
  • 1.5 Best of five against PSU
  • 1.5 Best of five against MN
  • 1.5 Best of five against UMD
  • 1.5 Best of five against IU
  • 1.5 Best of five against RU
  • 1.5 Average
Nebraska:
  • 2.5 Second of five against M
  • 1.5 Best of five against MSU
  • 3 Tied for 2nd/3rd of five against MN
  • 3.5 Third of five against PU
  • 6 Worst of six against IL
  • 1.5 Best of five against NU
  • 3.0 Average


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LittlePig

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2021, 09:19:11 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 01, 2021, 08:23:30 AM
NOT my ranking, just for discussion/consideration:

Comparative performance ranking:

  • 1.5 tOSU (best of five against each of PSU, MN, UMD, IU, and RU)
  • 2.6 UW
  • 2.6 MN
  • 2.9 PU
  • 3.0 UNL
  • 3.2 M
  • 3.2 PSU
  • 3.5 IA
  • 3.6 MSU
  • 4.1 RU
  • 4.2 IL
  • 4.6 IU
  • 5.0 UMD
  • 5.0 NU


Method:
  • All B1G teams have played five league games except UNL and IL who have played six each.
  • UNL's and IL's opponents are ranked 1-->6 based on scoring differential against. 
  • All other B1G teams' opponents are ranked 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5 based on scoring differential against. 
  • The average ranking is the number reported above (1.5 for tOSU, 2.6 for UW, etc). 

Samples:
Ohio State:
  • 1.5 Best of five against PSU
  • 1.5 Best of five against MN
  • 1.5 Best of five against UMD
  • 1.5 Best of five against IU
  • 1.5 Best of five against RU
  • 1.5 Average
Nebraska:
  • 2.5 Second of five against M
  • 1.5 Best of five against MSU
  • 3 Tied for 2nd/3rd of five against MN
  • 3.5 Third of five against PU
  • 6 Worst of six against IL
  • 1.5 Best of five against NU
  • 3.0 Average



Always a very interesting way to look at things and a possible way to sort out teams that may be over-rated or under-rated.

It looks to me like you can group teams into 3 different clumps.  #1 OSU is in a class by itself.  #2 to #9 are clumped close enough together you can say they have not separated themselves yet from that group.  And #10 to #14 seem to have enough separation you can consider them to be in another tier. 

On the other hand,  the fact that MSU keeps winning close games and Neb keeps losing close games needs to be taken into account some how too.  Actually winning the game does matter.
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2021, 09:21:33 AM »
What's better?  To always lose close games like Neb, or occasionally play great like ILL?  Which team would you rather play?  Neb might be a better team but ILL does a better job finding ways to win when they have the chance.  I think I would rather have my team play Neb instead of ILL if you want a win.
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NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2021, 09:23:25 AM »
  • Ohio State - Penn St still has a good defense and the Buckeyes put up 26 pts on their defense. Somewhat concerned that the running game took a while to get going, but I attribute that to everyone putting up their best fight against tOSU.
  • Michigan State - Good home win vs a good UM team. They will be tough down the stretch could give tOSU a run for their money. 
  • Michigan - Played a good game for 3 1-/2 quarters. Cade McNamara looked better than he has in the past and gave this team an actual passing game. 
  • Wisconsin - Finally coming to life and Mertz didn't do anything to stop them this week. 
  • Minnesota - Looking good against the lower half of the B1G. Can they keep it going against their tougher opponents? We'll see.
  • Penn State - Did not look like the team that lost to Illinois the prior week. A healthy Clifford is the key to this teams. That and a very good defense. 
  • Iowa - What happened to the Hawks? Still playing good (not great) defense, but their offense is nowhere to be found. 
  • Purdue - This team is looking better every week. Their offense is starting to click and their defense is pretty good.
  • Maryland - They can beat the lower ranked conf teams. Still a long way from being a contender.
  • Rutgers - May be the best of the rest.
  • Illinois - Who knows where to rank them? They are a Jekyll and Hyde team. 
  • Nebraska - While they may be competitive with the good teams, they still cannot find a way to win. At some point, they need to fall to their rightful place in the ranking. For me, that is this week. 
  • Indiana - Not have either of their top 2 QB's is really hurting them, but the backup did play well this week. Just not a good team right now.
  • Northwestern - As much as I have respect for Fitz and hate to see them here, they really are not good. 

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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #25 on: November 01, 2021, 09:28:05 AM »
Looks about right to me, the bottom half is not very good it seems.  Maybe Purdue is crawling out of that basement?

It's still Ohio State at the top by a fair margin to me, Michigan State is going to get stopped at some point, maybe unexpectedly.

A UGA-OSU matchup would be interesting.
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Temp430

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #26 on: November 01, 2021, 09:32:46 AM »
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan State
3. Michigan
4. Penn State
5. Wisconsin
6. Iowa
7. Minnesota
8. Purdue
9. Nebraska
10. Maryland
11. Rutgers
12. Illinois
13. Indiana
14. Northwestern
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #27 on: November 01, 2021, 09:33:46 AM »
Quote from: LittlePig on November 01, 2021, 09:21:33 AM
What's better?  To always lose close games like Neb, or occasionally play great like ILL?  Which team would you rather play?  Neb might be a better team but ILL does a better job finding ways to win when they have the chance.  I think I would rather have my team play Neb instead of ILL if you want a win.
as long as Martinez is playing, the opponent has a great chance to get the win
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