CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 23, 2018, 05:12:57 PM
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Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=6637.0).
Votes through me, 15 voters:
| Team/Poster | AVG | Rank | StdDev | Best | Worst | Range | LW AVG | LW Rank | Chg Avg | Chg Rank |
| tOSU | 1.13 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2.42 | 2 | 1.28 | 1 |
| M | 2.13 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | (1.13) | -1 |
| NU | 2.93 | 3 | 0.80 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3.00 | 3 | 0.07 | 0 |
| PSU | 3.87 | 4 | 0.52 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3.92 | 4 | 0.05 | 0 |
| Iowa | 5.13 | 5 | 0.64 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 6.08 | 6 | 0.95 | 1 |
| PU | 7.07 | 6 | 1.10 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 7.42 | 8 | 0.35 | 2 |
| UW | 7.27 | 7 | 1.49 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 6.00 | 5 | (1.27) | -2 |
| MSU | 7.60 | 8 | 1.50 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 6.83 | 7 | (0.77) | -1 |
| UNL | 9.07 | 9 | 1.53 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 8.75 | 9 | (0.32) | 0 |
| MN | 9.80 | 10 | 1.57 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 11.25 | 11 | 1.45 | 1 |
| MD | 10.33 | 11 | 1.05 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 9.83 | 10 | (0.50) | -1 |
| IU | 11.67 | 12 | 0.49 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 11.50 | 12 | (0.17) | 0 |
| ILL | 13.00 | 13 | - | 13 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 13 | - | 0 |
| RU | 14.00 | 14 | - | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 14 | - | 0 |
Drop the high and low:
| Team/Poster | AVG | Rank | StdDev | Best | Worst | Range | LW AVG | LW Rank | Chg Avg |
| tOSU | 1.08 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2.30 | 2 | 1.22 |
| M | 2.15 | 2 | 0.38 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1.00 | 1 | (1.15) |
| NU | 3.00 | 3 | 0.58 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2.90 | 3 | (0.10) |
| PSU | 3.85 | 4 | 0.38 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3.90 | 4 | 0.05 |
| Iowa | 5.08 | 5 | 0.28 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 6.10 | 6 | 1.02 |
| PU | 7.08 | 6.5 | 0.86 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 7.40 | 8 | 0.32 |
| UW | 7.08 | 6.5 | 1.12 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 5.90 | 5 | (1.18) |
| MSU | 7.62 | 8 | 1.26 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 6.80 | 7 | (0.82) |
| UNL | 9.15 | 9 | 1.28 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 9.10 | 9 | (0.05) |
| MN | 9.85 | 10 | 1.34 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 11.30 | 11 | 1.45 |
| MD | 10.38 | 11 | 0.77 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 9.70 | 10 | (0.68) |
| IU | 11.69 | 12 | 0.48 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 11.60 | 12 | (0.09) |
| ILL | 13.00 | 13 | - | 13 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 13 | - |
| RU | 14.00 | 14 | - | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 14 | - |
Various graphical representations:
<br />(https://i.ibb.co/R4DchMy/B1-GPR-2018-wk-13-pre-cur.jpg) (https://ibb.co/R4DchMy)<br /><br />(https://i.ibb.co/gSTC4TL/B1-GPR-2018-wk-13.jpg) (https://ibb.co/gSTC4TL)<br /><br />(https://i.ibb.co/k67y5tx/B1-GPR-2018-wk-13-dist.jpg) (https://ibb.co/k67y5tx)<br />
Schedule/performance chart:
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
| . | Team | tOSU | M | NU | PSU | Iowa | PU | UW | MSU | UNL | MN | MD | IU | ILL | RU | Team | . |
| 1 | tOSU | n/a | L by 23, A | miss | L by 1, H | miss | W by 29, H | miss | L by 20, H | L by 5, A | L by 16, A | L in OT, H | L by 23, A | miss | L by 49, A | tOSU | 1 |
| 2 | M | W by 23, H | n/a | L by 3, H | L by 35, A | miss | miss | L by 25, A | L by 14, H | L by 46, A | miss | L by 21, A | L by 11, A | miss | L by 35, H | M | 2 |
| 3 | NU | miss | W by 3, A | n/a | miss | L by 4, H | L by 4, H | L by 14, A | L by 10, H | L in OT, A | L by 10, A | miss | miss | L by 8, A | L by 3, H | NU | 3 |
| 4 | PSU | W by 1, A | W by 35, H | miss | n/a | L by 6, A | miss | L by 12, A | W by 4, A | miss | miss | L by 35, A | L by 5, H | L by 39, H | L by 13, H | PSU | 4 |
| 5 | Iowa | miss | miss | W by 4, A | W by 6, H | n/a | W by 2, H | W by 11, A | miss | L by 3, A | L by 17, H | L by 23, A | L by 26, H | L by 63, H | miss | Iowa | 5 |
| 6.5 | PU | L by 29, A | miss | W by 4, A | miss | L by 2, A | n/a | W in OT, A | W by 10, H | L by 14, H | W by 31, H | miss | L by 7, H | L by 39, H | miss | PU | 6.5 |
| 6.5 | UW | miss | W by 25, H | W by 14, H | W by 12, H | L by 11, H | L in OT, H | n/a | miss | L by 17, A | W by 22, A | miss | miss | L by 29, A | L by 14, A | UW | 6.5 |
| 8 | MSU | W by 20, A | W by 14, A | W by 10, A | L by 4, H | miss | L by 10, A | miss | n/a | W by 3, H | miss | L by 21, H | L by 14, H | miss | L by 4, A | MSU | 8 |
| 9 | UNL | W by 5, H | W by 46, H | W in OT, H | miss | W by 3, H | W by 14, A | W by 17, H | L by 3, A | n/a | L by 25, A | miss | miss | L by 19, A | miss | UNL | 9 |
| 10 | MN | W by 16, H | miss | W by 10, A | miss | W by 17, A | L by 31, A | L by 22, H | miss | W by 25, H | n/a | W by 29, H | L by 7, A | W by 24, H | miss | MN | 10 |
| 11 | MD | W in OT, A | W by 21, H | miss | W by 35, H | W by 23, H | miss | miss | W by 21, A | miss | L by 29, A | n/a | W by 2, H | L by 30, A | L by 27, A | MD | 11 |
| 12 | IU | W by 23, H | W by 11, H | miss | W by 5, A | W by 26, A | W by 7, A | miss | W by 14, A | miss | W by 7, H | L by 2, A | n/a | miss | L by 7, H | IU | 12 |
| 13 | ILL | miss | miss | W by 8, H | W by 39, A | W by 63,A | W by 39, A | W by 29, H | miss | W by 19, H | L by 24, A | W by 30, H | miss | n/a | L by 21, H | ILL | 13 |
| 14 | RU | W by 49, H | W by 35, A | W by 3, A | W by 13, A | miss | miss | W by 14, H | W by 4, H | miss | miss | W by 27, H | W by 7, A | W by 21, A | n/a | RU | 14 |
| . | Team | tOSU | M | NU | PSU | Iowa | PU | UW | MSU | UNL | MN | MD | IU | ILL | RU | Team | . |
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
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1. NW
2. OSU
3. Mich
4. PSU
5. Iowa
6. Purdue
7. MSU
8. Wisc
9. Minn
10. Neb
11. MD
12. Indy
13. ILL
14. Rut
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1. NW
LoL. Even if they blow out the Buckeyes in Indianapolis you couldn't justify ranking the Wildcats higher than third without ignoring half of their season.
Now what?
Michigan still looks like #1 overall but they looked like complete crap today.
Ohio State looked great today but looked like complete crap against UMD and PU.
Iowa has generally looked good, but they are 0-4 against B1G bowl teams.
Northwestern keeps managing to win ugly but they barely beat RU, barely beat IL, and had a horrible OOC.
Wisconsin has looked good at times but just got blown out in the Axe game.
This is getting harder rather than easier.
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I disagree about power ranking the teams. The regular season results are in. It may be a season in utter disarray, but generally you can go by the teams' conference records, and maybe some allowance for nonconference records, and some allowance for how the teams finished.
1. Ohio State
2. Northwestern
3. Michigan
4. Penn State
5. Iowa?
6. Wisconsin?
7. Purdue?
8. Michigan State
9. Nebraska?
10. Minnesota?
11. Maryland
12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
Okay, Medina, you win. It is harder than it looks when you get into the soft middle of the Big Ten.
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LoL. Even if they blow out the Buckeyes in Indianapolis you couldn't justify ranking the Wildcats higher than third without ignoring half of their season.
Now what?
Michigan still looks like #1 overall but they looked like complete crap today.
Ohio State looked great today but looked like complete crap against UMD and PU.
Iowa has generally looked good, but they are 0-4 against B1G bowl teams.
Northwestern keeps managing to win ugly but they barely beat RU, barely beat IL, and had a horrible OOC.
Wisconsin has looked good at times but just got blown out in the Axe game.
This is getting harder rather than easier.
I believe NW is suffering from the same problem PSU had in 2016. Voters were late to recognize a shift that had occured in the middle of the season and teams that were not good early got better during the season.
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Good golly
1. Ohio State: Well, for this week at least. Not sure there was actual defensive improvement, but the offense has been at ludicrous speed the past two weeks. They finally got their running game figured out, and Haskins is seeing everything. But Northwestern isn't going to be an easy task - they are much more comfortable playing back in zone and making the Bucks earn every inch.
2. Michigan: Many times you're the bear, but not always. Also, this team has not traveled well this year.
3. Northwestern: Off to Indy for the Cats. The Buckeyes probably aren't who they were expecting, but it's who they've got, and probably a better matchup for them if they can slow things down.
4. Penn State: Not the season they hoped for, but overall hardly a bad year.
5. Iowa: Four losses this year by a total of 21 points. They were strong, just couldn't quite get the breaks they needed.
6. Purdue: Got themselves into a bowl game after some early losses, and have rounded into a strong team.
7. Nebraska: Sort of Purdue light, need to get the defense sorted out, but have also rounded into a good team.
8. Minnesota: I'm struggling with where to put these teams, but they certainly looked the part against Wisconsin.
9. Wisconsin: They have fallen into a hole, which is tough to figure out because they still run the ball like Wisconsin. Everything else, not so much.
10. Michigan State: Not a season resume ranking, but a right now this team can't score against 11 guys from this board ranking.
11. Maryland: The most bipolar team on this list - either pretty good or very bad depending on the day.
12. Indiana: Never quite had enough this year.
13. Illinois: Well, not completely terrible
14. Rutgers: Completely terrible
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Saw this on another board. Thought it was interesting but not sure how meaningful it is.
Iowa... lost 4 games by 23 points
Ohio St….lost 1 game by 29 points
Michigan lost 2 games by 30 points
Northwestern lost 4 games by 32 points
Penn St lost lost 3 games by 40 points
Michigan St lost 5 games by 50 points
Purdue lost 6 games by 52 points
Wisconsin lost 5 games by 76 points
Indiana lost 7 games by 93 points
Nebraska lost 8 games by 98 points
Minnesota lost 6 games by 121 points
Maryland lost 7 games by 124 points
Illinois lost 8 games by 224 points
Rutgers lost 11 games by 243 points
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Saw this on another board. Thought it was interesting but not sure how meaningful it is.
Iowa... lost 4 games by 23 points
Ohio St….lost 1 game by 29 points
Michigan lost 2 games by 30 points
Northwestern lost 4 games by 32 points
Penn St lost lost 3 games by 40 points
Michigan St lost 5 games by 50 points
Purdue lost 6 games by 52 points
Wisconsin lost 5 games by 76 points
Indiana lost 7 games by 93 points
Nebraska lost 8 games by 98 points
Minnesota lost 6 games by 121 points
Maryland lost 7 games by 124 points
Illinois lost 8 games by 224 points
Rutgers lost 11 games by 243 points
I have to assume it’s from Kirk Ferentz’s agent. ;)
It tells me that when Iowa was dealt the perfect hand of a crossover schedule they still couldn’t close the deal.
I don’t know that the data says much. It was an odd B1G year. When the wheels fell of for teams, they really fell off in games, even for the likes of OSU, Michigan, and others.
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The Top 5 seems pretty easy to line up if you account for body of work and results you would expect on a neutral field next week. Every team appears to have a major head scratcher result:
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Northwestern - debated 3 or 4 here. Making it to Indy but the resume is REALLY weak. Lost to Michigan H2H at home + Akron + Duke losses + near disaster against Rutgers.
4. Penn State
5. Iowa
6. Nebraska
7. Purdue
8. Maryland
9. Michigan State (might be #1 D + #14 O = 8 or 9 overall)
10. Minnesota
11. Wisconsin
12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Northwestern
4. Penn State
5. Iowa
6. Wisconsin
7. Purdue
8. Michigan State
9. Nebraska
10. Maryland
11. Indiana
12. Minnesota
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
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1 OSU
2 NWest.
3 Michigan
4 Iowa
5 PSU
6 Purdue
7 UW
8 Minn
9 MSU
10 MD
11 Nebr
12 Indy
13 Ill
14 Rut
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Once again I really don't feel like I can do rankings as yesterday was the first round of games I've seen since October.
What I did see makes me question if UW could even beat Rutger at this time. The Badgers looked horrible yesterday and I see no way forward given the circumstances right now. They are a beaten-down team.
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What I did see makes me question if UW could even beat Rutger at this time. The Badgers looked horrible yesterday and I see no way forward given the circumstances right now. They are a beaten-down team.
Statistically the Badgers did well against Minnesota, but not in turnovers. Hornibrook should have sat out. When the starting QB is having a bad day, I don't understand the reluctance of coaches to bring in the backup, even if only for a couple series.
The Badgers were spiraling down all year to a degree. Maybe next year.
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1 Buckeyes
2 Wolverines
3 Wildcats
4 Nittany Lions
5 Spartans
6 Hawkeyes
7 Badgers
8 Boilermakers
9 Cornhuskers
10 Terrapins
11 Golden Gophers
12 Hoosiers
13 Fighting Illini
14 Scarlet Knights
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Northwestern
4. Penn State
5. Iowa
6. Wisconsin
7. Purdue
8. Michigan State
9. Nebraska
10. Maryland
11. Indiana
12. Minnesota
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Northwestern
4. Penn State
5. Iowa
6. Purdue
7. Wisconsin
8. Michigan State
9. Nebraska
10. Maryland
11. Minnesota
12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
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Last week in parenthesis...
- OHIO STATE (3) - "shakiest 10-1 since 2015 MSU, and that team knocked off OSU, so you never know what can happen on a given week" - me, last week
- MICHIGAN (1) - derp
- NORTHWESTERN (2) - did enough, but will need much more next week to get to Pasadena
- PENN STATE (4) - defense finishing the year strong
- IOWA (8) - no idea what to do with the middle section, but Iowa seems to have easily the highest ceiling of the bunch
- WISCONSIN (5) - one winning streak broke over the weekend, just not the one people expected
- MICHIGAN STATE (6) - first double digit offensive explosion in three weeks, while defense moved up to #2 nationally in S&P+
- PURDUE (7) - rivalry win, bowl bid secured
- MINNESOTA (12) - thought it was makeup on a pig, but the DC change seems to have salvaged their season
- NEBRASKA (9) - Iowa did their best to get Nebraska back into it, but Huskers with just not quite enough defense yet
- INDIANA (10) - fourth 7 loss season in the last 5 years, seems to be static
- MARYLAND (11) - did not expect that after the offense showed so much life the previous week
- ILLINOIS (13) - defense played unexpectedly well
- RUTGERS (14) - oh so close
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I wish UNL had another crack at Purdue and NW.... very different team this last half of the year. And they should have won both Purdue and NW when they were still learning the system/struggle to "buy in".
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Well, that was an interesting weekend...
(1) Ohio State. Augh.
(2) Michigan: the dream is dead.
(3) Penn State: on a neutral field.
(4) Northwestern, I guess? Remember when mediocre Wisconsin got into the championship game because Penn State and Ohio State were both on post-season bans? This is kind of like that.
(5) Iowa, probably.
(6) Michigan State: defense wins...mediocrity?
(7) Nebraska: trajectory.
(8) Purdue: maybe. Going bowling!
(9) Wisconsin: talk about going out with a whimper. Can they just have the bowl practices without a bowl game? No one needs to see that.
(10) Maryland: weird season.
(11) Indiana: competitive, sometimes.
(12) Minnesota: sure smacked the Badgers around.
(13) Illinois: bad.
(14) Rutgers: bad.
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Well, that was an interesting weekend...
(4) Northwestern, I guess? Remember when mediocre Wisconsin got into the championship game because Penn State and Ohio State were both on post-season bans? This is kind of like that.
I mean Northwestern did still win the division, really by 4 games if you count tiebreakers, so I don't think that really compares. They clearly earned it.
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1. (2) Ohio State: Where was this team all year?
2. (1) Michigan: That game will sting Michigan fans for a number of years. Injuries hurt a lot, but this Ohio State team shouldn't have been good enough to score that many points vs. their defense.
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3. (3) Northwestern: 8-1 in Big Ten play. Underdogs this week, but that is nothing new for them.
4. (4) Penn State: Their ranking this week will be difference of whether in a New Years 6 Bowl or not. With PAC-12 champ likely being outside top 12, they will need to be at 11 for NY6 bowl. If not, likely going to Citrus Bowl. Not a bad performance in what feels like it was a rebuilding year for the Loins.
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5. (8) Iowa: Have kept them lower most of the season because of their loses to teams just above, but this team has beat teams it should and lost in close games to teams it lost too. Flip a thing or two and Iowa would be going to Indianapolis.
6. (5) Michigan State: Where do you rank this team? They seemed to lose almost all ability to score the last few weeks and were close to losing to Rutgers last week. They still have a win vs. Penn State though and have been in every game save the Michigan one.
7. (11) Minnesota: For the first time in 15 years, they have the greatest trophy in college sports.
8. (6) Wisconsin: Still finished with wins at Iowa and at Purdue, but a big disappointment for a season.
9. (7)Purdue: In a back and forth season, they took the Old Oak and Bucket and are going bowling. Can't believe I actually have them 2 spots lower this week, but more a matter of everyone being close and leaning on others more now.
10. (9) Nebraska: Would bet Nebraska over most the teams above in a rematch, but lost enough of the games I don't like moving up. If had beat Iowa this week, would have jumped several places. Future is bright though.
11. (12) Indiana: Not going to a bowl. Giving them a slight edge over Maryland because of head to head win.
12. (10) Maryland: Team showed lots of potential with a win over Texas and being so close vs. Ohio State. Program will be fine.
13. (13) Illinois: One of the most underachieving programs over last decade. Some signs of life this year. Hopefully build on it.
14. (14) Rutgers: I maintain what I have been saying. This is an improved program over what it was, but schedule worked out very bad for them (toughest games started just when they were starting to figure things out a little).
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I mean Northwestern did still win the division, really by 4 games if you count tiebreakers, so I don't think that really compares. They clearly earned it.
Yes, they earned it, and they aren't at all inspiring. That's how this is similar. The West just isn't very good this year.
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It strikes me that these rankings are pretty similar to the preseason notions about the teams and ranking.
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It strikes me that these rankings are pretty similar to the preseason notions about the teams and ranking.
Somewhat. I think among many, many things I got wrong, I was one of the few correctly high on Northwestern this year. I think if you told anyone Wisconsin and MSU would be #6 and #7, most would guess that was their final AP ranking, not Big Ten power ranking.
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Yup.
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Uh
Yes, they earned it, and they aren't at all inspiring. That's how this is similar. The West just isn't very good this year.
For the record, the East and West were pretty even in cross-division games this year.
Going into the CCG the East holds a 1 game advantage 11-10 over the West.
If OSU wins the CCG, then I guess you can still argue that the East is better. But if NW wins...
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I think it's pretty clear that the East is more top heavy, but the West is far deeper. Which one is "tougher" depends on what kind of team you are. If you are a CFP contender type, you'd rather be in the West, where there are no other teams that should be at your level; if you are a team just trying to get bowl eligible, it's probably easier in the East, where you get more "should win" type games.
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I wish UNL had another crack at Purdue and NW.... very different team this last half of the year. And they should have won both Purdue and NW when they were still learning the system/struggle to "buy in".
I wish the Gophers had another crack at all the games prior to the DC getting fired things were a lot different with the same players after he was let go
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Penn State
4. Northwestern
5. Iowa
6. Wisconsin
7. Michigan State
8. Purdue
9. Minnesota
10. Maryland
11. Nebraska
12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
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I wish the Gophers had another crack at all the games prior to the DC getting fired things were a lot different with the same players after he was let go
never fear fellas
we'll all get another crack starting next September
only one crack per season
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Assessing the top-3 based on common opponents and H2H:
- H2H: Ohio State is much better than Michigan, Michigan slightly better than Northwestern.
- vs Penn State: Michigan is much better than Ohio State.
- vs Wisconsin: Michigan is much better than Northwestern.
- vs Michigan State: Ohio State, then Michigan, then Northwestern.
- vs Purdue: Northwestern is much better than Ohio State.
- vs Nebraska: Michigan is much better than Ohio State, Ohio State slightly better than Northwestern.
- vs Maryland: Michigan is much better than Ohio State.
- vs Minnesota: Ohio State is slightly better than Northwestern (might be a wash with HFA).
- vs Indiana: Ohio State is better than Michigan.
- vs Rutgers: Ohio State is slightly better than Michigan, Michigan much better than Northwestern.
Northwestern loses every comparison except Purdue. I think they are a distant third at best. Even if they win the CG they'll still be no better than third in my rankings because they can't make up that much ground in one game.
Comparing just the Buckeyes and Wolverines for the top two spots:
- Ohio State has a big advantage in the H2H and smaller advantages in the games against MSU, IU, and RU.
- Michigan has big advantages in the games against Penn State, Nebraska, and Maryland.
I honestly see Ohio State/Michigan as being very close. It obviously didn't look like it on Saturday but I don't like relying too much on just one game. If we relied only on Ohio State's game against Purdue the Buckeyes would be ranked somewhere around #12.
Ohio State has more advantages (4>3) but other than the H2H they are close where Michigan's three advantages are humongous (34 points better against PSU, 41 points better against UNL, 21 points better against UMD).
Last week, in a different thread (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=6657.0), I said that I would still rank Michigan #1 this week even if Ohio State won THE GAME. I'm still leaning that way, but I honestly didn't see THAT big of a win for Ohio State as a plausible possibility.
Ohio State showed a ceiling on Saturday that none of us knew they had. That ceiling is clearly higher than anything that any other B1G team has shown. That doesn't mean that the Buckeyes have consistently played like #1 (they haven't) or even that they have the highest floor (IMHO, they don't).
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I think it's pretty clear that the East is more top heavy, but the West is far deeper. Which one is "tougher" depends on what kind of team you are. If you are a CFP contender type, you'd rather be in the West, where there are no other teams that should be at your level; if you are a team just trying to get bowl eligible, it's probably easier in the East, where you get more "should win" type games.
Of course, OSU has found out the last 2 years that those middle teams can trip up your chances at the CFP.
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- OHIO STATE (+1) - Well color me impressed, beat Northwestern and it's on to Pasadena, the B1G champ vs. the Pac 12 champ in the Rose, all is as it should be.
- MICHIGAN (-1) - if OSU can get ranked #1 with an embarrassing loss, M can be 2, with an embarrassing loss to a better team.
- PENN STATE (+1) - I think all 3 giants in the East would be favored over the West Champion
- NORTHWESTERN (+3) - Wow, these guys have turned it on in Conference, and just don't lose this week for an amazing year.
- IOWA (--) - I respect a team that can keep it close.
- MICHIGAN STATE (-4)- Is this defense now the Best in the B1G?
- WISCONSIN (-1) - Injuries, injuries, and lost the Axe
- PURDUE (-1) - Let's go Bowling
- MARYLAND (--) - Snake Bit
- MINNESOTA (+3) - Watching those kids run with a 6 foot Axe was kinda scary.
- NEBRASKA (-1) - Hoping this team rebounds next year
- INDIANA (--) - Basketball Season
- ILLINOIS (-1) - at least they have Lovie's Beard
- RUTGERS (--) - they might win a game in the MAC
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The 3rd/4th debate seems to be mostly between NU and PSU so here are their performances against common opponents:
- vs M: PSU lost by 35, NU lost by 3: Big advantage NU
- vs tOSU: PSU lost by 1, NU TBD: TBD
- vs UW: NU won by 14, PSU won by 12: Advantage NU
- vs Iowa: NU won by 4, PSU won by 6: Advantage PSU
- vs MSU: NU won by 10, PSU lost by 4: Advantate NU
- vs ILL: NU won by 8, PSU won by 39: Big advantage PSU
- vs RU: NU won by 3, PSU won by 13: Advantage PSU
Prior to doing this comparison I was planning to vote PSU #3 but I can't see it. Maybe if Ohio State blows out NU in the B1GCG to give PSU a big advantage in the vs tOSU comparison but not now.
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It seems like every team has at least one uncharacteristically good and one uncharacteristically bad game so I am going to try ranking the teams based on their other seven games:
- Michigan: Drop the tOSU loss and the UNL win and you are left with a solid 7-0 team.
- Ohio State: Drop the PU loss and the M win and you are left with a less solid 7-0 team.
- Northwestern: Drop the RU win (NU's worst game) and the M loss (NU's best game) and you are left with an even less solid 7-0 team.
- Penn State: Drop the M loss and the tOSU loss and you are left with a solid 6-1 team.
- Purdue: Drop the MN loss and the tOSU win and you are left with a solid 4-3 team.
- Wisconsin: Drop the MN loss and the Iowa win and you are left with a 4-3 team.
- Iowa: Drop the UW loss and the MD win and you are left with a 4-3 team that still has no wins over B1G bowl teams.
- Nebraska: Drop the Iowa loss (not worst, but worst recent loss), and the MSU win and you are left with a 2-5 team that is trending the right direction.
- Minnesota: Drop the IL loss and the PU win and you still have the UW win and a 2-5 team.
- Michigan State: This is more about trend than dropping the high and low. MSU's offense would be lucky to score 20 points against 10 other posters and I right now.
- Maryland: Drop the IU loss and the tOSU loss (best game) and you are left with a 3-4 team that beat everyone they were supposed to beat.
- Indiana: Drop the MN loss and the MD win and you are left with a 1-6 team.
- Illinois: Dropping their best win (blowout of MN) hurts a LOT more than dropping their worst loss helps.
- Rutgers: No matter how many games you drop they are still terrible.
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I believe NW is suffering from the same problem PSU had in 2016. Voters were late to recognize a shift that had occured in the middle of the season and teams that were not good early got better during the season.
I'll be a lot more convinced by this if the Wildcats win the B1GCG. I acknowledge that they are 7-1 since starting 1-3 and that LOOKS like a team that got better. I'm not convinced because:
- NU's win in game #1 against PU was a pretty good win.
- NU's eight point win over the second worst team in the B1G this week was a VERY weak showing for a team being in the top-3 and it is flat out pathetic for a team ranked #1 as you have the Wildcats.
- NU's three point win over RU was in game #7. That win is, IMHO, worse than any loss to any other B1G team.
- NU's 10 point win over MN in the penultimate week of the regular season was a pretty weak showing (looks better after MN's win over UW).
I see a definitive shift, for example, with Nebraska:
- 0-5 in first five games with non-competitive losses to good teams and losses to bad teams.
- 4-3 in last seven games with blowout wins over bad teams, a win over a decent MSU, and competitive losses to NU, tOSU, and IA.
I don't see that kind of definitive shift wrt NU. Maybe it is there, but I'll have to see it proven in Indy.
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Results posted, votes through me (15 voters).
Some much movement this week:
- Ohio State was up one, passing Michigan.
- Michigan was down one, passed by Ohio State.
- Iowa was up one, passing Wisconsin.
- Wisconsin was down 1.5, passed by Iowa and tied by Purdue.
- Purdue was up 1.5, passing MSU and tying Wisconsin.
- Michigan State was down one, passed by Purdue.
- Minnesota was up one, passing Maryland.
- Maryland was down one, passed by Minnesota.
Non-contiguous votes:
- HailHailMSP had UW #11, nobody else had them lower than ninth.
If you look at the Schedule/Performance chart, these are all of the losses by higher ranked teams:
- #1 Ohio State lost at #6/7 Purdue by 29.
- #4 Penn State lost at home to #8 MSU by 4.
- #5 Iowa lost at #6/7 Purdue by two.
- #5 Iowa lost at home to #6/7 Wisconsin by 11.
- #6/7 Purdue lost at home to #6/7 Wisconsin in OT.
- #6/7 Purdue lost at #8 MSU by 10.
- #6/7 Wisconsin lost at home to #10 Minnesota by 22.
- #8 Michigan State lost at #9 Nebraska by three.
- #10 Minnesota lost at #11 Maryland by 29.
- #10 Minnesota lost at #13 Illinois by 24.
- #11 Maryland lost at #12 Indiana by two.
The number of "upsets" is not surprising but what is surprising is that a lot of them were decisive.
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Massey composite rankings (104 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...
- Alabama (1)
- Clemson (2)
- Georgia (3)
- Notre Dame (4)
- Oklahoma (6)
- OHIO STATE (7)
- MICHIGAN (5)
- Central Florida (9)
- LSU (8)
- PENN STATE (12)
- Florida (15)
- Washington State (10)
- Mississippi State (13)
- Missouri (16)
- Washington (20)
- Kentucky (19)
- Texas A&M (18)
- Utah (14)
- West Virginia (11)
- Boise State (22)
- Texas (17)
- Fresno State (21)
- Syracuse (-)
- IOWA (23)
- Auburn (25)
- 33. Northwestern (26)
- 35. Michigan State (35)
- 40. Purdue (46)
- 46. Wisconsin (38)
- 59. Minnesota (74)
- 68. Maryland (60)
- 71. Indiana (63)
- 77. Nebraska (76)
- 102. Illinois (102)
- 117. Rutgers (117)