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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 5

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #14 on: November 23, 2020, 11:28:45 AM »
Not my rankings, just for information:

Relative performance against opponents:
Notes:

  • I use raw score except that any game decided in OT is considered closer than any game decided in regulation (ie, winning by one point in regulation is a "bigger" win than winning by eight in OT).  
  • The opponents of the eight teams that have played five opponents (IU, M, RU, PSU, NU, IA, MN, IL) are rated 1-2-3-4-5 with ties treated as half of each (ie, if two teams are tied for the best performance they each get 1.5).  
  • The opponents of the four teams that have played four opponents (tOSU, MSU, PU, UNL) are rated 1.5-2.5-3.5-4.5 on the theory that IF that opponent had played five, this is the average of the two possible outcomes.  
  • The opponents of the two teams that have played three opponents (UW, UMD) are rated 2-3-4 on the theory that IF that opponent had played five, this is the average of the three possible outcomes.  
Average of 1.60:
  • Iowa:  First of five (1) against NU,MN, and PSU.  First of four (1.5) against MSU.  Third of four (3.5) against PU.  
Average of 1.63:
  • Ohio State:  First of five (1) against IU and RU.  First of four (1.5) against UNL.  Third of five (3) against PSU.  
Average of 2:
  • Wisconsin:  First of five (1) against M and IL.  Fourth of five (4) against NU.  
Average of 2.20:
  • Northwestern:  First of four (1.5) against PU.  First of three (2) against UW and UMD.  Second of five against IA.  Third of five (3.5) against UNL.  
Average of 2.50:
  • Purdue:  First of five (1) against IA.  Second of five (2) against NU.  Third of five (3) against IL.  Fourth of five (4) against MN.  
Average of 2.60:
  • Indiana:  First of four (1.5) against tOSU.  Second of five (2) against M and RU.  Second of four (2.5) against MSU.  Last of five (5) against PSU.  
Average of 3.10:
  • Minnesota:  Second of five (2) against IL.  Second of four (2.5) against PU.  Second of three (3) against UMD.  Third of five (3) against IA.  Last of five (5) against M.  
Average of 3.33:
  • Maryland:  Second of five (2) against PSU.  Third of five (3) against MN.  Last of five (5) against NU.  
Average of 3.40:
  • Penn State:  Second of five (2) against IU.  Second of four (2.5) against tOSU.  Fourth of five (4) against IA.  Last of three (4) against UMD.  Last of four (4.5) against UNL.  
Average of 3.60:
  • Michigan:  Second of five (2) against MN.  Tied for 2nd/3rd of three (3.5) against UW.  Fourth of five (4) against IU and RU.  Last of four (4.5) against MSU.  
  • Rutgers:  Third of five (3) against IU.  Third of four (3.5) against MSU and tOSU.  Fourth of five (4) against M and IL.  
Average of 3.70:
  • Illinois:  Second of four (2.5) against UNL.  Third of five (3) against RU.  Tied for 2nd/3rd of three (3.5) against UW.  Last of four (4.5) against PU.  
Average of 4.13:
  • Nebraska:  Third of five (3) against NU.  Fourth of five (4) against PSU.  Last of four (4.5) against tOSU.  Last of five (5) against IL.  
Average of 4.50:
  • Michigan State:  Third of five (3) against M.  Last of five (5) against IU, IA, RU.  

So if you ranked by this it would be:
  • 1.60 Iowa
  • 1.63 Ohio State
  • 2.00 Wisconsin
  • 2.20 Northwestern
  • 2.50 Purdue
  • 2.60 Indiana
  • 3.10 Minnesota
  • 3.33 Maryland
  • 3.40 Penn State
  • 3.60 (tie) Michigan
  • 3.60 (tie) Rutgers
  • 3.70 Illinois
  • 4.13 Nebraska
  • 4.50 Michigan State


It is astounding to me that #9 PSU, #10 M, #13 UNL, and #14 MSU can all be this bad simultaneously.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #15 on: November 23, 2020, 11:32:08 AM »

Average of 3.40:

  • Penn State:  Second of five (2) against IU.  Second of four (2.5) against tOSU.  Fourth of five (4) against IA.  Last of three (4) against UMD.  Last of four (4.5) against UNL.  
I still say something happened with this team between the tOSU loss and the UMD loss.  

The first two performances are not bad at all.  They are losses, but to good teams.  Their loss to IU was bettered only by tOSU's win over IU and their loss to tOSU was bettered only by IU's loss to tOSU.  

The three performances since then are dreadful.  Their loss to IA was better only than MSU's loss to IA and they have the worst performances of the year against UMD and UNL.  

What happened?  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #16 on: November 23, 2020, 11:48:11 AM »
  • Ohio State:  This spot changed hands twice over the weekend and ended up right back where it started.  Right about 3pm the Buckeyes were up 4 TD's on IU and I was confident that I would have them in this spot.  Over the next roughly 25 minutes of game-time in Columbus I was thoroughly unimpressed with the Buckeyes as they got outscored 28-7 by the Hoosiers and I was confident that I would have Wisconsin in this spot.  Then Wisconsin accepted the kickoff in Ryan Field and four hours later I was back to having Ohio State in this spot. 
  • Northwestern:  This is a tough call for me between the Wildcats, Badgers, and Hawkeyes but the Cats are 2-0 against those other two so they get #2.  They have a case for #1.  Their five opponents are better than Ohio State's four and their 10 point win over Wisconsin is impressive.  I kept them below the Buckeyes due to their one-possession wins over PU, IA, and UNL. 
  • Wisconsin:  It is close between the Badgers and Hawkeyes but I think the Hawkeyes are going to have to beat the Badgers to take #3 from them. 
  • Iowa:  Their two losses came by five combined points in the first two weeks of the season.  Since then they have three blowout wins. 
  • Indiana:  I would have put Purdue here but losing to MN is not a good way to move up in my rankings and the Hoosiers never gave up and put up a hell of a fight in Columbus.  When they got down 35-7 it would have been easy to fall apart, they didn't. 
  • Purdue:  Although with that loss to MN they are on notice . . .
  • Maryland:  Mostly because of the H2H blowout of
  • Penn State:  As noted above, this team is Jeckyll and Hyde.  Their first-two weeks performance would have them at #3 or 4.  Their last three weeks would have them at #12 or 13. 
  • Minnesota:  The early blowout loss to M is still holding them back.  If they show some fight against UW this weekend I'll move them up. 
  • Michigan:  I think that the MSU loss is just an outlier.  Their other two losses at least were to good teams.  
  • Illinois:  I don't know what to do with this team.  Great win over UNL and they also beat Rutgers but they got blown out by UW (not a big deal) and Minnesota (a big deal). 
  • Rutgers:  Close losses to the two teams directly ahead of them in these rankings hurt a lot. 
  • Nebraska:  I can't believe I have them this low. 
  • Michigan State:  I can't believe how bad they are. 

« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 01:22:42 PM by medinabuckeye1 »

FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #17 on: November 23, 2020, 12:01:22 PM »
Nebraska:  I can't believe I have them this low.

I can't believe they suck this badly 
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #18 on: November 23, 2020, 12:17:51 PM »


I remember this.... 


  • 7 Maryland:  Mostly because of the H2H blowout of
  • 8 Penn State:    





But not this... 


  
  • 10 Michigan:  Here because they beat
  • 11 Illinois:    







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HawkFrenzy

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #19 on: November 23, 2020, 01:17:24 PM »
What a tough year to rate the BIG. There is a lot of team A beat B who beat C who beat D who beat A. I think it is very evident how much OOC games matter.

1. OSU - Still the clear #1 but the margin seems to be narrowing. They need to stop taking a nap in the 2nd half if their goal is the CFP because those teams are not as likely to give them a three or four touchdown lead by halftime. 

2. NU - Continues to prove themselves, especially as Ramsey gets more comfortable in the offense. The defense is legit.

3. IU - going from overrated to wow, almost! Penix has a case for POY and Allen has a case for COY. 

4. Wisconsin - Almost by default because of a lack of confidence in the rest of the league. Will they be eligible for post season?

5. Iowa - Like above, mostly by default. Dominated last three weeks over teams with a combined 3-9 record with biggest...most impressive...no adjective works...wins over a struggling Michigan and controversial win over Purdue. I  bet they wish they could have the 1st two games back.

6. Maryland - Remaining team with a winning record.

7. Purdue - Getting a little credit for a potentially bad call on the road. 

8. Minnesota - Caught a break but were in the position that it was needed to win.

9. Michigan - Needed 3OT's to beat possibly the most improved team in the league. Let's see what the QB change will do.

10. ILL - Potentially could beat most of the bottom half but also can get blown out. Not sure which team will show.

11. Rutgers - The W/L record will not show but Schiano is working miracles. 

12. UNL - Is Frost on the hot seat or is he getting the 2020 pass?

13. MSU - Only because they do have one win.

14. PSU - 0-5. Overall they may be somewhere slightly above but I can't put them ahead of someone with at least one BIG win. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #20 on: November 23, 2020, 01:21:40 PM »

I remember this....


But not this...





Oops, my bad.  I originally had them right ahead of Rutgers (whom they did beat) but ended up rearranging things and never went back to fix that until now.  

JerseyTerrapin

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #21 on: November 23, 2020, 01:29:33 PM »
 
n/a Maryland - still hiding under their shell.
I'm not going to try to change your mind about dirtbaggery in the athletic department at Maryland.  But FYI, the university's assessmentas of late last week, per the Washington Post is "Nearly a quarter of the Terps’ roster is in that 21-day process."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/11/20/maryland-football-outbreak-schedule/




FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #22 on: November 23, 2020, 01:45:59 PM »
I don't really think any team has ducked an opponent in the Big Ten using COVID as the excuse

It's obviously possible, but I hope that wouldn't be the case
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SFBadger96

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #23 on: November 23, 2020, 03:37:12 PM »
1) OSU: but not as convincing down the stretch as I thought the Buckeyes would be.
2) Northwestern: tough defense.
3) Indiana: didn't quit against OSU.
4) Wisconsin: Ryan Field remains an unusual house of horrors.
5) Iowa: looks like Iowa.
6) Purdue: on the strength of better performances against the better teams?
7) Maryland: not punishing it for not playing.
8) Michigan State: also not punished for not playing
9) Minnesota: wins are good, and against a team I have ranked higher.
10) Illinois: wins are good.
11) Michigan: not a good sign to need triple OT against Rutgers.
12) Nebraska: losses to Illinois are bad.
13) Rutgers: Rutgers.
14) Penn State: can Penn State really be this bad? Will have to start winning to prove it isn't.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 04:23:23 PM by SFBadger96 »

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #24 on: November 23, 2020, 03:57:43 PM »
I'm not going to try to change your mind about dirtbaggery in the athletic department at Maryland.  But FYI, the university's assessmentas of late last week, per the Washington Post is "Nearly a quarter of the Terps’ roster is in that 21-day process."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/11/20/maryland-football-outbreak-schedule/




I'm not definitively accusing anyone of ducking. It is all just good natured message board ribbing. It could happen to anyone. I'm just glad that there is a season.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #25 on: November 23, 2020, 04:24:48 PM »
8) Michigan State: also not punished for not playing
13. MSU - Only because they do have one win.
12. Michigan State - I don't think they could beat any team above them on a neutral field now. 
10) Michigan State
11. Michigan State- a break in the season
13. Michigan St.
9. Michigan State
12. Michigan State
11. Michigan State
I want to preface this by saying that I'm not an MSU hater.  I wish they weren't as  bad as they are.  That said, they aren't just bad, they are horrible.  My question is WTF are you guys seeing in them to rank them ahead of ANY other team let alone multiple teams?  

Their games, chronologically:
  • They lost by 11 at home to Rutgers:  In Rutgers' other four games they lost in OT, lost by a FG, lost by 16, and lost by 22.  This is, by far, the worst performance of the year against RU, worse than tOSU, IU, M, and IL.  
  • They won by a FG in Ann Arbor:  
  • They lost by 42 in Iowa City:  In Iowa's other four games they won by 28 and 20 and lost by 1 and 4.  This is, by far, the worst performance of the year against Iowa, worse than PU, NU, PSU, and MN.  
  • They got shutout 24-0 at home by Indiana:  In Indiana's other four games they lost by a TD, won in OT, won by 16, and won by 17.  This is the worst performance of the year against IU, worse than tOSU, PSU, RU, and M.  

The Michigan game is clearly an outlier but even there, that performance against Michigan is only better than MN and RU.  It is still worse than UW and IU.  

What are you guys seeing that makes you think they are better than any other B1G team?  

FearlessF

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #26 on: November 23, 2020, 04:28:04 PM »
I just watched the Husker's performance vs Illinois


and Penn State is O-for
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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 5
« Reply #27 on: November 23, 2020, 05:01:45 PM »
Could you imagine the SEC like this?  It would be like having LSU, Tennessee, and Auburn all being bad.

 

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