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Topic: 90 Years of AP Polls, the most recent 15: 2011-2025

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ManHawk

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Re: 90 Years of AP Polls, the most recent 15: 2011-2025
« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2026, 05:55:05 PM »
Its weird,  I just assumed that since Iowa has won at least 8 games every single year since 2015, and won at least 10 games 4 times since 2015,  that Iowa would do well in this time period.  But I guess they weren't ranked that much.   The classic case of a high floor but with a low ceiling.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 90 Years of AP Polls, the most recent 15: 2011-2025
« Reply #15 on: March 05, 2026, 05:48:49 PM »
Its weird,  I just assumed that since Iowa has won at least 8 games every single year since 2015, and won at least 10 games 4 times since 2015,  that Iowa would do well in this time period.  But I guess they weren't ranked that much.  The classic case of a high floor but with a low ceiling. 
A lot of this is timing and specifically the fact that Iowa can't seem to get out of September without a loss.  For the last 15 years:

2011:
Started RV (#32) but lost to ISU.  Second loss on 10/8, cratered starting with a loss to a horrible MN team on 10/29.  Not ranked at all in 2011.  

2012:
4-8 catastrophe of a season, never even received votes.  

2013:
No votes in preseason due to 4-8 finish prior year.  Lost opener to NIU.  Climbed up to RV on 9/29 then promptly lost two straight and three out of four, no votes in November.  Finished November on a three-game winning streak that resulted in votes in the December polls and lost close to a quality LSU team in the Outback bowl to finish RV (#32).  

2014:
Started RV (#30) and maintained votes for a few weeks but then lost to ISU.  No votes again until mid-October but then promptly lost to Maryland and that was it for 2014.  

2015:
No votes preseason due to 7-6 finish prior year.  Started getting votes in week 2, ranked in week 5 and stayed ranked the rest of the way.  Finished 12-2 and #9.  

2016:
#17 in preseason, first preseason ranking since being #10 in 2010!  Lost to NDST on 9/17 and was not ranked again until #22 at 8-4 in late November and #21 in early December then lost bowl and fell out.  

2017:
Lost back-to-back games to PSU and MSU in late September.  In retrospect that wasn't so bad as they finished #8 and #15 respectively.  Got into the poll at #25 after demolishing Ohio State but turned around and got run out of Camp Randall then lost at home to Purdue.  This was a pretty good team.  They finished 8-5 but four of the five losses were to really good opponents (PSU, MSU, NU, UW).  

2018:
RV in preseason but lost to UW in September.  Ranked three weeks in late October but then lost three straight, finished #25 after a bowl win.  Ranked in 4/16 polls.  

2019:
Ranked all year long!  This was in large part due to FINALLY getting out of September without a loss.  Ended up 10-3 and #15.  

2020:
Didn't lose in September . . . because the B1G didn't play in September.  Went 6-2 but started with the two losses so they were ranked preseason then not again until late November.  

2021:
Ranked all year long!  This was in large part due to getting out of September without a loss.  Ended 10-4 and #23.  

2022:
Finished 8-5 and RV (#34) but not ranked at all largely due to timing, lost to ISU on 9/10 then three straight in October.  

2023:
Ranked in 50% of the polls (8/16).  Finished 10-4 and #24.  Would have been ranked more if not for bad timing:  Lost badly in September to PSU.  Finally got ranked in mid-October then promptly lost  at home to a mediocre MN team.  Finally got back into the rankings in mid-November at 9-2 and remained ranked the rest of the year.  

2024:
#25 in the preseason and finished 8-5 so not THAT far from being ranked but a loss to ISU on 9/7 knocked them out after only two appearances and they never made it back.  

2025:
RV in preseason but barely (#42) and lost in September to ISU.  Didn't make it into the rankings until being 9-4 and #17 in the final poll.  

ManHawk

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Re: 90 Years of AP Polls, the most recent 15: 2011-2025
« Reply #16 on: March 06, 2026, 08:38:56 AM »
A lot of this is timing and specifically the fact that Iowa can't seem to get out of September without a loss.  For the last 15 years:

2011:
Started RV (#32) but lost to ISU.  Second loss on 10/8, cratered starting with a loss to a horrible MN team on 10/29.  Not ranked at all in 2011. 

2012:
4-8 catastrophe of a season, never even received votes. 

2013:
No votes in preseason due to 4-8 finish prior year.  Lost opener to NIU.  Climbed up to RV on 9/29 then promptly lost two straight and three out of four, no votes in November.  Finished November on a three-game winning streak that resulted in votes in the December polls and lost close to a quality LSU team in the Outback bowl to finish RV (#32). 

2014:
Started RV (#30) and maintained votes for a few weeks but then lost to ISU.  No votes again until mid-October but then promptly lost to Maryland and that was it for 2014. 

2015:
No votes preseason due to 7-6 finish prior year.  Started getting votes in week 2, ranked in week 5 and stayed ranked the rest of the way.  Finished 12-2 and #9. 

2016:
#17 in preseason, first preseason ranking since being #10 in 2010!  Lost to NDST on 9/17 and was not ranked again until #22 at 8-4 in late November and #21 in early December then lost bowl and fell out. 

2017:
Lost back-to-back games to PSU and MSU in late September.  In retrospect that wasn't so bad as they finished #8 and #15 respectively.  Got into the poll at #25 after demolishing Ohio State but turned around and got run out of Camp Randall then lost at home to Purdue.  This was a pretty good team.  They finished 8-5 but four of the five losses were to really good opponents (PSU, MSU, NU, UW). 

2018:
RV in preseason but lost to UW in September.  Ranked three weeks in late October but then lost three straight, finished #25 after a bowl win.  Ranked in 4/16 polls. 

2019:
Ranked all year long!  This was in large part due to FINALLY getting out of September without a loss.  Ended up 10-3 and #15. 

2020:
Didn't lose in September . . . because the B1G didn't play in September.  Went 6-2 but started with the two losses so they were ranked preseason then not again until late November. 

2021:
Ranked all year long!  This was in large part due to getting out of September without a loss.  Ended 10-4 and #23. 

2022:
Finished 8-5 and RV (#34) but not ranked at all largely due to timing, lost to ISU on 9/10 then three straight in October. 

2023:
Ranked in 50% of the polls (8/16).  Finished 10-4 and #24.  Would have been ranked more if not for bad timing:  Lost badly in September to PSU.  Finally got ranked in mid-October then promptly lost  at home to a mediocre MN team.  Finally got back into the rankings in mid-November at 9-2 and remained ranked the rest of the year. 

2024:
#25 in the preseason and finished 8-5 so not THAT far from being ranked but a loss to ISU on 9/7 knocked them out after only two appearances and they never made it back. 

2025:
RV in preseason but barely (#42) and lost in September to ISU.  Didn't make it into the rankings until being 9-4 and #17 in the final poll. 
Yup, a great summation.

A lot of 8-5 seasons,  with an occasional 9+ about a third of the time,  and only 1 losing season way bak in 2012.  Consistently decent but not great.  And losing early in the season dooes not help at all, I agree

Edit:  on the other hand,  I just saw a graphic that if the 24-team CFP had existed since 2014,  Iowa would have made the CFP 6 times.  This ranked 13th of all the teams listed.  Not sure how they came up with that.  Not saying it changes anything.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2026, 10:01:39 AM by ManHawk »
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ManHawk

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Re: 90 Years of AP Polls, the most recent 15: 2011-2025
« Reply #17 on: March 06, 2026, 10:10:09 AM »
Medina,
I am not asking you to do any additional analysis,  but part of me is curious if there is any noticeable difference between the BCS/CFP polls vs the AP polls over the years.

My assumption has always been that once the first CFP comes out each year,  the AP voters tend to adjust their rankings to more or less match the CFP.  So its probably not worth looking into.  Its just a thought I had.  Thanks again for all your hard work and great analysis on all this data.
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bayareabadger

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Re: 90 Years of AP Polls, the most recent 15: 2011-2025
« Reply #18 on: March 06, 2026, 10:53:12 AM »
Medina,
I am not asking you to do any additional analysis,  but part of me is curious if there is any noticeable difference between the BCS/CFP polls vs the AP polls over the years.

My assumption has always been that once the first CFP comes out each year,  the AP voters tend to adjust their rankings to more or less match the CFP.  So its probably not worth looking into.  Its just a thought I had.  Thanks again for all your hard work and great analysis on all this data.
Believe that's often the case. 

utee94

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Re: 90 Years of AP Polls, the most recent 15: 2011-2025
« Reply #19 on: March 06, 2026, 10:58:52 AM »
Medina,
I am not asking you to do any additional analysis,  but part of me is curious if there is any noticeable difference between the BCS/CFP polls vs the AP polls over the years.

My assumption has always been that once the first CFP comes out each year,  the AP voters tend to adjust their rankings to more or less match the CFP.  So its probably not worth looking into.  Its just a thought I had.  Thanks again for all your hard work and great analysis on all this data.
Believe that's often the case.

Probably true, but at the same time, I think the CFP selection committee rankings are also heavily influenced by the 10 weeks of AP/Coaches' poll rankings that have already occurred before the first selection committee ranking comes out.


medinabuckeye1

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Re: 90 Years of AP Polls, the most recent 15: 2011-2025
« Reply #20 on: March 06, 2026, 11:57:29 AM »
Medina,
I am not asking you to do any additional analysis,  but part of me is curious if there is any noticeable difference between the BCS/CFP polls vs the AP polls over the years.

My assumption has always been that once the first CFP comes out each year,  the AP voters tend to adjust their rankings to more or less match the CFP.  So its probably not worth looking into.  Its just a thought I had.  Thanks again for all your hard work and great analysis on all this data.
Data would be tricky because it is hard to be objective but my impression is that the committee has done a MUCH better job of considering SoS where in the pre-committee days the main factor seemed to be "when did you lose".  Ie, if Ohio State lost to a REALLY bad team early in the season in the old days that was better than losing to a REALLY good team late in the season.  

FearlessF

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Re: 90 Years of AP Polls, the most recent 15: 2011-2025
« Reply #21 on: March 06, 2026, 12:06:36 PM »
agreed
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FearlessF

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Re: 90 Years of AP Polls, the most recent 15: 2011-2025
« Reply #22 on: March 06, 2026, 12:09:03 PM »
derned September losses

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 90 Years of AP Polls, the most recent 15: 2011-2025
« Reply #23 on: March 06, 2026, 09:13:05 PM »
Lazy cowards.

Lazy for the way they voted back in the day.
Cowards to align their vote with the new, real ranking (and not have evidence that they're "wrong").

Ick.
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