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Topic: B1G-E Race

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medinabuckeye1

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B1G-E Race
« on: August 15, 2023, 10:43:04 AM »
Looking at the AP Poll there are three B1G-E teams in the top-7 nationally and no other B1G-E teams even getting votes so it appears to be a three-team race. 

HFA washes out as the games among the big three are:

  • Penn State at Ohio State on 10/21
  • Michigan at Penn State on 11/11
  • Ohio State at Michigan on 11/25
Here are the B1G-W opponents of the three:
  • M visits UNL and MN, hosts PU
  • tOSU visits UW and PU, hosts MN
  • PSU visits IL and NU, hosts IA

I see that as a disadvantage for the Buckeyes because I think that visiting Camp Randall is the toughest possible crossover and tOSU drew it. OTOH, IF the big three all go 11-1, then Ohio State's tougher B1G-W slate flips from a disadvantage to an advantage:

In the event that tOSU, PSU, and M all go 11-1, the decisive tiebreaker is the cumulative records of their B1G-W opponents. Michigan shares two with tOSU (MN and PU) so the Wolverines can't win that tie unless UNL finishes better than UW. For Penn State I think that having NU on the slate probably kills them.
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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G-E Race
« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2023, 11:11:05 AM »
And they can only be 11-1 together if they beat each other and sweep the west ...

Anyone have a good review of Wisconsin?  Are they about correctly ranked?
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847badgerfan

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Re: B1G-E Race
« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2023, 11:18:05 AM »
I think there are still too many unknowns for the Badgers to be ranked at this point.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G-E Race
« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2023, 11:21:07 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 15, 2023, 11:11:05 AM
And they can only be 11-1 together if they beat each other and sweep the west ...
Yes, them all going 1-1 against each other and beating everyone else is the only way they can all end up 11-1.  
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 15, 2023, 11:11:05 AM
Anyone have a good review of Wisconsin?  Are they about correctly ranked?
I *THINK* they will be very good this year and their ranking may be a touch low.  However, with a new coaching staff there is obviously some guessing going on here.  Also, I do think that they have a bit of a ceiling because they just don't have the depth that comes with consistently recruiting at a VERY high level like tOSU and to a somewhat lesser extent M and PSU.  

I think that they WILL win the West and I give them close to a 50/50 shot against tOSU in Camp Randall and against a team recovering from a tough, physical game against PSU.  

Assuming they get to Indy and face M/tOSU/PSU, they'll be an underdog but I would guess that it will be in the "it could happen" range of 7-14 points not some "hope and pray" 28 point affair.  
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Mdot21

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Re: B1G-E Race
« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2023, 11:07:52 AM »
easily the most interesting race in the P5. B1G East is loaded and the best conference in the sport imo (especially if we could kick Rutgers out). Problem with the B1G is the west is complete and utter garbage unless Fickell can turn Wisconsin around majorly in Year 1.
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G-E Race
« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2023, 09:44:20 PM »
https://www.si.com/college/nebraska/football/predicting-every-big-ten-teams-week-to-week-result

How will the season play out in the Big Ten? Kaleb Henry makes his predictions for every game.
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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G-E Race
« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2023, 08:50:04 AM »
My prediction:

Ohio State 11-1 losing to Wisconsin
Michigan 10-2 losing to PSU and OSU
PSU - 10-2 losing to OSU and Indiana

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FearlessF

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Re: B1G-E Race
« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2023, 08:54:36 AM »
My prediction:
Ohio State 10-2 losing to PSU & M
Michigan 12-0 
PSU - 10-1 losing to M
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G-E Race
« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2023, 09:10:39 AM »
Seriously cockamamie CFP scenario:

  • M, PSU, and tOSU split with each other and win all the rest of their games to each finish 11-1.
  • Other than their losses to Ohio State, Notre Dame and Wisconsin both win all the rest of their games to finish 11-1.
  • Ohio State wins the B1G-E tie based on cumulative record of B1G-W opponents and goes to Indy where they lose to Wisconsin. 
The B1G and Notre Dame would thus provide the Committee with the following CFP contenders (sorted by record):
  • 12-1 B1G Champion Wisconsin. Split with tOSU, losing at home and winning in Indy.
  • 11-1 Michigan. Split with tOSU/PSU.
  • 11-1 Penn State. Split with tOSU/M.
  • 11-1 Notre Dame. Lost at home to tOSU.
  • 11-2 Ohio State. Played a MUCH tougher schedule than the four teams above: Split with Wisconsin, split with M/PSU, beat Notre Dame. 
What would the committee do? 

My guess is Wisconsin gets the first available spot because they are the only league Champion in the mix and they have the best record. Also, their SoS is at least comparable to all the others except tOSU whom the Badgers would have just defeated. 

After that it gets tricky. How do you differentiate between PSU and Michigan? What do you do with Notre Dame? Is Ohio State's more difficult schedule enough to make up for their half game worse record as compared to PSU/ND/M?
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847badgerfan

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Re: B1G-E Race
« Reply #9 on: August 17, 2023, 09:20:00 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 17, 2023, 09:10:39 AM
Seriously cockamamie CFP scenario:

  • M, PSU, and tOSU split with each other and win all the rest of their games to each finish 11-1.
  • Other than their losses to Ohio State, Notre Dame and Wisconsin both win all the rest of their games to finish 11-1.
  • Ohio State wins the B1G-E tie based on cumulative record of B1G-W opponents and goes to Indy where they lose to Wisconsin.
The B1G and Notre Dame would thus provide the Committee with the following CFP contenders (sorted by record):
  • 12-1 B1G Champion Wisconsin. Split with tOSU, losing at home and winning in Indy.
  • 11-1 Michigan. Split with tOSU/PSU.
  • 11-1 Penn State. Split with tOSU/M.
  • 11-1 Notre Dame. Lost at home to tOSU.
  • 11-2 Ohio State. Played a MUCH tougher schedule than the four teams above: Split with Wisconsin, split with M/PSU, beat Notre Dame.
What would the committee do?

My guess is Wisconsin gets the first available spot because they are the only league Champion in the mix and they have the best record. Also, their SoS is at least comparable to all the others except tOSU whom the Badgers would have just defeated.

After that it gets tricky. How do you differentiate between PSU and Michigan? What do you do with Notre Dame? Is Ohio State's more difficult schedule enough to make up for their half game worse record as compared to PSU/ND/M?

A few things come to mind.
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Mdot21

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Re: B1G-E Race
« Reply #10 on: August 17, 2023, 10:35:27 AM »
not making any predictions on the east race. having said that, I'll believe Franklin beats Harbaugh and Day in the same year when I actually see it. Day has flawless victory'd Franklin's heart out mortal kombat style 4 or 5 years in a row, and with the exception of the COVID disaster year (doesn't count imo) and that year Saquon Barkley went absolutely nuts on everyone- Jeem has pretty much been Franklin's daddy and has thrown Franklin them hands and some absolute fkn smackdowns. 
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G-E Race
« Reply #11 on: August 17, 2023, 02:37:38 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 16, 2023, 11:07:52 AM
easily the most interesting race in the P5. B1G East is loaded and the best conference in the sport imo (especially if we could kick Rutgers out). Problem with the B1G is the west is complete and utter garbage unless Fickell can turn Wisconsin around majorly in Year 1.
Wow,  just because the west division doesn't have any teams that can go 11-1,  it is now considered complete and utter garbage?

I guess after what the West did in 2022,  it's hard to argue that point,  but just remember,  Mich is just a couple years away from being complete and utter garbage too. Mich was just 2-4 in 2020 before they turned things around in 2021.   Things can turn around quickly sometimes.
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Mdot21

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Re: B1G-E Race
« Reply #12 on: August 17, 2023, 03:08:41 PM »
Quote from: LittlePig on August 17, 2023, 02:37:38 PM
Wow,  just because the west division doesn't have any teams that can go 11-1,  it is now considered complete and utter garbage?

I guess after what the West did in 2022,  it's hard to argue that point,  but just remember,  Mich is just a couple years away from being complete and utter garbage too. Mich was just 2-4 in 2020 before they turned things around in 2021.  Things can turn around quickly sometimes.
West winner has basically been murdered in the B1G CCG by the East winner every year with the exception of maybe once or twice since the divisions changed and went East/West.

I don't know man, not really seeing it in the West this year.

The West winner from last year Purdue is kinda in shambles with all the personnel losses and the coaching staff peace-ing out- if Brohm was still there I'd believe in them more- think he's one of the best coaches in the sport. He gone. Illinois lost a ton after having the best season they've had in the last 25 years and the best season they will probably ever have in the next 25 years- and they still didn't win the West last year. Northwestern is like dead. Stick a fork in them. Iowa is going through a bit of a scandal and well Brian Ferentz is still the OC which means that offense is still going to suck. 

West fortunes all hinge on turnaround year one jobs in Luke Fickell at Wisconsin and Matt Rhule at Nebraska. I think Wisconsin has the potential to be really good, but that's not a given, especially in year 1. Nebraska is probably going to suck for a minute or two before Rhule actually gets that thing turned around imo.
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847badgerfan

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Re: B1G-E Race
« Reply #13 on: August 17, 2023, 03:34:18 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on August 17, 2023, 03:08:41 PM
West winner has basically been murdered in the B1G CCG by the East winner every year with the exception of maybe once or twice since the divisions changed and went East/West.

Wisconsin and Iowa have come closest to winning the game.

Wisconsin was also murdered the worst when Jerri mailed it in. 59-0.

I think Devin Smith just scored again, actually.
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