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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, week 4

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NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 4
« Reply #14 on: November 16, 2020, 09:14:33 AM »
1. Ohio State - Still here until someone beats them
2. Wisconsin - Very impressive outing. They looked very good and sharp. But I'm not sure how much was them playing well vs UM just giving up. Hard to say.
3. Indiana - We'll see how good they are this weekend. 
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4. Northwestern - Playing close games and coming out on top. Reminds me of 2002 Ohio State.
5. Iowa - I think they finally started to play football. Looking good right now.
6. Purdue - As someone else mentioned, they need to be able to run the ball. Still playing well however.
7. Maryland - Bottom of the middle group. Hope they can play this weekend.
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8. Nebraska - Of the bottom group of teams, not sure anyone below them would beat them now.
9. Michigan State - At least they beat Michigan
10. Penn State - Still believe this team is better than their record. They just need to put it all together on the field.
11. Michigan - It is looking more like the team has quit. 
12. Minnesota - I'm not sure they could beat anyone above them at this point. I think some of their oars are not in the water. 

13. Illinois - Won the toilet bowl. 
14. Rutgers - Barely lost the toilet bowl. 

LetsGoPeay

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 4
« Reply #15 on: November 16, 2020, 12:47:57 PM »

  • Ohio State
  • Wisconsin
  • Indiana
  • Northwestern
  • Purdue
  • Iowa
  • Maryland
  • Nebraska
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Penn State
  • Illinois
  • Rutgers
  • Michigan State


SFBadger96

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 4
« Reply #16 on: November 16, 2020, 01:00:25 PM »
1) Ohio State.
2) Wisconsin: I love a good beat down of Michigan in Ann Arbor, even if they suck.
3) Indiana: big week for the Hoosiers.
4) Northwestern: big week for the Wildcats (and the Badgers).
5) Purdue: not a bad enough loss to move the Boilermakers below an Iowa team they beat.
6) Iowa: good treatment of a backsliding Gopher squad. PSU shouldn't be much trouble, either.
7) Maryland: no change on the bye.
...(your guess is as good as mine)...
8) Michigan State: best win of the one-win teams?
9) Minnesota: on the basis of its convincing win over Illinois.
10) Nebraska: wins are nice.
11) Michigan: better than Illinois? Maybe.
12) Illinois: wins are nice.
13) Rutgers: doesn't seem fair based on its win over MSU, but all these teams are bad, and I have an anti-Rutgers bias.
14) Penn State: 0-4 is 0-4.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 4
« Reply #17 on: November 16, 2020, 01:17:38 PM »
Not my rankings, just information:

How each team has done against their opponents relative to their opponents' other opponents:
Notes:

  • For the teams that have played four opponents this is just a 1-2-3-4 ranking by raw score of which did best, second best, etc.  
  • For the teams that have played three opponents the ranking is 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 on the theory that IF that opponent HAD played four opponents, THEN the first team would be either first or second (so I took the average of 1.5) and the second team would be either second or third, etc.  
  • For the team that has only played two opponents the ranking is 2-3 on the theory that the best would be either first, second, or third (so I took the average of 2) and the worst would be either second, third, or fourth.  
  • There is one tie, I broke it in favor of the team that accomplished that on the road rather than at home (Illinois and Michigan both lost to Wisconsin by 38 but the Illini did it in Madison).  

Average of 1:
  • Wisconsin:  They are the best against both Illinois and Michigan.  
Average of 1.375:
  • Iowa:  They were the best against NU, MN, and MSU and second of three against Purdue.  
Average of 1.5:
  • Ohio State:  They were the best of four against Rutgers, best of three against Nebraska, and second best (behind Maryland) against PSU.  
Average of 1.875:
  • Northwestern:  They were the best of three against PU and UMD, second best against Iowa, and second best of three against UNL.  
Average of 2:
  • Purdue:  They were the best against Iowa, second best against Northwestern, and third best against Illinois.  
Average of 2.375:
  • Penn State:  Their season seems to have gone off the rails after the tOSU loss.  They were the best of four against IU and best of three against tOSU but worst of three against both UMD and UNL.  
Average of 2.5:
  • Indiana:  They were second best against M, RU, and MSU and worst against PSU.  
Average of 2.667:
  • Maryland:  They were the best against PSU, third against MN, and worst against NU.  
Average of 2.875

  • Rutgers:  They were second against IU, second of three against tOSU, third against MSU, and worst against IL.  
  • Minnesota:  They were second against IL, second of three against UMD, third against Iowa, and worst against M.  
Average of 3:
  • Michigan:  They were second against MN, second of two against UW, third against IU, and worst against MSU.  
Average of 3.167:
  • Nebraska:  They were third of three against tOSU and third against NU and PSU.  
Average of 3.125:
  • Illinois:  They were first of two against UW, third against RU, third of three against PU, and worst against MN.  
Average of 3.75:
  • Michigan State:  They were third against M and worst against IU, IA, and RU.  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 4
« Reply #18 on: November 16, 2020, 01:32:51 PM »

  • Ohio State:  I can see why @847badgerfan ranked the Badgers #1.  Wisconsin has looked near-perfect both times out.  I'm open to moving them up if they keep that up, but I'm not doing it based on only two games.  I just haven't seen enough yet.  
  • Wisconsin:  As stated above, they have looked near-perfect both times out.  
  • Northwestern:  We'll find out next week, assuming UW/NU is played.  
  • Iowa:  The Hawkeyes are only 2-2 but the two losses were by a combined five points and the two wins were both complete blowouts.  
  • Indiana:  To be honest, I'm not convinced but we'll find out this week assuming IU/tOSU is played.  
  • Purdue:  The NU loss isn't bad and their win over Iowa keeps looking better and better but only barely beating an Illinois team that got smoked by UW and freaking Minnesota is a bit troubling.  
  • Maryland:  I honestly have no idea if this is the good looking team that smacked PSU around or the bad looking team that needed OT to beat Minnesota and got smoked by NU.  Unfortunately their game against MSU this week will not tell us much unless they lose.  
  • Penn State:  I'm probably going to be higher with PSU than anybody else.  I don't know what to do with them.  Their first-two-weeks team that lost a crazy upset in OT to Indiana and looked reasonably competitive with Ohio State would be #3 in my rankings.  Their last-two-weeks team that got smoked by UMD and lost to UNL would be #13.  
  • Michigan:  Where is this team's head?  
  • Nebraska:  Nice bounce-back win.  
  • Minnesota:  Welp, they have a win over Illinois!
  • Illinois:  Welp, they have a win over Rutgers!  
  • Rutgers:  Welp, they have a win over MSU!
  • Michigan State:  Their win over Michigan is stunning even if Michigan is as bad as some think because this team is flat awful.  


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 4
« Reply #19 on: November 16, 2020, 02:32:01 PM »
    Purdue:  The NU loss isn't bad and their win over Iowa keeps looking better and better but only barely beating an Illinois team that got smoked by UW and freaking Minnesota is a bit troubling.  
Bear in mind, Purdue was leading Illinois 31-10 at the end of the 3rd quarter. They got lackadaisical on defense, and let Illinois get two late scores to make it much closer than it was looking. 

Granted, I'm not saying Purdue played great. Gave up way too many yards, had 11 penalties for 103 yards (including drive-extending penalties on both of Illinois' last two scoring drives). But they never trailed in the game, and simply missed their opportunities to put the Illini away definitively by shutting them down or salting away the clock in the 4th quarter. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 4
« Reply #20 on: November 16, 2020, 07:26:25 PM »
Bear in mind, Purdue was leading Illinois 31-10 at the end of the 3rd quarter. They got lackadaisical on defense, and let Illinois get two late scores to make it much closer than it was looking.

Granted, I'm not saying Purdue played great. Gave up way too many yards, had 11 penalties for 103 yards (including drive-extending penalties on both of Illinois' last two scoring drives). But they never trailed in the game, and simply missed their opportunities to put the Illini away definitively by shutting them down or salting away the clock in the 4th quarter.
All of this is true and I get what you are saying.  The thing is that it would mean a lot more to me if we were discussing whether to rank Purdue #10 or #11 but we aren't.  I have them at #6.  The other voters so far have them at:
  • #4
  • #5 x6
  • #6 x4
  • #7 x2

This is an illustration of the down-side of being highly ranked.  If Purdue was down around #10/#11 beating Illinois by a TD after leading by 21 and giving up two late TD's to make it look close would be a major feather in their cap.  The problem is that they aren't down around #10/#11 so they aren't being compared to those teams.  Instead they are #4/5/6/7 and being compared to much better teams.  In THIS comparison beating Illinois by "only" a TD is a problem.  Also, while they did have a 21 point lead at the end of the third quarter, the game was reasonably competitive almost from start to finish.  It is true that Purdue never trailed and led by 21 at the end of the third quarter but that was their biggest lead of the game and they only held if for about five minutes.  The other 55 minutes were all within two scores.  That isn't good compared to Wisconsin and it isn't even good compared to Minnesota.  

At the end of the day it isn't impacting my ranking of Purdue very much.  When I look at Purdue's season, here is what I see:
  • Nice win against an Iowa team that I think is highly underrated.  That looks great.  
  • Somewhat shaky win against an Illinois team that I think is just flat awful.  
  • Competitive loss to a Northwestern team that seems to be pretty good.  

I have a number of problems in ranking them.  First, I don't think I know much about Northwestern.  Second, I'm always a big proponent of the concept that teams have good and bad games and since Purdue only has three games that is a problem.  Maybe their NU game was a really bad game (that probably would not be replicated) and they should be #2 or #3.  Maybe their Iowa game was a really good game (that probably would not be replicated) and they should be #9 or #10.  I need more data.  If all the games are played this weekend it will help a lot:
  • PU themselves is scheduled to play at Minnesota.  I expect them to win easily.  If they do, great.  If not, downgrade (even if they win).  
  • Their first opponent, Iowa, is scheduled to play PSU.  That will give us a comparison of how they did relative to PSU.  
  • Their second opponent, Illinois, is scheduled to play Nebraska.  That will give us a comparison of how they did relative to UNL.  
  • Their third opponent, Northwestern, is scheduled to play Wisconsin.  That will give us a comparison of how they did relative to Wisconsin.  


TyphonInc

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 4
« Reply #21 on: November 16, 2020, 07:57:46 PM »
Am I lucky, skilled or lazy? I'm not moving my top 6 from last week. Last weeks ranking in ()

1. Ohio State (0) - until someone beats them.
2. Wisconsin (0) - until someone or covid beats them.
3. Indiana (0) - Who circled this game as OSU premier match up for the covid season?

4. Northwestern (0) - 

5. Purdue (0)
6. Maryland (0)
7. Nebraska (+1)
8. Iowa (+2)

Needed a preseason to inflate their abysmal W-L record.  
9. Penn State (-2)

10. Michigan (-1)
11. Michigan State (0) - Lombardi as league MVP ... For The Other Team!
12. Minnesota (0)


14. Illinois (+1) 

13. Rutgers (-1) 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 4
« Reply #22 on: November 18, 2020, 11:57:46 AM »
14. Illinois (+1)
13. Rutgers (-1)
What did you mean here?  You have them listed as Illinois before Rutgers but numbered as Rutgers before Illinois.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 4
« Reply #23 on: November 18, 2020, 12:00:03 PM »
Some real variety with the last place teams.
IMHO, everybody who has MSU not #14 is relying WAY to heavily on one rivalry game win.  Even that win was only the third best performance against Michigan so far this year (behind UW and IU and ahead of only MN).  In their other three games the Spartans have the worst performances of the year against IU, IA, and RU.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 4
« Reply #24 on: November 18, 2020, 12:52:33 PM »
Results posted, votes through @TyphonInc , 15 voters.  

Two things jumped out at me:

  • At this point it appears that our top-3 have played absolutely nobody.  #1 Ohio State's top-ranked opponent so far is #8 UNL while #10 Michigan is the top-ranked opponent so far for both #2 UW and #3 IU.  
  • Ohio State's schedule looks insanely easy.  By current ranking their best opponent is this week's game against #3 IU.  After that it would be #7 UMD but that got cancelled so Ohio State's second toughest game is #8 UNL.  On top of that, based on current rankings the Buckeyes get their best three opponents (#3 IU, #7 UNL, and #10 M) at home so their road games are against #11, #12, and #13.  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 4
« Reply #25 on: November 18, 2020, 12:56:55 PM »
Another thing:

Northwestern is currently #4 which is last among undefeated teams.  However, their ranking has a lot more basis this year than tOSU's, UW's, and IU's combined.  I noted above that the top three haven't played any teams ranked above #8.  By contrast, NU's four wins were over #5, #6, #7, and #8.  Even if they get run off the field this weekend I think they'll still stay at least #4 because those four wins prop them up.  Who would you move ahead of them?  My answer is Iowa but I don't think I'll get a lot of agreement even if the Wildcats look horrible against UW while the Hawkeyes destroy PSU.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Power Rankings, week 4
« Reply #26 on: November 19, 2020, 11:30:17 AM »
With the cancellation of UMD/MSU and assuming no further cancellations, after this weekend our 14 teams will have played the following number of games:

  • Five Games:  Eight teams:  Indiana, Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State, Illinois, Rutgers
  • Four Games:  Four teams:  Ohio State, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State
  • Three Games:  Two teams:  Wisconsin, Maryland

If that holds, when I do the ranking by relative performance against opponents it will be as follows:
  • The five opponents of each of the eight teams that will have played five each will simply be ranked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 based on raw score differential with the exception that any game decided in OT is considered closer than any game decided in regulation so winning by 8 in OT is considered closer than winning by 1 in regulation.  Any ties will be averaged (ie, if two teams are tied for #1 they will both get credited with 1.5)*.  
  • The four opponents of each of the four teams that will have played four games each will be ranked 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 on the theory that those are the averages of where those schools could rank IF their opponent had played five games.  
  • The three opponents of each of the two teams that will have played three games will be ranked 2, 3, 4 on the theory that those are the averages of where those schools could rank IF their opponent had played five games.  

A note on ties:  As of last week the only tie was that Michigan and Illinois both lost to Wisconsin by 38 points.  Last week I broke that tie in favor of Illinois based on HFA.  I assumed that it was tougher to lose to UW by 38 in Madison than at home.  I've changed my mind on that.  In this odd COVID season I'm not sure how much HFA is worth so I'll just settle ties by averaging.  

The plan:
Right now IL and M are tied for 1st/2nd as against Wisconsin.  Assuming that the Wildcats do better against the Badgers than the Wolverines and Illini did, they will be tied for 2nd/3rd of three.  Per the above, second should be credited with a 3 and third with a 4 so both M and IL will get a 3.5.  


Averages through week 4 (with update for the M/IL tie):
Average of 1:
  • Wisconsin is the best of four against both M and IL.  
Average of 1.38:
  • Iowa is the best of four against NU, MN, and MSU and second of three against PU.  
Average of 1.5:
  • Ohio State is best of four against RU, best of three against NU, and second of four against PSU.  
Average of 1.88:
  • Northwestern is best of three against PU and UMD, second of three against UNL, and second of four against IA.  
Average of 2:
  • Purdue is best of four against IA, second of four against NU, and third of four against IL.  
Average of 2.38:
  • Penn State is best of four against IU, best of three against tOSU, and worst of three against UMD and UNL.  
Average of 2.5:
  • Indiana is second of four against M, MSU, and RU and worst of four against PSU.  
Average of 2.67:
  • Maryland is best of four against PSU, third of four against MN, and worst of four against NU.  
Average of 2.88:
  • Minnesota is second of four against IL, second of three against UMD, third of four against IA, and worst of four against M.  
  • Michigan is tied for 1st/2nd of two against UW, second of four against MN, third of four against IU, and worst of four against MSU.  
  • Rutgers is second of four against IU, second of three against tOSU, third of four against MSU, and worst of four against IL.  
Average of 3.17:
  • Nebraska is third of four against NU and PSU and third of three against tOSU.  
Average of 3.25:
  • Illinois is tied for 1st/2nd of two against UW, third of four against RU, third of three against PU, and worst of four against MN.  
Average of 3.75:
  • Michigan State is third of four against M and worst of four against IU, IA, and RU.  


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