CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 05, 2022, 10:20:29 PM
-
Assuming Michigan holds their lead the East is down to just them and the Buckeyes. The B1G-E rep in Indy will almost certainly be the winner of THE GAME. The only way that would not happen is if one of them won both before that then lost while the other lost both before that then won.
The B1G-W is now a complete mess. Illinois still has the best position because they have H2H wins over all but PU and NU both of whom they haven't yet played.
If Illinois beats Purdue that effectively clinches it for them because they would win any tie but if Purdue wins then everyone with three losses has at least a chance.
-
Deeper dive on the B1G-W:If Illinois beats Purdue that pretty much clinches it for them because they'd win literally any tie and they'd only need to beat Northwestern to guarantee at least a tie for the title.
What if Illinois loses to Purdue?
In that case Illinois drops into a tie with Purdue the Iowa/Wisconsin winner, and Minnesota (assuming they beat Northwestern). Worse, the following week the Illini travel to Ann Arbor and if they couldn’t beat Michigan State at home then they probably can't beat Michigan on the road.
Stretch runs for the B1G-W contenders:
- 4-2 Illinois: vsPU, atM, atNU
- 3-3 Purdue: atIL, vsNU, atIU
- 3-3 Minnesota: vsNU, vsIA, atUW
- 3-3 Wisconsin: atIA, atUNL, vsMN
- 3-3 Iowa: vsUW, atMN, vsUNL
I'm assuming that four loss teams are out thus I've made the following assumptions:
- PU > IL
- PU, MN, UW, and IA are each only in if they win out.
H2H . . . 2H:
- Illinois lost to PU, beat everyone else
- Purdue beat IL and MN, lost to UW and IA
- Minnesota lost to IL and PU
- Wisconsin/Iowa beat PU, lost to IL
-
The ILL- Mich game is shaping up to potentially be a pretty meaningless game as far as division championships go. If Mich, OSU and ILL all win next week, then the Mich-ILL game won't matter in the race for the East. I guess a ILL win could clinch the West for ILL though, although if they lose, ILL could stilll clinch the following week against NW. So no pressure on either side in theory.
Of course Mich is thinking playoffs and ILL is thinking about what bowl it's going to, so there is plenty of pressure in reality.
-
The prospect of who wins the west seems very much in doubt now, compared to a week ago. Nobody, but the Michigan State football team and staff had a rational thought MSU would beat Illinois yesterday. Most of us did not anticipate Iowa would defeat Purdue, either. Against common opponents Purdue is 2-2, and Illinois is 4-0. Based on past results with common opponents Illinois should come through this coming Saturday.
(https://i.imgur.com/qYOPOjW.png)
After humiliating themselves earlier in the season, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin should not have to worry excessively about being humiliated in the Big Ten Championship Game.
-
It looks like it is still mathematically possible for all 7 teams in the Big Ten West to finish in a tie at 4-5. It requires...
1-5 NW to win all 3 games against Minn, Pur, ILL
2-4 Neb to beat Iowa, Wisc & lose to Mich
3-3 Pur to beat ILL & lose to NW, Ind
3-3 Minn to beat Iowa & lose to NW, Wisc
3-3 Wisc to beat Minn & lose to Iowa, Neb
3-3 Iowa to beat Wisc & lose to Minn, Neb
4-2 ILL to lose all 3 games to Pur, Mich, NW
Edit. NW would still win the tiebreaker in this scenerio ILL & NW would have 4-2 divsion records. Iowa, Pur, Neb 3-3. Minn, Wisc 2-4
Then NW wins the H2H tiebreaker against ILL
-
Who would win the tiebreaker if that happens?
-
If I had to guess at bowl projections
OSU/Mich winner 13-0 9-0 CFP
OSU/Mich loser - 11-1 8-1 Rose
PSU 10-2 7-2 Citrus
ILL 9-4 6-3 Tampa
Iowa 7-5 5-4 Duke's Mayo's
Wisc 7-5 5-4 Music
PUR 7-5 5-4 arizona
Minn 8-4 5-4 Pinstripe
MSU 6-6 4-5 Detroit
MD 7-5 4-5 some random bowl
Neb 3-9 no bowl
Rur 4-8 no bowl
Ind 3-9 no bowl
NW 1-11 no bowl
-
PSU at 10-2 might well make an NY6 bowl, I think, maybe the Sugar vs LSU or somesuch?
-
Who would win the tiebreaker if that happens?
NW would still win the tiebreaker in this scenerio
ILL & NW would have 4-2 divsion records. Iowa, Pur, Neb 3-3. Minn, Wisc 2-4
Then NW wins the H2H tiebreaker against ILL.
-
PSU at 10-2 might well make an NY6 bowl, I think, maybe the Sugar vs LSU or somesuch?
Yes, maybe but this is not the best year for a 10-2 PSU to get into a NY6 bowl just because of how the tie-ins work.
The CFP bowls this year are the Peach and Fiesta.
The Rose Bowl must take the best Big Ten and Pac teams not in the CFP. So the Rose is a possibility for PSU if OSU and Mich both make it into the CFP.
The Sugar must take the best teams in the SEC and Big 12 not in the CFP. So PSU has no chance at the Sugar.
The Orange must take the best team in the ACC not in the CFP for one of its teams. The other team is the highest ranked remaining team from the SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame after the CFP, Rose and Sugar bowls are filled first. So the Orange is a possibility for PSU. The SEC might get Ga and Tenn into the CFP. LSU might get the Sugar. Which still leaves Bama and Ole Miss to compete with PSU for the Orange.
The cotton must take the highest ranked G5 champion and then the highest ranked at-large. So again PSU is competing with Bama or Ole Miss plus maybe Oregon or. UCLA for the last spot in the Cotton.
My guess 10-2 PSU is left out of the NY6. But there is a chance at the Rose, Orange or Cotton bowls if things break right.
-
I realize this is all click bait, but these guys have PSU in the Cotton of all things.
College Football Bowl Projections for 2022-23 - AthlonSports.com | Expert Predictions, Picks, and Previews (https://athlonsports.com/college-football/bowl-projections-2022)
-
Should Purdue beat Illinois Saturday (very possible) and Michigan beat Illinois next week (likely), the winner of the Wisconsin @Iowa game controls their own destiny. Imagine Iowa back in Indianapolis...does Brian Ferentz get a raise?
-
I'd rather not see UW in Indy. Not this year - they are not ready. Next year, maybe. Not now.
-
If OSU wins the east, I would like to see ILL win the West. Iowa and Wisc have already lost badly to OSU.
If Mich wins the East, then Mich probably already beat ILL. Iowa also has already lost to Mich, so I would rather see Purdue or Wisc play Mich.
Now if ILL upsets Mich in 2 weeks and then Mich beats OSU to win the East, then I would like Mich to play ILL again to get a chance to avenge their one loss.
-
Should Purdue beat Illinois Saturday (very possible) and Michigan beat Illinois next week (likely), the winner of the Wisconsin @Iowa game controls their own destiny. Imagine Iowa back in Indianapolis...does Brian Ferentz get a raise?
Minnesota with its 7th ranked defense in FBS is the problem, at least for Iowa, and its pathetic offense. If your scenario occurred, Minnesota controls Iowa's destiny, if Iowa wins Saturday.
As for your BF comment, if I performed like BF, my dad would have given me a raise with his foot where it belonged. I admire Kirk Ferentz's compassionate unwavering love, which is precisely why nepotism should be out of favor, even though nepotism is favored at Tyson Foods, and at Iowa Football.
-
Now there are four 4-3 teams tied atop the B1G West standings
-
Now there are four 4-3 teams tied atop the B1G West standings
Chaos!
Its blows my mind that Illinois is about to blow this. And it blows my mind that Iowa now has a realistic chance to win the West. Again! But technically Illinois still controls its own destiny if it can beat Mich and NW the next 2 weeks.
But it's the Big Ten West, so probably more upsets are coming in the next 2 weeks. All 4 teams tied for first still have a chance. Heck even Wisconsin is still mathematically alive.
-
Purdue has the easiest remaining two games and holds the tiebreaker over Illinois
Minnesota could lose at Wisconsin
Iowa could lose at Minnesota
Illinois probably loses @ Michigan
-
Illinois definitely loses @ Michigan.
-
But technically Illinois still controls its own destiny if it can beat Mich and NW the next 2 weeks.
They don't because they would lose a tie with Purdue although I think they would only lose a two-way tie with Purdue and would win any other tie.