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Topic: B1G Bowl Slate
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SFBadger96 · « **on:** December 09, 2019, 01:09:54 PM »

Good matchups. A fair amount of punching up in weight class, but all are pretty interesting.

December 27
Pinstripe Bowl (NYC)
Michigan State (6-6) vs. Wake Forest (8-4)
Is the ACC really so bad that a .500 Sparty can hang with an 8-4 Wake? An indication for the B1G about whether Clemson cruised, or had to work for its unbeaten season (Wake was .500 in conference, but was really 5-4 as it beat UNC in a "non-conference" game).

Holiday Bowl (San Diego)
#16 Iowa (9-3) vs. #22 Southern California (8-4)
Really interesting game. SC had some moments this season (including beating Utah and putting a scare in ND in South Bend), but also a head scratching loss to BYU. But this is also nearly a home game for the Trojans, who always seem to play well in California bowls. Iowa has been steady, so this is an interesting B1G vs. P12 matchup that reflects on the old days of the conference rivalry.

December 28
Cotton Bowl (Dallas)
#10 Penn State (10-2) vs. #17 Memphis (12-1)
I feel bad for Penn State; nothing to gain, something to lose. Nonetheless, Memphis has had a great season, and the Cotton Bowl is a big deal.

CFP Semifinal (Glendale, AZ)
#2 Ohio State (13-0) vs. #3 Clemson (13-0)
Slobber knocker. This is what the college football playoff was created to give us. Ohio State earned its 13-0 record against stiff competition. It was always on another level. Clemson cruised through a soft conference, but looked amazing doing it. Great matchup.

December 30
Redbox Bowl (Santa Clara, CA)
Illinois (6-6) vs. Cal (7-5)
Home game for Cal. Geatures two similar feeling teams. Both on the upswing, but how much? Both overshadowed in their conferences and likely to stay that way, but each having a quality season that has their fans excited. Hopefully Cal fans will help fill the seats, because this is a traditional bowl of the reward-the-team for its season variety. A win here will put a nice stamp on that team's surprising season.

January 1
Outback Bowl (Tampa)
#18 Minnesota (10-2) vs. #12 Auburn (9-3)
I cringe a little at this match up, but probably because I still don't give Minnesota enough credit. Auburn beat Oregon at a neutral site, and beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, and its three losses were forgivable and close (LSU, Georgia, and Florida). This is a tough draw for the Gophers, but could really put an exclamation mark on an exciting season in the Twin Cities.

Citrus (Orlando)
#14 Michigan (9-3) vs. #13 Alabama (10-2)
Oof. Congratulations, Michigan, you get Angry Nick Saban. Be serious, how many of you really believe there are 12 teams in the country that would be favored against Alabama on a neutral field? This is a team that lost to the #1 ranked team by five, and lost at its biggest rival (and solid team in its own right) by three in a game that goes on the list of crazy rivalry games. I think Harbaugh is heading for another tough press conference.

Rose Bowl
#8 Wisconsin (10-3) vs. #6 Oregon (11-2)
Reminds me of the old days. Really good game between two really good teams, neither of which earned the next step, but both of which can really play.

January 2
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville)
Indiana (8-4) vs. Tennessee (7-5)
Fun game for Indiana. Interesting gauge for how good each of these teams really is. ES(EC)PN seems to be all-in on Tennessee right now, but it's not really obvious why. Yes, the Volunteers won their last five games, but it wasn't exactly a murderers row. They lost to every good team they played, oh, and BYU and Georgia State.

RestingB!tchFace · « **Reply #1 on:** December 09, 2019, 01:22:26 PM »

I am happy that the Gophers were paired up with Auburn. That or Alabama were the hope. It's going to be a really tough test....because as you mentioned.....Auburn's three losses were by slim margins to top ten teams.

Guess we'll see.

Honestbuckeye · « **Reply #2 on:** December 09, 2019, 02:44:48 PM »

Quote from: SFBadger96 on December 09, 2019, 01:09:54 PM

Good matchups. A fair amount of punching up in weight class, but all are pretty interesting.

December 27
Pinstripe Bowl (NYC)
Michigan State (6-6) vs. Wake Forest (8-4)
Is the ACC really so bad that a .500 Sparty can hang with an 8-4 Wake? An indication for the B1G about whether Clemson cruised, or had to work for its unbeaten season (Wake was .500 in conference, but was really 5-4 as it beat UNC in a "non-conference" game).

Holiday Bowl (San Diego)
#16 Iowa (9-3) vs. #22 Southern California (8-4)
Really interesting game. SC had some moments this season (including beating Utah and putting a scare in ND in South Bend), but also a head scratching loss to BYU. But this is also nearly a home game for the Trojans, who always seem to play well in California bowls. Iowa has been steady, so this is an interesting B1G vs. P12 matchup that reflects on the old days of the conference rivalry.

December 28
Cotton Bowl (Dallas)
#10 Penn State (10-2) vs. #17 Memphis (12-1)
I feel bad for Penn State; nothing to gain, something to lose. Nonetheless, Memphis has had a great season, and the Cotton Bowl is a big deal.

CFP Semifinal (Glendale, AZ)
#2 Ohio State (13-0) vs. #3 Clemson (13-0)
Slobber knocker. This is what the college football playoff was created to give us. Ohio State earned its 13-0 record against stiff competition. It was always on another level. Clemson cruised through a soft conference, but looked amazing doing it. Great matchup.

December 30
Redbox Bowl (Santa Clara, CA)
Illinois (6-6) vs. Cal (7-5)
Home game for Cal. Geatures two similar feeling teams. Both on the upswing, but how much? Both overshadowed in their conferences and likely to stay that way, but each having a quality season that has their fans excited. Hopefully Cal fans will help fill the seats, because this is a traditional bowl of the reward-the-team for its season variety. A win here will put a nice stamp on that team's surprising season.

January 1
Outback Bowl (Tampa)
#18 Minnesota (10-2) vs. #12 Auburn (9-3)
I cringe a little at this match up, but probably because I still don't give Minnesota enough credit. Auburn went to Oregon and won, and beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, and its three losses were forgivable and close (LSU, Georgia, and Florida). This is a tough draw for the Gophers, but could really put an exclamation mark on an exciting season in the Twin Cities.

Citrus (Orlando)
#14 Michigan (9-3) vs. #13 Alabama (10-2)
Oof. Congratulations, Michigan, you get Angry Nick Saban. Be serious, how many of you really believe there are 12 teams in the country that would be favored against Alabama on a neutral field? This is a team that lost to the #1 ranked team by five, and lost at its biggest rival (and solid team in its own right) by three in a game that goes on the list of crazy rivalry games. I think Harbaugh is heading for another tough press conference.

Rose Bowl
#8 Wisconsin (10-3) vs. #6 Oregon (11-2)
Reminds me of the old days. Really good game between two really good teams, neither of which earned the next step, but both of which can really play.

January 2
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville)
Indiana (8-4) vs. Tennessee (7-5)
Fun game for Indiana. Interesting gauge for how good each of these teams really is. ES(EC)PN seems to be all-in on Tennessee right now, but it's not really obvious why. Yes, the Volunteers won their last five games, but it wasn't exactly a murderers row. They lost to every good team they played, oh, and BYU and Georgia State.

Excellent summary. I find the Michigan-Bama matchup intriguing. Yes, Bama lost to the top 5 team in their own house by 5, but they were playing for their playoff lives.

without Tua, and with often debated “ lack of motivation” for a team that might not want to be there ( including the high likelihood that many of their starters boundd for the NFL won’t play) we could see Michigan take them to the shed, and it would not shock me.

NorthernOhioBuckeye · « **Reply #3 on:** December 09, 2019, 03:13:01 PM »

Quote from: SFBadger96 on December 09, 2019, 01:09:54 PM

January 1
Outback Bowl (Tampa)
#18 Minnesota (10-2) vs. #12 Auburn (9-3)
I cringe a little at this match up, but probably because I still don't give Minnesota enough credit. Auburn went to Oregon and won, and beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, and its three losses were forgivable and close (LSU, Georgia, and Florida). This is a tough draw for the Gophers, but could really put an exclamation mark on an exciting season in the Twin Cities.

Just a little correction. Auburn went to Jerry World to play Oregon, supposedly a "neutral site game". However, the point stands that they did beat Oregon.

SFBadger96 · « **Reply #4 on:** December 09, 2019, 03:19:10 PM »

That's a good point--and it absolutely is different than beating Oregon in Autzen. And the broader point, that Auburn is likely very good, remains. :-)

fezzador · « **Reply #5 on:** December 09, 2019, 03:34:33 PM »

Pinstripe Bowl:

WF's four losses are to Louisville in a shootout, got stifled by a good Virginia Tech team, positively steamrolled by Clemson, and lost a heartbreaker in OT to a terrible Syracuse team. They haven't beaten any P5 teams with over 6 wins, and still won't if they get past Sparty. Michigan State has played a far tougher schedule and has a pretty good in against a respectable Indiana, but against the big boys they were just plain dreadful, getting outscored by Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan to the tune of 144-27. That's barely half a field goal per quarter.

MSU is 44th in passing defense. WF is 97th. Sparty enjoys a large advantage here.
MSU is 15th against the run. WF is 73rd. Sparty enjoys a large advantage here.
MSU is 60th in passing offense. WF is 18th. Deacs enjoy a large advantage here.
MSU is 116th in rushing offense. WF is 47th. Deacs enjoy a large advantage here.
MSU is tied for 40th in penalties committed. WF is 4th. Deacs enjoy a large advantage here.
MSU is penalized approx. 54 yards per game, while WF is penalized approx. 33.

Based on these metrics I think WF has to get the edge, as their relative weakness (overall defense) is better than MSU's relative weakness (overall offense). WF is mediocre against the run, but Sparty is nowhere close to competent running the ball. Sparty's strength is run defense, but WF is a pass-first offense and while their secondary is solid, they can still be thrown on. WF's strength is throwing the football and does it much better than MSU. All the pressure is on Lewerke to conduct the offense and all WF needs is one big mistake to put this one away.

Gun-to-my-head prediction: WF gets this one 26-21.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #6 on:** December 09, 2019, 04:59:15 PM »

I think it's a credit to the matchups that I don't see any obvious mismatches there. Memphis is pretty solid I think, and while PSU SHOULD be better, they might not play that way. Bama-Michigan has all kinds of subthemes, as does Auburn-Minnesota.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #7 on:** December 09, 2019, 05:22:08 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 09, 2019, 04:59:15 PM

I think it's a credit to the matchups that I don't see any obvious mismatches there. Memphis is pretty solid I think, and while PSU SHOULD be better, they might not play that way. Bama-Michigan has all kinds of subthemes, as does Auburn-Minnesota.

I agree entirely. If we were doing one of those confidence games I don't have any idea which game I would pick first and I could see any of them going either way.

Pinstripe:
I think MSU wins simply because I think the ACC is so bad that Wake's wouldn't be anywhere close to a bowl if they played in any other P5 league.

Holiday:
SC is so up-and-down that who knows. Given Iowa's record this year we should be able to assume that it will be a close game.

Cotton:
To me this is all about motivation. If PSU shows up crying about being left out of the big dance and overlooks Memphis they'll lose. OTOH, if PSU plays anywhere close to their potential they'll win this in a laugher.

Fiesta:
We all know that Clemson hasn't beaten anyone with a pulse but nobody knows if that is because they can't or just because they haven't had the opportunity. We'll find out.

RedBox:
It is hard to make any prediction involving an Illinois team that:

beat Wisconsin, and
lost to Northwestern

Outback:
IMHO, this is the Cotton Bowl in reverse.

Citrus:
I agree with SFBadger, if Bama plays to their potential there isn't anything Michigan can do to stop them. However, Michigan is a good team and if Bama shows up with half their starters peeking at NFL draft boards and nobody really caring about the Wolverines it could get ugly for the Tide.

Gator:
Indiana has yet another chance to get a name scalp.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #8 on:** December 09, 2019, 05:30:41 PM »

A lot of 8-4 teams have no wins over decent teams. You can schedule 4 pastries OOC in two conferences and then go 4-4 in conference to get to 8-4. The four good teams beat you, but you're 8-4. Tennessee didn't even manage to beat two of its pastries and finished 7-5. They could well be 9-3 and sounding like a good team, but they lost rather badly to the three real teams they played. Often, there really isn't much difference between 6-6 and 9-3 except scheduling. How many teams would have a good record playing A&M's schedule? Not many.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #9 on:** December 09, 2019, 07:10:01 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 09, 2019, 05:30:41 PM

A lot of 8-4 teams have no wins over decent teams. You can schedule 4 pastries OOC in two conferences and then go 4-4 in conference to get to 8-4. The four good teams beat you, but you're 8-4. Tennessee didn't even manage to beat two of its pastries and finished 7-5. They could well be 9-3 and sounding like a good team, but they lost rather badly to the three real teams they played. Often, there really isn't much difference between 6-6 and 9-3 except scheduling. How many teams would have a good record playing A&M's schedule? Not many.

Frankly, most teams in the country would go exactly 7-5 against aTm's schedule. The gap between the best five teams that they played and the worst seven was that big. Here are their 12 opponents ranked using CFP rankings then my guesses:

#1 LSU, lost by 43
#3 Clemson, lost by 14
#5 UGA, lost by 6
#12 Auburn, lost by 8
#13 Bama, lost by 19
3-5/6-6 MissSt, won by 19
3-5/4-8 USCe, won by 24
2-6/4-8 Ole Miss, won by 7
0-8/2-10 Arkansas, won by 4
3-5/4-8 UTSA, won by 31
2-6/3-9 TxSt, won by 34
2-7/4-8 (FCS) Lamar, won by 59

They had a brutal top-5 and lost all of them then a very easy bottom seven and won all of them. It is great that they were close with UGA and Auburn but they were also close with Ole Miss and Ark so what does that mean?

I agree with your larger point. If they had scheduled another pastry instead of Clemson and gotten Vandy instead of UGA they would be 9-3, same team.

MrNubbz · « **Reply #10 on:** December 09, 2019, 07:15:00 PM »

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 09, 2019, 02:44:48 PM

without Tua, and with often debated “ lack of motivation” for a team that might not want to be there ( including the high likelihood that many of their starters boundd for the NFL won’t play) we could see Michigan take them to the shed, and it would not shock me.

Put that thing out - you'll burn your fingers

.Blue might win but it won't be a woodshed.Unless of course Sunday eligible kids bail not risking injury

FearlessF · « **Reply #11 on:** December 09, 2019, 07:46:35 PM »

why would Michigan's Sunday kids be more likely to play than Bama's?

Cincydawg · « **Reply #12 on:** December 09, 2019, 07:50:35 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on December 09, 2019, 07:46:35 PM

why would Michigan's Sunday kids be more likely to play than Bama's?

The notion may be that Bama has more of them, I don't know if that is the case.
Motivation is key in this one.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #13 on:** December 09, 2019, 07:51:08 PM »

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 09, 2019, 02:44:48 PM

we could see Michigan take them to the shed, and it would not shock me.

Anyone taking Alabama behind the shed (2+ scores) would be shocking. It's happened exactly once since 2004.

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Topic: B1G Bowl Slate

SFBadger96

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RestingB!tchFace

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Honestbuckeye

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