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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, Week 14
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medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #28 on:** December 04, 2019, 09:33:17 AM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 02, 2019, 02:12:23 AM

5.(tie) Minnesota & Iowa (.324) - sorry if this messes up the average

It does. The way I do the compilation and vote distribution I can't accept ties. Consequently, I broke it the way I always do, by taking the first team you listed (Minnesota) and putting them first (#5) and the second team you listed (Iowa) and putting them second (#6).

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #29 on:** December 04, 2019, 10:01:51 AM »

Quote from: iahawk15 on December 03, 2019, 07:03:22 PM

I don't understand the outrage.

They're both 3-9
Northwestern holds 1 win against a .500 team
Maryland holds 1 win against a "ranked" team that turned out 5-7
Maryland played a slightly more difficult schedule
Most computer models I looked at have them both between 90 and 105. Massey composite has NU (94), Maryland (102)

They're basically T-12 in my mind

Additionally, I'm not sure how much thought gets put into rankings after 5-6.

Please don't take it as "outrage". I don't think anybody gets outraged over the placement of the bottom few teams in the league.

I questioned it because I just don't see it. I disagree with your analysis and do not see this as being close at all. Both went 1-8 in conference, I'll compare wins first:

Maryland's win was a blowout of Rutgers but Rutgers is BY FAR the worst team in the league. Their closest B1G game all year was a 21 point loss to a PSU team that just didn't care coming off of losing their hopes and dreams the prior week. Blowing out Rutgers proves next-to-nothing to me.
Northwestern's win was a blowout of a decent Illinois team that has four B1G wins to their name and will go bowling this year. Northwestern's is a MUCH better win.

They had six common opponents:

Both got blown out by Ohio State, Maryland's loss was worse.
Both lost to Minnesota but NU's was a 16 point loss that was reasonably competitive while UMD lost 52-10 in a game that was never in doubt.
Both lost to Indiana but Maryland's loss was competitive while Northwestern got run off the field.
Both lost to MSU but Maryland's loss was competitive while Northwestern got run off the field.
Both lost to Purdue but the Boilermakers ran the Terrapins off the field and needed a last second FG to beat NU by 2.
Both lost to Nebraska but the Cornhuskers ran the Terrapins off the field in a 54-7 slaughter while they needed a last second FG to beat NU by 3.

I see this as a 4-2 (or arguably 3-2 if you treat the tOSU blowouts as equivalent) advantage for the Cats.

I've covered their wins and their common opponents, here are each team's other two B1G games:

Maryland got destroyed by PSU and M
Northwestern lost 20-0 to Iowa and had a reasonably competitive game with Wisconsin.

I see this as somewhat better by NU.

OOC:
Maryland's OOC is probably a little better but this was also way back in August/September.

I just don't see how this adds up to Maryland > Northwestern.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #30 on:** December 04, 2019, 10:27:27 AM »

Quote from: SFBadger96 on December 02, 2019, 12:50:15 PM

Wisconsin: Blowout loss at Ohio State after getting to 10-7 in the 3rd quarter...then things snowballed.

Penn State's Interesting that at 21-0, Ohio State was cruising to another blowout, then two quick turnovers, and bam, PSU gets credit for a close game against the Buckeyes.

First, I thought your take on 2-6 in general was interesting. I think that PSU has a decent argument for #2 because their losses are better but just as an "eye test" thing, I "feel" that UW is better. After those two, I could make a credible case for any arrangement of M/IA/MN at 4-6.

Your point about the UW/PSU vs tOSU comparison is interesting. I watched both games of course. I was in the 'Shoe for the Wisconsin game and watched the PSU game on TV. For most of the games, the UW game "felt" closer. However, if you just look at final score the PSU game is much closer so you are right, PSU gets credit for a close game against the Buckeyes.

Comparative Timeline (time is total time remaining in the game):

53-37 minutes: PSU down 7-0, UW tied 0-0
37-32 minutes: PSU down 7-0, UW down 3-0
32-31 minutes: PSU down 14-0, UW down 3-0
31-27 minutes: PSU down 14-0, UW down 10-0
27-26 minutes: PSU down 14-0, UW down 10-7
26-25 minutes: PSU down 21-0, UW down 10-7
25-23 minutes: PSU down 21-0, UW down 17-7
23-23.5 minutes: PSU down 21-7, UW down 17-7
23.5-21 minutes: PSU down 21-14, UW down 17-7
21-19 minutes: PSU down 21-14, UW down 24-7
19-13 minutes: PSU down 21-17, UW down 24-7
13-7 minutes: PSU down 28-17, UW down 31-7
7 minutes to end-of-game: PSU down 28-17, UW down 31-7

I bolded the closer score. Until deep in the third quarter the UW game "felt" closer. Also, as an Ohio State fan I would honestly feel more confident playing PSU again than playing UW again. I feel like the Buckeyes didn't play all that well against PSU. Those back-to-back fumbles were uncharacteristic for Ohio State and without those the PSU game is easily a blowout.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #31 on:** December 04, 2019, 10:49:22 AM »

Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 - As I see it, the Buckeyes are #1 even if the lose the CG badly.
Wisconsin - 3,3,3,3,3,3,2,2,2,2,2,2,4,3 - The Badgers are something of an enigma. They have the best two wins of this 2-6 group (blowouts of M at home and MN on the road) but they also have, BY FAR, the worst loss (IL). They also looked better than PSU against tOSU for most of that game but then imploded and ended up losing much worse (31 compared to 11 points). The Wisconsin team that blew out Michigan and Minnesota and hung with tOSU for most of three quarters is EASILY #2. The Wisconsin team that lost to IL, struggled with NU, and got anihalated by tOSU for the last 25 minutes of that game is barely #6.
Penn State - 2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,4 - I'm not docking them for the "close" game with RU. I think that is a reasonable hangover after losing your hopes and dreams a week prior.
Michigan - 5,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,5,5,4,4,2,2 - It feels weird to move Michigan UP coming off of a 29 point blowout loss at home but losing badly at home to Ohio State is "better" than losing badly at home to Wisconsin.
Minnesota - 4,5,5,6,6,6,6,9,10,10,10,8,13,10 - this 4-6 group is tough to sort out.
Iowa - 6,6,6,5,5,5,5,5,4,4,5,6,5,6 - The win over Minnesota is nice but they still have a home loss to PSU. Extremely close to 4-6.
Michigan State - 9,9,8,7,7,7,7,6,6,6,7,7,7,9 - I moved the Spartans up because I now believe that they might actually be able to beat Indiana again if the two played again but it is close, really close.
Indiana - 8,8,9,8,8,10,10,11,11,11,11,13,12,12 - It is close between IU and ILL.
Illinois - 7,7,7,9,9,13,13,13,13,13,13,12,11,13 - With that ugly loss to NU they are now closer to PU than IU.
Purdue - 10,10,10,10,11,9,9,12,12,12,12,11,10,5 - competitive with IU, good on them.
Nebraska - 11,11,11,11,10,11,11,8,9,8,6,9,6,8 - Competitive with Iowa but basically everybody (better or worse) was competitive with Iowa. Seriously, the Hawkeyes beat NU by 20 and RU by 30. Their other seven B1G games were decided by 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 9 points.
Northwestern - 12,12,12,12,12,8,8,7,7,9,9,10,9,7 - A lot better than the last two.
Maryland - 13,13,13,13,13,12,12,10,8,7,8,5,8,11 - What happened to this season? Haven't I asked that about this team in previous seasons as well?
Rutgers - 14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14 - Compared to other B1G teams, the Scarlet Knights have the worst game against six of their nine B1G opponents.

Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #32 on:** December 04, 2019, 12:47:19 PM »

1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. Minnesota
6. Iowa
7. Indiana
8. Illinois (Don't know what that insanity was against NW...)
9. Purdue
10. Nebraska
11. Michigan State
12. Northwestern
13. Maryland
14. Rutgers

SFBadger96 · « **Reply #33 on:** December 04, 2019, 01:29:20 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 04, 2019, 10:27:27 AM

Your point about the UW/PSU vs tOSU comparison is interesting. I watched both games of course. I was in the 'Shoe for the Wisconsin game and watched the PSU game on TV. For most of the games, the UW game "felt" closer. However, if you just look at final score the PSU game is much closer so you are right, PSU gets credit for a close game against the Buckeyes.
...
Until deep in the third quarter the UW game "felt" closer. Also, as an Ohio State fan I would honestly feel more confident playing PSU again than playing UW again. I feel like the Buckeyes didn't play all that well against PSU. Those back-to-back fumbles were uncharacteristic for Ohio State and without those the PSU game is easily a blowout.

Yeah, but at some level comparing losses (which is what I was doing) is a little silly. Yes, PSU gets some credit for the final score (but they also made the plays, whether OSU played uncharacteristically or not), and yes, for much of the game, Wisconsin felt like it was more in the game (but not for the part of the game that really mattered, e.g., the end). But your point about which Wisconsin team we're talking about--the one that got blown off the field in the 4th quarter against OSU, lost to Illinois (and struggled a little with Northwestern), or the one that mopped the field with Michigan and Minnesota (in the second half)--is a good one. PSU (and Iowa!) was more consistent over the course of the season, but without the higher highs and the very low low in Champaign.

We'll get to see Wisconsin try again this week, on a neutral field. I fully anticipate Ohio State wins going away (two scores is my bet, but closer to 16 than 9, and nursing the clock throughout the 4th quarter). As a Badger fan, I'm frustrated that Wisconsin will surely lose ground to PSU because of its third loss, which is silly because (1) it's the probable outcome of the #8 team playing the #1 team; and (2) because PSU would likely lose as well (the probable outcome for the #10 team playing the #1 team), and Wisconsin will likely lose the Rose Bowl over that. That's a bummer, particularly because, despite the Illinois loss, I think Wisconsin is the second best team in the conference (and because I'm a Wisconsin fan). But such is life--and the nature of Wisconsin making two very costly turnovers at the end of the Illinois game.

Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #34 on:** December 04, 2019, 07:17:56 PM »

Quote from: SFBadger96 on December 04, 2019, 01:29:20 PM

Yeah, but at some level comparing losses (which is what I was doing) is a little silly. Yes, PSU gets some credit for the final score (but they also made the plays, whether OSU played uncharacteristically or not), and yes, for much of the game, Wisconsin felt like it was more in the game (but not for the part of the game that really mattered, e.g., the end). But your point about which Wisconsin team we're talking about--the one that got blown off the field in the 4th quarter against OSU, lost to Illinois (and struggled a little with Northwestern), or the one that mopped the field with Michigan and Minnesota (in the second half)--is a good one. PSU (and Iowa!) was more consistent over the course of the season, but without the higher highs and the very low low in Champaign.

We'll get to see Wisconsin try again this week, on a neutral field. I fully anticipate Ohio State wins going away (two scores is my bet, but closer to 16 than 9, and nursing the clock throughout the 4th quarter). As a Badger fan, I'm frustrated that Wisconsin will surely lose ground to PSU because of its third loss, which is silly because (1) it's the probable outcome of the #8 team playing the #1 team; and (2) because PSU would likely lose as well (the probable outcome for the #10 team playing the #1 team), and Wisconsin will likely lose the Rose Bowl over that. That's a bummer, particularly because, despite the Illinois loss, I think Wisconsin is the second best team in the conference (and because I'm a Wisconsin fan). But such is life--and the nature of Wisconsin making two very costly turnovers at the end of the Illinois game.

If we talk about the PSU-OSU game for a moment -

Penn State's starting QB was injured before the game and it limited his mobility. They couldn't move the ball and started down 21-0. Eventually Clifford reaggravated the injury and was replaced by the backup. Penn State's backup came in and was able to run PSU's offense (highly reliant on the QB rushing attack), but was completely destroyed by the crowd noise in the 4th quarter. The center was literally GUESSING when to snap the ball. If you saw the game, you know how bad the center and QB were out of sync.

I'm not saying that Penn State would win, but with a healthy QB and a neutral field the offense would have looked a bit better.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #35 on:** December 04, 2019, 08:27:10 PM »

Was PSU's QB hurt at Minnesota?

Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #36 on:** December 04, 2019, 11:47:10 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 04, 2019, 08:27:10 PM

Was PSU's QB hurt at Minnesota?

Yes.

NorthernOhioBuckeye · « **Reply #37 on:** December 05, 2019, 08:30:56 AM »

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on December 04, 2019, 07:17:56 PM

If we talk about the PSU-OSU game for a moment -

Penn State's starting QB was injured before the game and it limited his mobility. They couldn't move the ball and started down 21-0. Eventually Clifford reaggravated the injury and was replaced by the backup. Penn State's backup came in and was able to run PSU's offense (highly reliant on the QB rushing attack), but was completely destroyed by the crowd noise in the 4th quarter. The center was literally GUESSING when to snap the ball. If you saw the game, you know how bad the center and QB were out of sync.

I'm not saying that Penn State would win, but with a healthy QB and a neutral field the offense would have looked a bit better.

Perhaps Clifford being injured prior to the game with tOSU did hurt them early as they were pretty much unable to effectively move the ball while he was in there. It wasn't until the backup came into the game that PSU began consistently moving the chains.

It would be interesting to have PSU play tOSU with a healthy QB at a neutral field, but we don't. Also, PSU did get a bit of a break with FOX having the game played at Noon instead of a prime time game like they seem to do with the Bucks visit Happy Valley every other year. However it seems that the tOSU crowd made up for it by not drinking too much prior to the game and being awake for the entire game enough to generate some good crowd noise.

While I don't think you were insinuating that tOSU had an unfair advantage with the home crowd noise, it is not the first time that I've seen this concern. I just want to remind PSU fans that had Ohio State had a say in the matter, this would have been a prime time game to counter the White Outs that tOSU faces every other year when playing them on the road.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #38 on:** December 05, 2019, 08:50:57 AM »

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on December 04, 2019, 11:47:10 PM

Yes.

Is he still hurt?

LittlePig · « **Reply #39 on:** December 05, 2019, 09:03:07 AM »

I would like all players to be healthy if possible, and I know you are not arguing that PSU would have won if everybody was healthy, but the odds of getting your players hurt also has to be taken into account too.

Having a running QB like PSU has its risks and its rewards. One of the risks is that your QB takes more hits and is more likely to be banged up by the end of season.

I have seen PSU beat many teams because its QB runs for a key 1st down or TD when they need it. But it cuts both way. I was actually surprised that McSorley did not get hurt more often in his long career at PSU.

Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #40 on:** December 05, 2019, 10:49:01 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 05, 2019, 08:50:57 AM

Is he still hurt?

They kept him out of the Rutgers game for some kind of procedure. He is expected to be back soon.

HawkFrenzy · « **Reply #41 on:** December 05, 2019, 10:51:40 AM »

Ohio State - Clearly.
Wisconsin - Ask tOSU, seems like every great BIG team has a bad game or bad loss. Not sure tho that they would crush M again if played today.
Penn State - Did they have the IDGAF game against RU? Probably, still think this may be the only other team who could be competitive with tOSU if played again.
Michigan - Playing to their expected level but got curb stomped by #1...but most do anyway
Iowa - Sad when the kicker has more FGs than PATs but this D will keep them in every game. Imagine what they would have done with a playmaker under center. Don't get me wrong, I like Stanley but he is a game manager, not changer. Thanks for the memories AJE.
Minnesota - wheels came off against IA but still a solid season. Enjoy your bowl game next (calendar) year.
Indiana - Quietly had a great season by their standards.
Illinois - played about as well as almost anyone the last half of the season, except for that "DOH" against NU.
Michigan State - at least they figured out how to play the two HS teams in the conference
Purdue - Too bad injuries are part of the game, my guess they could have very easily could have won the "get thumped by tOSU lottery" if they stayed healthy.
Nebraska - Only because they are not the 12th best team in the conference.
Northwestern - Thumping of IL solidified their spot here.
Maryland - Jackson said they wanted to make Syracuse quit and thought they did a good job of it. So I have to ask, is that what they did the rest of the way? Good thing they got that quality win over...
Rutgers - As easy as picking #1. Maybe Schiano will help them NOT be shut out in 4 BIG games next year.

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Topic: B1G Power Rankings, Week 14

medinabuckeye1

Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 14

medinabuckeye1

Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 14

medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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SFBadger96

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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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847badgerfan

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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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NorthernOhioBuckeye

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847badgerfan

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LittlePig

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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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HawkFrenzy

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