CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 29, 2019, 08:44:23 AM
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Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-13/).
Sorry I am later than normal with the results this week. We had 19 voters, votes through HawkFrenzy:
(https://i.imgur.com/lBOjnHp.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/YFuMevT.png)
Graph of rankings so far this year:
(https://i.imgur.com/oJSMQGo.jpg)
Preseason ranking to current ranking comparison aka COTY prediction graph:
(https://i.imgur.com/wHOisFf.jpg)
Vote distribution:
(https://i.imgur.com/vuaF26a.jpg)
SoS/Performance table:
(https://i.imgur.com/DhwFcJh.png)
What I find really unusual this year is the relative lack of upsets. I'm defining "upset" here as a game in which a higher ranked team (current rankings, not as of game time) lost to a lower ranked team. There were only six this year:
- #2 Wisconsin lost on the road to #8 Illinois by one point.
- #3 Penn State lost on the road to #5 Minnesota by 5 points.
- #5 Minnesota lost on the road to #6 Iowa by 4 points.
- #7 Indiana lost on the road to #9 Michigan State by 9 points.
- #8 Illinois lost at home to #11 Nebraska by 4 points.
- #8 Illinois lost at home to #12 Northwestern by 19 points.
In addition to there being relatively few upsets, all but the two Illinois losses were cases where the superior team was on the road and all but the Wisconsin loss to Illinois involved a team losing to a team ranked only a few spots below them. Also, all but the Illinois loss to Northwestern were effectively one-score losses. I am referring to MSU's 9 point win over IU as "effectively" a one score loss because MSU's last six points came on an Indiana fumble returned for a TD on the game's last play. Until the fumble-return TD it was a three point game.
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1. OSU
2. Wisc
I already had Wiscy #2 before this week, but the blowout win at Minny removed any doubt I had. (3-0 vs #2 to #6)
3. PSU
(2-1 vs #2 to #6. Best win over Mich)
4. Minn
Not a strong finish to their season. (1-2 vs #2 to #6. Best win over PSU)
5. Mich
Some Mich fans were drinking the kool-aid before the OSU game, but boy they got snapped back to reality real fast by the Buckeyes. (1-2 vs #2 to #6. Best win over Iowa)
6. Iowa
(1-3 vs #2 to #6. Best win over Minny)
7. Indy
8. ILL
9. Pur
10. Neb
11. MSU
12. NW
13. MD
14. Rut
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin - Big wins over 4 and 5 put them here
3. Penn State - Just barely...3-5 are very tight
4. Michigan
5. Minnesota
6. Iowa - Home loss to PSU puts them a step back
7. Indiana - Big drop from 6, congrats on a nice year
8. Michigan State - Much better than their record
9. Purdue - Also much better than their record
10. Illinois - Had to get a lot of breaks to be 6-6
11. Nebraska - Deja Vu with some hopes for next year
12. Northwestern - Finally showed some life
13. At least they are good at basketball
14. At least they fenced the garden once
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no changes from last week.
1) Ohio State
2) Wisconsin
3) Penn State
4) Michigan
5) Iowa
6) Minnesota
7) Indiana
8) Michigan State
9) Illinois
10) Purdue
11) Nebraska
12) Maryland
13) Northwestern
14) Rutgers
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1. Ohio State: The best offensive performance in the modern history of the Game? Certainly not the best defensive performance. The best part of having three Heisman candidates is if one guy isn't having his best game (Chase Young) and one is inconsistent (Fields) you still have another one (Dobbins) who runs for 211 yards and 49 yards receiving. Tough to stop.
2. Wisconsin: Jumping them up because they are #2 by performance, also they convincingly beat a good team on the road. Knuckled down on Gophs rushing attack, left them unable to get consistent yards and then points.
3. Michigan: Welp. Offensively, they started off amazing - Patterson looked like a five star quarterback, receivers were open everywhere, and they were blocking Chase Young. It couldn't last, but it was good enough to win the game if they got anything at all out of their defense. Which they didn't.
4. Minnesota: A deflating loss given the circumstances and the score, but no shame to be had here. They had some chances, and it didn't quite work out. Getting down near the goal line and not scoring hurt. Also, don't punt when you have 4th and 2 at the opponent's 35 yard line.
5. Penn State: I know they had their backup QB in, but getting outgained by Rutgers is...not good.
6. Iowa: Nice win to end the season a perfect Iowaish 9-3.
7. Indiana: Hoosiers are 8-4 and win a game in OT.
Woof
8. Nebraska: I don't care, I had been putting Illinois here but I simply cannot. Nebraska at least made for entertainment.
9. Purdue: Same. Also, check back next year to see where this is going. Well I guess you could say that about Nebraska too.
10. Michigan State: Somehow found themselves in a competetive game with Maryland. Impressive. Well not really.
11. Illinois: Somehow got blown out at home by Northwestern, who passed for 55 yards.
12. Northwestern: Victory
13. Maryland: Almost a victory
14. Rutgers: Hey they outgained PSU, they should get hats. Also bring on Schiano.
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1) Ohio State (1)
2) Wisconsin (3)
3) Michigan (2)
4) Penn State (4)
5) Minnesota (5)
6) Iowa (6)
7) Indiana (7)
8) Purdue (9)
9) Nebraska (10)
10) Illinois (8)
11) Michigan State (11)
12) Northwestern (13)
13) Maryland (12)
14) Rutgers (14)
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Minnesota
4. Penn State
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Indiana
8. Michigan State
9. Illinois
10. Nebraska
11. Purdue
12. Maryland
13. Northwestern
14. Rutgers
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1. Ohio State. And it's not remotely close to...
2. Wisconsin. And it's not remotely close to #1. Has all of its rivalry trophies.
3. Penn State. That was ugly.
4. Minnesota. Reality bites. Hard.
5. Michigan, but barely, over...
6. Iowa. Has 3 out 4 of its rivalry trophies.
7. Indiana. Seems to be turning a corner.
8. Nebraska. Wishes it was turning a corner.
9. Michigan State. Needs a coaching overhaul.
10. Purdue. Considering injuries, not too shabby.
11. Northwestern. You just had to go and cock up the season for...
12. Illinois. You just had to let #11 cock up your season.
13. Maryland. Don't know what to say, but you're better than...
114.
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Posted by Fearless, in the week 13 board, this morning. I think he meant to put it here.
1. OSU
2. PSU
3. Wisconsin
4. Minnesota
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Indiana
9. Illinois
10. MSU
10. Purdue
11. Nebraska
12. Maryland
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13. Northwestern
14. Rutgers
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correct
I just can't seem to hit this the past few weeks
getting old and the stress of losing seasons is wearing on me
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Michigan
5. Iowa
6. Minnesota
7. Indiana
8. Illinois
9. Michigan State
10. Purdue
11. Nebraska
13. Northwestern
12. Maryland
14. Rutgers
I see Lil Pig's contention that Iowa went 1-3 against 2 through 6, and is therefore 6th. Minnesota went 1-2 against 2 through 6. Iowa had a more difficult schedule that included Penn State, Michigan and Rutgers from the East, whereas Minnesota played Penn State, Rutgers and Maryland.
The Massey poll of computer polls ranks Iowa 17th and Minnesota 18th.
Minnesota played nonconference foes South Dakota State Univ. (W - 28-21) (8-4 FCS-team); Fresno State (W 38-35 2-OT) (4-8); and Georgia Southern (W 35-32) (7-5).
Iowa played nonconference foes Miami Ohio (W - 38-14) (7-5); Iowa State (W 18-17) (7-5); and Middle Tennessee State (W - 48-3) (4-8 FBS-team).
Head-To-Head, Iowa defeated Minnesota. If I could I would rate Iowa and Minnesota at 5.5, but it isn't possible in this polling.
It has been an interesting season. Minnesota and Indiana made advances. Nebraska remains down more than many of us expected.
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Teams listed by opponents' records minus that team's results (SOS - conference games only):
41-31 Wisconsin
40-32 Michigan, Rutgers, Northwestern
39-33 Penn St
37-35 Nebraska
36-36 Maryland
35-37 Michigan St, Iowa, Purdue
34-38 Ohio St,
32-40 Illinois
30-42 Minnesota, Indiana
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So we see here that the Gophers, Illini, and Hoosiers took advantage of weak schedules to have upstart years. That's not to dismiss them, many mediocre programs don't take advantage during such seasons, so good on them.
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Rutgers and N'Western may have been awful for a good reason this year - SOS.
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Ohio State's weekly blowouts is what happens when the most talented team also has a weak conference schedule. But a great team should blow out lesser teams, and that's what they did.
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Wisconsin earned its West title, for sure.
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I wanted to post that as a precursor to these rankings. I'm simply going to multiply conference SOS (above) with conference win% (who you played and how you did). That's how they'll be ranked here:
1. OSU (.472)
2. Wisconsin (.442)
3. Penn St (.422)
4. Michigan (.370)
5.(tie) Minnesota & Iowa (.324) - sorry if this messes up the average
7. Indiana (.232)
8. Michigan St (.216)
9. Illinois (.197)
10. Nebraska (.171)
11. Purdue (.162)
12. N'Western (.062)
13. Maryland (.056)
14. Rutgers (.000)
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1. Ohio State - Proved on the field to this point. We'll know for sure after this weekend
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2. Wisconsin - Best team not named tOSU in the B1G
3. Minnesota - Still a very good season. Just didn't have the horses to take down the Badgers.
4. Penn State - Didn't look that good vs Rutgers. Perhaps they were just playing out the schedule.
5. Michigan - Looked good in the first half on offense, but just couldn't keep up down the stretch.
6. Iowa - Iowa being Iowa. Not great, but pretty good.
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7. Indiana - First winning B1G schedule in 25 years? Congrats
8. Illinois - Disappointing loss to NW, but still going bowling.
9. Michigan State - Bowl eligible, barely. Struggled to beat Maryland. Not a good sign.
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10. Nebraska - Gave Iowa a good game. Showed some life this year. But they have a long way to go to be relevant in the West.
11. Purdue - Great game, just came up short. Bad news, no bowl. Good news, a lot of Freshmen got valuable experience this year.
12. Northwestern - Good finish to a disappointing season.
13. Maryland - Hung tough with Sparty.
14. Rutgers - Gave Penn St. a good game.
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1 OSU
2 Wisconsin
3 Minnesota
4 PSU
5 Iowa
6 Michigan
7 Illinois
8 Indiana
9 MSU
10 Purdue
11 NW
12 Nebraska
13 MD
14 Rutgers
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1 Ohio St
2 Wisconsin
3 Penn St
4 Michigan
5 Iowa
6 Minnesota
7 Illinois
8 Indiana
9 Michigan St
10 Purdue
11 Northwestern
12 Nebraska
13 Maryland
14 Rutgers
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1) Ohio State: and it isn't that close.
2) Wisconsin: two blowout wins against the top six, and a third over rival Iowa: more than anyone other than Ohio State; loss to Illinois still really stings.
3) Penn State: moved down because Wisconsin put the hurt on Minnesota and Michigan.
4) Michigan: Ohio State is really good, huh?
5) Iowa: If only Michigan had been at home (see below)
6) Minnesota: tough call, but Minnesota's case to be higher is a one-score win over Penn State at home (see post below).
7) Indiana: wins matter.
8) Illinois? Even with the terrible loss, the Illini have a better win than anyone below, and a decent record.
9) Michigan State: even with the mediocre win, who gets promoted ahead of them?
10) Purdue: of the bottom dwellers, this team showed moments of real promise.
11) Northwestern: solid win. Too bad it was only the 3rd, and first in conference.
12) Nebraska: made Iowa work for it. But lost.
13) Maryland: upset bid fell short, and only conference win was against a historically bad team.
14) State University of Doesn't Play Football. This team beat UMass and Liberty. I mean, come on...
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2-6 remain pretty interesting.
Wisconsin: still has the worst loss of the group, but has two blowout wins, including one on the road, against 2-6, plus beating Iowa to go 3-0 against 2-6. I think Wisconsin is the pretty easy #2 here. Blowout loss at Ohio State after getting to 10-7 in the 3rd quarter...then things snowballed.
Penn State's case for #3? Beat Iowa on the road and Michigan, and lost by a single score at Minnesota (2-1 against 2-6); and gave Ohio State a mild start in the 3rd quarter thanks to a couple of turnovers. Interesting that at 21-0, Ohio State was cruising to another blowout, then two quick turnovers, and bam, PSU gets credit for a close game against the Buckeyes.
Michigan's case: Notre Dame. And a 1-score win against a good Iowa team. Poor Iowa. Blowout losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State (no shame there--unless you are a Michigan fan), and a loss to Penn State, so 1-2 against the 2-6.
Minnesota's Case: Penn State (at home). One-score loss to Iowa, and a blowout loss to Wisconsin at home. Ouch. Tense game in the 3rd quarter turned into a rout. 1-2 vs. 2-6. Soft schedule (though credit where it is due, they worked over their weak B1G competition...hear that Wisconsin?).
Iowa: one-score losers, again, and again, and again, and...hey--a one-score win against Minnesota! They don't score a lot, but they find a way to win against teams not in the 2-6... (1-3). No blowout losses.
All of this has me re-shaping 2-6: and moving Minnesota all the way down. And Iowa/Michigan ends up the toughest call for me. Iowa's problem is the lack of a really good win and the head-to-head loss (to be fair, on the road--different result in Iowa City?), but Michigan's blowout loss in Madison is hard to ignore (Iowa was a two-point conversion away from maybe going to OT). Other than the helmet, what tells us Michigan is better? Coming on strong late against a weak schedule? No, but Notre Dame is pretty good, and the Wolverines took it to the wood shed.
Wisconsin
Penn State
Michigan
Iowa
Minnesota
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- OHIO STATE (1) - nothing left to say
- WISCONSIN (4) - midseason hiccup aside, dominated Michigan and Minnesota
- PENN STATE (2) - ho hum finale
- MICHIGAN (3) - probably the easiest one, lost to all 3 above them, 2 convincingly, beating everyone below them, all but Iowa convincingly
- IOWA (6) - probably the best Big Ten game of the weekend kicked things off
- MINNESOTA (5) - UM getting thumped by their rival pushed Minnesota faring the same down the list of things people actually noticed
- MICHIGAN STATE (8) - ugly win over a team they should have beat by more...
- INDIANA (9) - ugly win over a team they should have beat by more, but...
- ILLINOIS (7) - a win is a win, and not just losing, but losing big to Northwestern might be the worst loss of this Big Ten season
- NEBRASKA (10) - that is a game Nebraska simply had to figure out a way to win
- PURDUE (11) - got way down against a rival, with a backup quarterback, but showed a ton of moxie to claw back into it
- NORTHWESTERN (12) - nice win, but too little, too late
- MARYLAND (13) - the fact that they hadn't given up is a good sign, but the offense is still far too reliant on big plays
- RUTGERS (14)
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I have done this the last few weeks, here is a ranking based on each team's average relative performance against the nine B1G teams that they played as compared to the other eight B1G teams that played that same team:
(https://i.imgur.com/L5L2fCV.png)
- 1.61 Ohio State
- tie 3.11 Michigan
- tie 3.11 Penn State
- tie 3.11 Wisconsin
- 3.83 Minnesota
- 4.00 Iowa
- 5.33 Indiana
- 5.78 Illinois
- 5.83 Nebraska
- 6.11 Michigan State
- 6.33 Northwestern
- 6.39 Purdue
- 7.33 Maryland
- 8.11 Rutgers
Now if we eliminate each team's best and worst relative performance here is the ranking:
- 1.43 Ohio State
- 2.57 Penn State
- 2.93 Michigan
- 3.00 Wisconsin
- 3.64 Minnesota
- 4.00 Iowa
- 5.57 Indiana
- 5.86 Illinois
- 5.93 Nebraska
- 6.29 Michigan State
- 6.50 Purdue
- 6.71 Northwestern
- 7.86 Maryland
- 8.43 Rutgers
It is interesting that Michigan does a lot better here than in most rankings. The other interesting thing is the enormous gap between the two newbies and everybody else. Note that Rutgers' two best relative performances were being 5th best against Ohio State and 6th best against Penn State. It is pretty clear that in those cases the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions simply didn't see any need to grind the Scarlet Knights into the dust. Other than that Rutgers had the worst relative performance or second worst relative performance against their other seven opponents.
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1 Buckeyes
2 Badgers
3 Nittany Lions
4 Wolverines
5 Hawkeyes
6 Golden Gophers
7 Hoosiers
8 Illini
9 Spartans
10 Boilermakers
11 Wildcats
12 Cornhuskers
13 Terrapins
14 Scarlet Knights
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12) Maryland
13) Northwestern
What are you seeing that I am completely missing to justify Maryland over Northwestern?
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12. Maryland
13. Northwestern
Same question?
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perhaps they missed the Cat's last game?
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What are you seeing that I am completely missing to justify Maryland over Northwestern?
I don't understand the outrage.
- They're both 3-9
- Northwestern holds 1 win against a .500 team
- Maryland holds 1 win against a "ranked" team that turned out 5-7
- Maryland played a slightly more difficult schedule
- Most computer models I looked at have them both between 90 and 105. Massey composite has NU (94), Maryland (102)
They're basically T-12 in my mind
Additionally, I'm not sure how much thought gets put into rankings after 5-6.
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What are you seeing that I am completely missing to justify Maryland over Northwestern?
apathy
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Posted by Fearless, in the week 13 board, this morning. I think he meant to put it here.
Got it, and I corrected his misnumbering as well.
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11. Nebraska
13. Northwestern
12. Maryland
14. Rutgers
Hawk, did you intend your vote to be the numbers you used:
- 11 Nebraska
- 12 Maryland
- 13 Northwestern
- 14 Rutgers
Or the order you used:
- 11 Nebraska
- 12 Northwestern
- 13 Maryland
- 14 Rutgers
?
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5.(tie) Minnesota & Iowa (.324) - sorry if this messes up the average
It does. The way I do the compilation and vote distribution I can't accept ties. Consequently, I broke it the way I always do, by taking the first team you listed (Minnesota) and putting them first (#5) and the second team you listed (Iowa) and putting them second (#6).
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I don't understand the outrage.
- They're both 3-9
- Northwestern holds 1 win against a .500 team
- Maryland holds 1 win against a "ranked" team that turned out 5-7
- Maryland played a slightly more difficult schedule
- Most computer models I looked at have them both between 90 and 105. Massey composite has NU (94), Maryland (102)
They're basically T-12 in my mind
Additionally, I'm not sure how much thought gets put into rankings after 5-6.
Please don't take it as "outrage". I don't think anybody gets outraged over the placement of the bottom few teams in the league.
I questioned it because I just don't see it. I disagree with your analysis and do not see this as being close at all. Both went 1-8 in conference, I'll compare wins first:
- Maryland's win was a blowout of Rutgers but Rutgers is BY FAR the worst team in the league. Their closest B1G game all year was a 21 point loss to a PSU team that just didn't care coming off of losing their hopes and dreams the prior week. Blowing out Rutgers proves next-to-nothing to me.
- Northwestern's win was a blowout of a decent Illinois team that has four B1G wins to their name and will go bowling this year. Northwestern's is a MUCH better win.
They had six common opponents:
- Both got blown out by Ohio State, Maryland's loss was worse.
- Both lost to Minnesota but NU's was a 16 point loss that was reasonably competitive while UMD lost 52-10 in a game that was never in doubt.
- Both lost to Indiana but Maryland's loss was competitive while Northwestern got run off the field.
- Both lost to MSU but Maryland's loss was competitive while Northwestern got run off the field.
- Both lost to Purdue but the Boilermakers ran the Terrapins off the field and needed a last second FG to beat NU by 2.
- Both lost to Nebraska but the Cornhuskers ran the Terrapins off the field in a 54-7 slaughter while they needed a last second FG to beat NU by 3.
I see this as a 4-2 (or arguably 3-2 if you treat the tOSU blowouts as equivalent) advantage for the Cats.
I've covered their wins and their common opponents, here are each team's other two B1G games:
- Maryland got destroyed by PSU and M
- Northwestern lost 20-0 to Iowa and had a reasonably competitive game with Wisconsin.
I see this as somewhat better by NU.
OOC:
Maryland's OOC is probably a little better but this was also way back in August/September.
I just don't see how this adds up to Maryland > Northwestern.
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Wisconsin: Blowout loss at Ohio State after getting to 10-7 in the 3rd quarter...then things snowballed.
Penn State's Interesting that at 21-0, Ohio State was cruising to another blowout, then two quick turnovers, and bam, PSU gets credit for a close game against the Buckeyes.
First, I thought your take on 2-6 in general was interesting. I think that PSU has a decent argument for #2 because their losses are better but just as an "eye test" thing, I "feel" that UW is better. After those two, I could make a credible case for any arrangement of M/IA/MN at 4-6.
Your point about the UW/PSU vs tOSU comparison is interesting. I watched both games of course. I was in the 'Shoe for the Wisconsin game and watched the PSU game on TV. For most of the games, the UW game "felt" closer. However, if you just look at final score the PSU game is much closer so you are right, PSU gets credit for a close game against the Buckeyes.
Comparative Timeline (time is total time remaining in the game):
- 53-37 minutes: PSU down 7-0, UW tied 0-0
- 37-32 minutes: PSU down 7-0, UW down 3-0
- 32-31 minutes: PSU down 14-0, UW down 3-0
- 31-27 minutes: PSU down 14-0, UW down 10-0
- 27-26 minutes: PSU down 14-0, UW down 10-7
- 26-25 minutes: PSU down 21-0, UW down 10-7
- 25-23 minutes: PSU down 21-0, UW down 17-7
- 23-23.5 minutes: PSU down 21-7, UW down 17-7
- 23.5-21 minutes: PSU down 21-14, UW down 17-7
- 21-19 minutes: PSU down 21-14, UW down 24-7
- 19-13 minutes: PSU down 21-17, UW down 24-7
- 13-7 minutes: PSU down 28-17, UW down 31-7
- 7 minutes to end-of-game: PSU down 28-17, UW down 31-7
I bolded the closer score. Until deep in the third quarter the UW game "felt" closer. Also, as an Ohio State fan I would honestly feel more confident playing PSU again than playing UW again. I feel like the Buckeyes didn't play all that well against PSU. Those back-to-back fumbles were uncharacteristic for Ohio State and without those the PSU game is easily a blowout.
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- Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 - As I see it, the Buckeyes are #1 even if the lose the CG badly.
- Wisconsin - 3,3,3,3,3,3,2,2,2,2,2,2,4,3 - The Badgers are something of an enigma. They have the best two wins of this 2-6 group (blowouts of M at home and MN on the road) but they also have, BY FAR, the worst loss (IL). They also looked better than PSU against tOSU for most of that game but then imploded and ended up losing much worse (31 compared to 11 points). The Wisconsin team that blew out Michigan and Minnesota and hung with tOSU for most of three quarters is EASILY #2. The Wisconsin team that lost to IL, struggled with NU, and got anihalated by tOSU for the last 25 minutes of that game is barely #6.
- Penn State - 2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,4 - I'm not docking them for the "close" game with RU. I think that is a reasonable hangover after losing your hopes and dreams a week prior.
- Michigan - 5,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,5,5,4,4,2,2 - It feels weird to move Michigan UP coming off of a 29 point blowout loss at home but losing badly at home to Ohio State is "better" than losing badly at home to Wisconsin.
- Minnesota - 4,5,5,6,6,6,6,9,10,10,10,8,13,10 - this 4-6 group is tough to sort out.
- Iowa - 6,6,6,5,5,5,5,5,4,4,5,6,5,6 - The win over Minnesota is nice but they still have a home loss to PSU. Extremely close to 4-6.
- Michigan State - 9,9,8,7,7,7,7,6,6,6,7,7,7,9 - I moved the Spartans up because I now believe that they might actually be able to beat Indiana again if the two played again but it is close, really close.
- Indiana - 8,8,9,8,8,10,10,11,11,11,11,13,12,12 - It is close between IU and ILL.
- Illinois - 7,7,7,9,9,13,13,13,13,13,13,12,11,13 - With that ugly loss to NU they are now closer to PU than IU.
- Purdue - 10,10,10,10,11,9,9,12,12,12,12,11,10,5 - competitive with IU, good on them.
- Nebraska - 11,11,11,11,10,11,11,8,9,8,6,9,6,8 - Competitive with Iowa but basically everybody (better or worse) was competitive with Iowa. Seriously, the Hawkeyes beat NU by 20 and RU by 30. Their other seven B1G games were decided by 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 9 points.
- Northwestern - 12,12,12,12,12,8,8,7,7,9,9,10,9,7 - A lot better than the last two.
- Maryland - 13,13,13,13,13,12,12,10,8,7,8,5,8,11 - What happened to this season? Haven't I asked that about this team in previous seasons as well?
- Rutgers - 14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14 - Compared to other B1G teams, the Scarlet Knights have the worst game against six of their nine B1G opponents.
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. Minnesota
6. Iowa
7. Indiana
8. Illinois (Don't know what that insanity was against NW...)
9. Purdue
10. Nebraska
11. Michigan State
12. Northwestern
13. Maryland
14. Rutgers
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Your point about the UW/PSU vs tOSU comparison is interesting. I watched both games of course. I was in the 'Shoe for the Wisconsin game and watched the PSU game on TV. For most of the games, the UW game "felt" closer. However, if you just look at final score the PSU game is much closer so you are right, PSU gets credit for a close game against the Buckeyes.
...
Until deep in the third quarter the UW game "felt" closer. Also, as an Ohio State fan I would honestly feel more confident playing PSU again than playing UW again. I feel like the Buckeyes didn't play all that well against PSU. Those back-to-back fumbles were uncharacteristic for Ohio State and without those the PSU game is easily a blowout.
Yeah, but at some level comparing losses (which is what I was doing) is a little silly. Yes, PSU gets some credit for the final score (but they also made the plays, whether OSU played uncharacteristically or not), and yes, for much of the game, Wisconsin felt like it was more in the game (but not for the part of the game that really mattered, e.g., the end). But your point about which Wisconsin team we're talking about--the one that got blown off the field in the 4th quarter against OSU, lost to Illinois (and struggled a little with Northwestern), or the one that mopped the field with Michigan and Minnesota (in the second half)--is a good one. PSU (and Iowa!) was more consistent over the course of the season, but without the higher highs and the very low low in Champaign.
We'll get to see Wisconsin try again this week, on a neutral field. I fully anticipate Ohio State wins going away (two scores is my bet, but closer to 16 than 9, and nursing the clock throughout the 4th quarter). As a Badger fan, I'm frustrated that Wisconsin will surely lose ground to PSU because of its third loss, which is silly because (1) it's the probable outcome of the #8 team playing the #1 team; and (2) because PSU would likely lose as well (the probable outcome for the #10 team playing the #1 team), and Wisconsin will likely lose the Rose Bowl over that. That's a bummer, particularly because, despite the Illinois loss, I think Wisconsin is the second best team in the conference (and because I'm a Wisconsin fan). But such is life--and the nature of Wisconsin making two very costly turnovers at the end of the Illinois game.
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Yeah, but at some level comparing losses (which is what I was doing) is a little silly. Yes, PSU gets some credit for the final score (but they also made the plays, whether OSU played uncharacteristically or not), and yes, for much of the game, Wisconsin felt like it was more in the game (but not for the part of the game that really mattered, e.g., the end). But your point about which Wisconsin team we're talking about--the one that got blown off the field in the 4th quarter against OSU, lost to Illinois (and struggled a little with Northwestern), or the one that mopped the field with Michigan and Minnesota (in the second half)--is a good one. PSU (and Iowa!) was more consistent over the course of the season, but without the higher highs and the very low low in Champaign.
We'll get to see Wisconsin try again this week, on a neutral field. I fully anticipate Ohio State wins going away (two scores is my bet, but closer to 16 than 9, and nursing the clock throughout the 4th quarter). As a Badger fan, I'm frustrated that Wisconsin will surely lose ground to PSU because of its third loss, which is silly because (1) it's the probable outcome of the #8 team playing the #1 team; and (2) because PSU would likely lose as well (the probable outcome for the #10 team playing the #1 team), and Wisconsin will likely lose the Rose Bowl over that. That's a bummer, particularly because, despite the Illinois loss, I think Wisconsin is the second best team in the conference (and because I'm a Wisconsin fan). But such is life--and the nature of Wisconsin making two very costly turnovers at the end of the Illinois game.
If we talk about the PSU-OSU game for a moment -
Penn State's starting QB was injured before the game and it limited his mobility. They couldn't move the ball and started down 21-0. Eventually Clifford reaggravated the injury and was replaced by the backup. Penn State's backup came in and was able to run PSU's offense (highly reliant on the QB rushing attack), but was completely destroyed by the crowd noise in the 4th quarter. The center was literally GUESSING when to snap the ball. If you saw the game, you know how bad the center and QB were out of sync.
I'm not saying that Penn State would win, but with a healthy QB and a neutral field the offense would have looked a bit better.
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Was PSU's QB hurt at Minnesota?
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Was PSU's QB hurt at Minnesota?
Yes.
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If we talk about the PSU-OSU game for a moment -
Penn State's starting QB was injured before the game and it limited his mobility. They couldn't move the ball and started down 21-0. Eventually Clifford reaggravated the injury and was replaced by the backup. Penn State's backup came in and was able to run PSU's offense (highly reliant on the QB rushing attack), but was completely destroyed by the crowd noise in the 4th quarter. The center was literally GUESSING when to snap the ball. If you saw the game, you know how bad the center and QB were out of sync.
I'm not saying that Penn State would win, but with a healthy QB and a neutral field the offense would have looked a bit better.
Perhaps Clifford being injured prior to the game with tOSU did hurt them early as they were pretty much unable to effectively move the ball while he was in there. It wasn't until the backup came into the game that PSU began consistently moving the chains.
It would be interesting to have PSU play tOSU with a healthy QB at a neutral field, but we don't. Also, PSU did get a bit of a break with FOX having the game played at Noon instead of a prime time game like they seem to do with the Bucks visit Happy Valley every other year. However it seems that the tOSU crowd made up for it by not drinking too much prior to the game and being awake for the entire game enough to generate some good crowd noise.
While I don't think you were insinuating that tOSU had an unfair advantage with the home crowd noise, it is not the first time that I've seen this concern. I just want to remind PSU fans that had Ohio State had a say in the matter, this would have been a prime time game to counter the White Outs that tOSU faces every other year when playing them on the road.
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Yes.
Is he still hurt?
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I would like all players to be healthy if possible, and I know you are not arguing that PSU would have won if everybody was healthy, but the odds of getting your players hurt also has to be taken into account too.
Having a running QB like PSU has its risks and its rewards. One of the risks is that your QB takes more hits and is more likely to be banged up by the end of season.
I have seen PSU beat many teams because its QB runs for a key 1st down or TD when they need it. But it cuts both way. I was actually surprised that McSorley did not get hurt more often in his long career at PSU.
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Is he still hurt?
They kept him out of the Rutgers game for some kind of procedure. He is expected to be back soon.
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- Ohio State - Clearly.
- Wisconsin - Ask tOSU, seems like every great BIG team has a bad game or bad loss. Not sure tho that they would crush M again if played today.
- Penn State - Did they have the IDGAF game against RU? Probably, still think this may be the only other team who could be competitive with tOSU if played again.
- Michigan - Playing to their expected level but got curb stomped by #1...but most do anyway
- Iowa - Sad when the kicker has more FGs than PATs but this D will keep them in every game. Imagine what they would have done with a playmaker under center. Don't get me wrong, I like Stanley but he is a game manager, not changer. Thanks for the memories AJE.
- Minnesota - wheels came off against IA but still a solid season. Enjoy your bowl game next (calendar) year.
- Indiana - Quietly had a great season by their standards.
- Illinois - played about as well as almost anyone the last half of the season, except for that "DOH" against NU.
- Michigan State - at least they figured out how to play the two HS teams in the conference
- Purdue - Too bad injuries are part of the game, my guess they could have very easily could have won the "get thumped by tOSU lottery" if they stayed healthy.
- Nebraska - Only because they are not the 12th best team in the conference.
- Northwestern - Thumping of IL solidified their spot here.
- Maryland - Jackson said they wanted to make Syracuse quit and thought they did a good job of it. So I have to ask, is that what they did the rest of the way? Good thing they got that quality win over...
- Rutgers - As easy as picking #1. Maybe Schiano will help them NOT be shut out in 4 BIG games next year.
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Perhaps Clifford being injured prior to the game with tOSU did hurt them early as they were pretty much unable to effectively move the ball while he was in there. It wasn't until the backup came into the game that PSU began consistently moving the chains.
It would be interesting to have PSU play tOSU with a healthy QB at a neutral field, but we don't. Also, PSU did get a bit of a break with FOX having the game played at Noon instead of a prime time game like they seem to do with the Bucks visit Happy Valley every other year. However it seems that the tOSU crowd made up for it by not drinking too much prior to the game and being awake for the entire game enough to generate some good crowd noise.
While I don't think you were insinuating that tOSU had an unfair advantage with the home crowd noise, it is not the first time that I've seen this concern. I just want to remind PSU fans that had Ohio State had a say in the matter, this would have been a prime time game to counter the White Outs that tOSU faces every other year when playing them on the road.
OSU was the better team, no doubt. I was responding to the Wisconsin/PSU comparisons in this thread.
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Results posted, votes through HawkFrenzy, 19 voters.
Changes this week:
- Wisconsin broke out of their 3rd/4th place tie with Minnesota and passed Penn State to take over 2nd place.
- Penn State was down a spot, passed by UW.
- Michigan was up a spot, passing MN.
- Minnesota fell out of their 3rd/4th place tie with Wisconsin and got passed by Michigan.
That is it.
Note my comment from the results post, the relative lack of upsets this year is highly unusual. There were only six games all year in which a team lost to a team that ended up ranked worse than them:
- #2 Wisconsin lost on the road to #8 Illinois by 1 point.
- #3 Penn State lost on the road to #5 Minnesota by 5 points.
- #5 Minnesota lost on the road to #6 Iowa by 4 points.
- #7 Indiana lost on the road to #9 Michigan State by 9 points. (Note, however that this was a 3 point game at the final snap but IU fumbled and MSU returned it for a TD).
- #8 Illinois lost at home to #11 Nebraska by 4 points.
- #8 Illinois lost at home to #12 Northwestern by 19 points.
Three of the six are highly excusable examples of a team losing on the road to a team that is almost as good as they are (PSU's, MN's, and IU's). Wisconsin's loss to Illinois and both of Illinois' "upset" losses are just goofy. Thus, Illinois was involved in all three significantly unusual results this year.
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They kept him out of the Rutgers game for some kind of procedure. He is expected to be back soon.
Do you think PSU would beat UW without him?
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Do you think PSU would beat UW without him?
No idea. Levis is a good QB, just young and inexperienced. A road game in Columbus is a tough place to start, but he did well there until the crowd noise destroyed his communications with the O-Line.
Clifford is a better passer for sure.
The staff made the decision to have Clifford play injured against the Minnesota/Indiana/Ohio State stretch. Apparently the choices were to play him injured or have a minor procedure done and have him miss a week or two. I'd like to think he'd have been back for the B1G championship, had Penn State gotten there, but I can't be sure of that. He will be back by the bowl game, or so I've heard.
If Clifford was not injured, I do think that PSU would beat UW on a neutral site. I think PSU matches up very well with UW. The game would probably be close, and I have no issues with anyone thinking UW is the better team. I do have an issue with people thinking that games against OSU clearly show UW was the better team.
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Comparing any two teams and their performance against OSU is not valid, in my opinion, because OSU presents matchup nightmares for any team - regardless of their respective strengths.
Comparing PSU's and UW's performances against Minnie is valid. Both were in Minnie. The results were very different.
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OSU was the better team, no doubt. I was responding to the Wisconsin/PSU comparisons in this thread.
I know and I really did take it the way you meant it. I just work with a few PSU fans (remotely, but we talk almost daily) and they were complaining that the stadium was too loud to allow the PSU offense to function. They thought it was unfair. I had to remind them that every other year, tOSU gets to go to Happy Valley AT NIGHT and get welcomed with their White Out. I don't hear them complaining about that every other year. Just an observation that was triggered by your post. Nothing more.
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comparing results vs common opponents is not usually a good indicator
this from a guy that can lose money to the bookie
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Comparing any two teams and their performance against OSU is not valid, in my opinion, because OSU presents matchup nightmares for any team - regardless of their respective strengths.
Comparing PSU's and UW's performances against Minnie is valid. Both were in Minnie. The results were very different.
Here's what I'd like to see:
Beat OSU in the B1G championship and then there's no more debate. :)
In the meantime, however, I'd like to mention that even Northwestern could beat Illinois...
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Third party smack, eh?
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Here's what I'd like to see:
Beat OSU in the B1G championship and then there's no more debate. :)
In the meantime, however, I'd like to mention that even Northwestern could beat Illinois...
and the Frosted Huskers
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Comparing any two teams and their performance against OSU is not valid, in my opinion, because OSU presents matchup nightmares for any team - regardless of their respective strengths.
Comparing PSU's and UW's performances against Minnie is valid. Both were in Minnie. The results were very different.
comparing results vs common opponents is not usually a good indicator
this from a guy that can lose money to the bookie
The problem with comparing results with a single common opponent, IMHO, is not so much the matchup issues (although that is a factor) but the fact that no team plays at exactly the same level in every game. Ie, PSU had a closer final score with Ohio State than Wisconsin did. That could mean any of the following:
- Simply that PSU is better, or
- That PSU had a really good game against tOSU, or
- That Wisconsin had a really bad game against tOSU, or
- That tOSU had a really bad game against PSU, or
- That tOSU had a really good game against UW, or
- Any combination of the above.
My long-standing feeling on this has been that the problem with comparing results against a single common opponent is not that the theory is invalid but that there are not enough data points. Rather than debating which (tOSU or MN) or debating the nature of an individual result, the better solution, IMHO, is to use more data points. UW and PSU vs all of their common B1G opponents:
- UW lost to #1 tOSU by 31, PSU lost to them by 11: Advantage PSU
- UW beat #4 M by 21, PSU beat them by 7: Advantage UW
- UW beat #5 MN by 21, PSU lost to them by 5: Advantage UW
- UW beat #6 IA by 2, PSU beat them by 5: Advantage PSU
- UW beat #9 MSU by 38, PSU beat them by 21: Advantage UW
- UW beat #10 PU by 21, PSU beat them by 28: Advantage PSU
I see a 3-3 split and that makes sense to me because I think these two teams are pretty close to one-another.
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Please don't take it as "outrage". I don't think anybody gets outraged over the placement of the bottom few teams in the league.
I questioned it because I just don't see it. I disagree with your analysis and do not see this as being close at all. Both went 1-8 in conference, I'll compare wins first:
- Maryland's win was a blowout of Rutgers but Rutgers is BY FAR the worst team in the league. Their closest B1G game all year was a 21 point loss to a PSU team that just didn't care coming off of losing their hopes and dreams the prior week. Blowing out Rutgers proves next-to-nothing to me.
- Northwestern's win was a blowout of a decent Illinois team that has four B1G wins to their name and will go bowling this year. Northwestern's is a MUCH better win.
They had six common opponents:
- Both got blown out by Ohio State, Maryland's loss was worse.
- Both lost to Minnesota but NU's was a 16 point loss that was reasonably competitive while UMD lost 52-10 in a game that was never in doubt.
- Both lost to Indiana but Maryland's loss was competitive while Northwestern got run off the field.
- Both lost to MSU but Maryland's loss was competitive while Northwestern got run off the field.
- Both lost to Purdue but the Boilermakers ran the Terrapins off the field and needed a last second FG to beat NU by 2.
- Both lost to Nebraska but the Cornhuskers ran the Terrapins off the field in a 54-7 slaughter while they needed a last second FG to beat NU by 3.
I see this as a 4-2 (or arguably 3-2 if you treat the tOSU blowouts as equivalent) advantage for the Cats.
I've covered their wins and their common opponents, here are each team's other two B1G games:
- Maryland got destroyed by PSU and M
- Northwestern lost 20-0 to Iowa and had a reasonably competitive game with Wisconsin.
I see this as somewhat better by NU.
OOC:
Maryland's OOC is probably a little better but this was also way back in August/September.
I just don't see how this adds up to Maryland > Northwestern.
Not trying to be disrespectful, but it took me until now to muster up the energy to read this, as I really have no interest in dissecting the bottom of the league.
By outrage, I simply mean "care enough to ask someone to justify their personal opinion on a highly subjective matter." That just seems odd to me. However, I know you love to dive into this stuff, so I'll give a very brief response:
You're judging them on MOV (MOL, really). Northwestern is a ball control team. MOV bias punishes winning ball control teams (like Iowa) and rewards losing ball control teams (like Nortwestern).
RE: OOC. By lumping all the games together, you've ignored Maryland's biggest win (Syracuse). By discounting those OOC games as being early in the season, and therefore less significant, you also ignore that Northwestern benefited from a cupcake in November.
I maintain my original stance. NU has a slightly better win, Maryland played a slightly harder schedule. I chose to move NU ahead of Maryland this week, but it wasn't a no-brainer; more of a "meh, throw 'em a bone for picking up a win."
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Not trying to be disrespectful, but it took me until now to muster up the energy to read this, as I really have no interest in dissecting the bottom of the league.
That is fair, nobody really cares all that much about the 12th/13th distinction.
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except for #13
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Sad that I had to go back to see what was actually being argued since it appeared both were saying the same thing and it was the bottom part of the rankings, not #2 vs #3. Then I found why this was even a topic. I will say that I read this thread every year and is probably #3 of my favorites (ELA holds #1 and #2 with the preseason rankings and weekly predictions). I actually have the cajones to contribute once in a while. What I like about it the most, is that everyone has their own idea of how they put together their list, everywhere from who would win on a neutral field today to some weird algorithm that compares punters shoe sizes.
Be honest, does anyone think the coaches or AP polls are any different. I guarantee that neither of those watch more than a couple of games and is more concerned about the stat line yet they can somehow pick the best 25 teams in the country. FWIW, I truly believe that coaches overrate teams on their schedule so it will help their SOS. Prime example is IA. Stat lines show they have not been blown out but I am positive there are at least 30 teams out there who could win the 10-3 shootout, yet they have stayed in the teens.
Rankings are tough because as the season goes, every team changes to an extent. Some progress and get better (ILL other than the WTF against NU), some are competitive thru adversity (PU and massive amount of injuries), some mail it in after their 1st humbling moment (Mary) and others fine tune specific aspects to become more complete or just need time to gel at certain areas.
These threads are fun, even when there are disagreements. Mostly it's not about the bottom tho which does make this more interesting. For the lawyers out there, please tell me how hard it is to dispute an opinion. Actually, the last statement goes to everyone but having a Law and Order moment :57:.
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Just now read the results posted from this week.
I see that Fleck finished 4th in the COTY prediction behind Allen, Lovie and Chryst. So why did the coaches vote Fleck as the actual COTY?
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so Day finished 5th?
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Updated Massey composite computer ranking (prior to last night), with 114 rankings (last week in parenthesis)
- OHIO STATE (1)
- LSU (3)
- Clemson (2)
- Georgia (4)
- WISCONSIN (10)
- Utah (7)
- Oklahoma (9)
- PENN STATE (6)
- Florida (12)
- Alabama (5)
- Notre Dame (11)
- Baylor (13)
- Auburn (16)
- MICHIGAN (8)
- Oregon (14)
- Memphis (17)
- IOWA (18)
- MINNESOTA (15)
- Boise State (20)
- Appalachian State (21)
- Cincinnati (19)
- Navy (23)
- USC (22)
- Air Force (-)
- Central Florida (-)
- 35. Indiana (38)
- 42. Michigan State (43)
- 63. Nebraska (61)
- 68. Illinois (51)
- 83. Purdue (78)
- 93. Northwestern (106)
- 102. Maryland (102)
- 119. Rutgers (118)
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so Day finished 5th?
In the COTY prediction? Actually he was 6th
1. Allen
2. Lovie
3. Chryst
4. Fleck
5. Franklin
6. Day
7. Ferentz