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Topic: B1G Divisional races after week 11

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medinabuckeye1

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B1G Divisional races after week 11
« on: November 12, 2022, 09:56:10 PM »
The East now will officially be determined by THE GAME. The M/IL and tOSU/UMD games are irrelevant as to who goes to Indy. 

The West is a mess and nobody controls their own destiny. 

The only things we know for sure are:

  • The winner will be at least 5-4 (because MN and Iowa play next weekend and one of them will pick up their fifth win).
  • Due to #2, Nebraska and Northwestern are officially mathematically eliminated. 
The next most certain thing is that Wisconsin cannot make it to Indy without lots of unlikely help.

It is extremely likely that at least one of the three-loss teams will win out. If we treat that as an assumption then Wisconsin and the Iowa/Minnesota loser are out. 

Here are the 4-3 teams, what they have left, and their H2H results against other teams that could tie them at 6-3:
  • Purdue, vsNU, atIU: Beat IL and MN, lost to IA
  • Illinois, atM, atNU: Beat IA and MN, lost to PU
  • Iowa, atMN, vsUNL: Beat PU, lost to IL
  • Minnesota, vsIA, atUW: Lost to PU and IL

In the event of a three way tie in which each of the teams are 1-1 against the other two the next tiebreaker is divisional record. Here are their divisional records assuming they win out:
  • 5-1 Illinois
  • 5-1 Iowa
  • 4-2 Purdue
  • 4-2 Minnesota 

None of them control their own destiny because each could miss even if they win out. Here is at least one way each could miss the CG even at 6-3:
  • Purdue would lose a tie with Iowa.
  • Illinois would lose a tie with Purdue.
  • Iowa would lose a tie with Illinois. 
  • Minnesota would lose any tie.

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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 11
« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2022, 10:07:36 PM »
I'm fairly confident Purdue wins out and Illinois doesn't. 

So the wildcard is whether or not the Iowa-Minnesota winner can win again the following week. 
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 11
« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2022, 10:17:10 PM »
Purdue has head to head over Minnesooota, but not Iowa
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 11
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2022, 10:19:50 PM »
If I had to guess at the odds of each Big Ten West team winning out, going 2-0 in their last 2 games, I would guess

ILL 4%
Purdue 64%
IOWA 37%
MINN 25%
WISC 37%

Therefore  I would guess the odds of each team winning the division and going to the CCG as

Purdue 40%
Iowa  33%
Minn 22%
ILL 5%
Wisc <1%

In other words:  Chaos!
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 11
« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2022, 10:22:13 PM »
Purdue only 64%???

Northwestern home and @ Indiana?
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 11
« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2022, 10:33:45 PM »
Purdue, unless Iowa wins out. 
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LittlePig

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 11
« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2022, 10:38:17 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on November 12, 2022, 10:22:13 PM
Purdue only 64%???

Northwestern home and @ Indiana?
Well, Purdue has not been the most consistent team this season and Indiana did find a way to beat Illinois this season. Still, giving Purdue a 64% chance to win out is much higher than I gave any other team in the West.
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 11
« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2022, 10:56:58 PM »
well we all know Northwestern's struggles since returning from Ireland

and the Hoosiers have lost their last 7
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 11
« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2022, 11:03:39 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 12, 2022, 10:07:36 PM
I'm fairly confident Purdue wins out and Illinois doesn't.
If we assume those two things then there are three possibilities:
  • Purdue wins outright, Purdue to CG.
  • Purdue ties Minnesota, Purdue to CG.
  • Purdue ties Iowa, Iowa to CG.

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Temp430

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 11
« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2022, 06:51:56 AM »
Illinois loses next Saturday, Iowa and Purdue win out. Iowa is the Big Ten West co-champion and heads to Indy again.
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 11
« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2022, 08:49:55 AM »
to get pounded by Michigan, AGAIN
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847badgerfan

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 11
« Reply #11 on: November 13, 2022, 09:01:56 AM »
It's great that the "reward" for winning the West is now a sentence to a beatdown.
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FearlessF

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 11
« Reply #12 on: November 13, 2022, 09:10:35 AM »
That's on the West

and the Huskers are certainly part of the problem
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847badgerfan

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 11
« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2022, 09:39:08 AM »
So are the Badgers.
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