Assessing the top-3 based on common opponents and H2H:
- H2H: Ohio State is much better than Michigan, Michigan slightly better than Northwestern.
- vs Penn State: Michigan is much better than Ohio State.
- vs Wisconsin: Michigan is much better than Northwestern.
- vs Michigan State: Ohio State, then Michigan, then Northwestern.
- vs Purdue: Northwestern is much better than Ohio State.
- vs Nebraska: Michigan is much better than Ohio State, Ohio State slightly better than Northwestern.
- vs Maryland: Michigan is much better than Ohio State.
- vs Minnesota: Ohio State is slightly better than Northwestern (might be a wash with HFA).
- vs Indiana: Ohio State is better than Michigan.
- vs Rutgers: Ohio State is slightly better than Michigan, Michigan much better than Northwestern.
Northwestern loses every comparison except Purdue. I think they are a distant third at best. Even if they win the CG they'll still be no better than third in my rankings because they can't make up that much ground in one game.
Comparing just the Buckeyes and Wolverines for the top two spots:
- Ohio State has a big advantage in the H2H and smaller advantages in the games against MSU, IU, and RU.
- Michigan has big advantages in the games against Penn State, Nebraska, and Maryland.
I honestly see Ohio State/Michigan as being very close. It obviously didn't look like it on Saturday but I don't like relying too much on just one game. If we relied only on Ohio State's game against Purdue the Buckeyes would be ranked somewhere around #12.
Ohio State has more advantages (4>3) but other than the H2H they are close where Michigan's three advantages are humongous (34 points better against PSU, 41 points better against UNL, 21 points better against UMD).
Last week,
in a different thread, I said that I would still rank Michigan #1 this week even if Ohio State won THE GAME. I'm still leaning that way, but I honestly didn't see THAT big of a win for Ohio State as a plausible possibility.
Ohio State showed a ceiling on Saturday that none of us knew they had. That ceiling is clearly higher than anything that any other B1G team has shown. That doesn't mean that the Buckeyes have consistently played like #1 (they haven't) or even that they have the highest floor (IMHO, they don't).