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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 9

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #70 on: November 03, 2021, 10:57:06 PM »
Results posted, votes through @Abba , 15 voters.  

Things that at least half of us agree on:

  • 12/15 that M is #3
  • 11/15 that tOSU is #1
  • 11/15 that MSU is #2
  • 10/15 that PU is #8
  • 8/15 that UW is #4
  • 8/15 that UMD is #10
  • 8/15 that RU is #11
  • 8/15 that NU is #14

Each week I post what I call the "COTY" chart.  It is simply current ranking less preseason ranking and I call it the "COTY" chart because COTY is generally awarded to the team that most exceeded expectations.  I don't keep track of past scores but I'm pretty sure that our top and bottom are both records at this point.  

At the top is MSU/Tucker:
This is unbelievable.  MSU's preseason average ranking was 12.38.  They were ranked second worst in the league and worst in the B1G-E.  Their current average ranking is 1.73 which exceeds their preseason average by an astounding 10.65.  That is just unheard of.  

At the bottom is IU/Allen:
Indiana's preseason average ranking was 4.15.  They were ranked fourth in the league overall and third in the B1G-E behind only tOSU and PSU.  They are now second-worst in the league and last in the B1G-E at 13.13, which is 8.98 below their preseason ranking. 

I don't think Allen should be fired or anything, I think this is more a product of being not quite as good as their record last year and probably not quite as bad as their record this year.  

The other thing I want to comment on is the schedule/performance table:
Ohio State has the biggest win against each of their five B1G opponents.  That may not seem like a big deal but I've been tracking this for a number of years and trust me, it is highly unusual to be THAT good this late in the season.  

Teams that are have the biggest win (or smallest loss in the case of an undefeated opponent) against at least one B1G opponent:
  • 5, tOSU has the biggest wins against PSU, MN, UMD, RU, and IU
  • 3, UW has the biggest wins against IA, PU, and IL
  • 2, UNL has the biggest win against NU and the closest loss to MSU
  • 1, PSU has the closest loss to tOSU
  • 1, MSU has the biggest win against M
  • 1, M has the biggest win against UW
  • 1, IL has the biggest win against UNL


medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #71 on: November 03, 2021, 11:09:38 PM »
I still think we’re living in the past where margin of victory was a really important aspect in college football but I think it’s a lot more like the NFL where a win it’s just a win.
This argument isn't merely wrong it is flat absurd.  

The quality differential in the NFL top-to-bottom is MUCH smaller than the quality gap just in the B1G.  The largest MOV in an NFL game so far this year is 41 points.  That is out of approximately 112 NFL games played so far this year.  By contrast, Ohio State has bigger MOV's in two of their five B1G games (49 over UMD and 47 over IU) and a third that is close and would be the third biggest NFL MOV (39 over RU).  

A win is just a win in the NFL because even the worst teams in the NFL aren't THAT much worse than the best.  In CFB that isn't even true within the B1G and becomes even more ludicrous when trying to compare games against teams MUCH worse than any that the B1G has to offer.  

Back when MCWterps was here he used to treat "a win as a win" in his power rankings and that always caused his to be ridiculously off.  I once asked him, hypothetically, if tOSU going to Tuscaloosa and losing in OT would be worse than UMD hosting an FCS scrub and winning in OT and he ducked the question.  

Who you play and how you perform matters if you want to get a meaningful comparison of the relative strength of teams in CFB.  Cincy's resume will be only somewhat impressive even if they get to 13-0 because they play in a crap league.  

Even within the B1G, IU is 0-5 in part because they have played three of the five best teams (tOSU, MSU, and PSU) while MSU is 5-0 in part because they have played four of the five worst teams in the league (NU, IU, RU, UNL).  

Honestbuckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #72 on: November 04, 2021, 07:57:25 AM »
This argument isn't merely wrong it is flat absurd. 

The quality differential in the NFL top-to-bottom is MUCH smaller than the quality gap just in the B1G.  The largest MOV in an NFL game so far this year is 41 points.  That is out of approximately 112 NFL games played so far this year.  By contrast, Ohio State has bigger MOV's in two of their five B1G games (49 over UMD and 47 over IU) and a third that is close and would be the third biggest NFL MOV (39 over RU). 

A win is just a win in the NFL because even the worst teams in the NFL aren't THAT much worse than the best.  In CFB that isn't even true within the B1G and becomes even more ludicrous when trying to compare games against teams MUCH worse than any that the B1G has to offer. 

Back when MCWterps was here he used to treat "a win as a win" in his power rankings and that always caused his to be ridiculously off.  I once asked him, hypothetically, if tOSU going to Tuscaloosa and losing in OT would be worse than UMD hosting an FCS scrub and winning in OT and he ducked the question. 

Who you play and how you perform matters if you want to get a meaningful comparison of the relative strength of teams in CFB.  Cincy's resume will be only somewhat impressive even if they get to 13-0 because they play in a crap league. 

Even within the B1G, IU is 0-5 in part because they have played three of the five best teams (tOSU, MSU, and PSU) while MSU is 5-0 in part because they have played four of the five worst teams in the league (NU, IU, RU, UNL). 
You are talking analytics ( which I LOVE yours by the way). I’m sure not disagreeing with the analytics.

i’ll say it a different way:  If Ohio State beat Nebraska three to nothing, and beat Michigan State 3 to 2, and beats Purdue 2 to nothing, and beat Michigan 6 to 3-as a fan of Ohio State I will be incredibly joyful.

You may have noticed- while I have made comments in the section, I have actually not voted in the rankings.



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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 9
« Reply #73 on: November 04, 2021, 10:06:04 AM »
You may have noticed- while I have made comments in the section, I have actually not voted in the rankings.




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