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Deeper dive on the B1G-W:If Illinois beats Purdue that pretty much clinches it for them because they'd win literally any tie and they'd only need to beat Northwestern to guarantee at least a tie for the title. 

What if Illinois loses to Purdue?
In that case Illinois drops into a tie with Purdue the Iowa/Wisconsin winner, and Minnesota (assuming they beat Northwestern). Worse, the following week the Illini travel to Ann Arbor and if they couldn’t beat Michigan State at home then they probably can't beat Michigan on the road.

Stretch runs for the B1G-W contenders:

• 4-2 Illinois: vsPU, atM, atNU
• 3-3 Purdue: atIL, vsNU, atIU
• 3-3 Minnesota: vsNU, vsIA, atUW
• 3-3 Wisconsin: atIA, atUNL, vsMN
• 3-3 Iowa:  vsUW, atMN, vsUNL

I'm assuming that four loss teams are out thus I've made the following assumptions:

• PU > IL
• PU, MN, UW, and IA are each only in if they win out.

H2H . . . 2H:

• Illinois lost to PU, beat everyone else 
• Purdue beat IL and MN, lost to UW and IA
• Minnesota lost to IL and PU
• Wisconsin/Iowa beat PU, lost to IL

The prospect of who wins the west seems very much in doubt now, compared to a week ago. Nobody, but the Michigan State football team and staff had a rational thought MSU would beat Illinois yesterday. Most of us did not anticipate Iowa would defeat Purdue, either. Against common opponents Purdue is 2-2, and Illinois is 4-0. Based on past results with common opponents Illinois should come through this coming Saturday.

After humiliating themselves earlier in the season, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin should not have to worry excessively about being humiliated in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Who would win the tiebreaker if that happens? 

PSU at 10-2 might well make an NY6 bowl, I think, maybe the Sugar vs LSU or somesuch?

PSU at 10-2 might well make an NY6 bowl, I think, maybe the Sugar vs LSU or somesuch?

Yes, maybe but this is not the best year for a 10-2 PSU to get into a NY6 bowl just because of how the tie-ins work.

The CFP bowls this year are the Peach and Fiesta. 

The Rose Bowl must take the best Big Ten and Pac teams not in the CFP.  So the Rose is a possibility for PSU if OSU and Mich both make it into the CFP.

The Sugar must take the best teams in the SEC and Big 12 not in the CFP. So PSU has no chance at the Sugar.

The Orange must take the best team in the ACC not in the CFP for one of its teams.  The other team is the highest ranked remaining team from the SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame after the CFP, Rose and Sugar bowls are filled first.  So the Orange is a possibility for PSU.  The SEC might get Ga and Tenn into the CFP.  LSU might get the Sugar.  Which still leaves Bama and Ole Miss to compete with PSU for the Orange.

The cotton must take the highest ranked G5 champion and then the highest ranked at-large.  So again PSU is competing with Bama or Ole Miss plus maybe Oregon or. UCLA for the last spot in the Cotton.

My guess 10-2 PSU is left out of the NY6.  But there is a chance at the Rose, Orange or Cotton bowls if things break right.

Should Purdue beat Illinois Saturday (very possible) and Michigan beat Illinois next week (likely), the winner of the Wisconsin @Iowa game controls their own destiny.  Imagine Iowa back in Indianapolis...does Brian Ferentz get a raise?

If OSU wins the east, I would like to see ILL win the West.  Iowa and Wisc have already lost badly to OSU.

If Mich wins the East, then Mich probably already beat ILL.  Iowa also has already lost to Mich,  so I would rather see Purdue or Wisc play Mich. 

Now if ILL upsets Mich in 2 weeks and then Mich beats OSU to win the East, then I would like Mich to play ILL again to get a chance to avenge their one loss.