The story of the conference thus far (aside from maybe how disappointing Nebraska looks) is how quickly Purdue seems to have bounced back under Coach Brohm. Is Michigan just sleepwalking or is their offense this blah? Wilton Speight has gotten the bulk of the blame, but the offensive line has been equally underwhelming. The loss of Tariq Black and possible loss of Ty Isaac doesn't give much hope of it looking better this week, particularly as Michigan plays their first true road game of the season, and Michigan under Harbaugh has not looked nearly the same in those types of games. But how good really is Purdue? The Louisville "close loss" doesn't look nearly as good after watching the Cardinals get run off their own field last weekend. Then they handled a MAC team at home and a trainwreck of a Missouri team. But you can only play who you play, and Purdue has done what they've needed to do, and looked very efficient while doing it. Now they have their stage, and if they pull this one out, the top might blow off the whole thing for a program that's been waiting a decade for this. When was the last time there was anticipation around campus for a home game like this? You probably have to go all the way back to October 6, 2007 when a 5-0 #23 Purdue team coming off a road win at Minnesota and a home win over Notre Dame, hosted #4 Ohio State in a night game. That night the Buckeyes raced to a 23-0 4th quarter lead before Purdue tacked on a late touchdown. Purdue doesn't have the defensive line play to force a ton of three and outs, so they need to exploit Michigan's red zone woes to force the Wolverines to settle for threes. That's what Cincinnati and Air Force did to make games that felt lopsided be very much in doubt late. Michigan's red zone touchdown rate of 10% is by far worst in the conference, nobody else is under 60%. Fortunately Michigan has probably the best kicker in the conference, or they probably would not be 3-0. For their part Purdue has one of the better reed zone defenses at forcing field goal attempts. Of the conference teams who have faced at least 10 red zone attempts, only Purdue is holding opponents out over 50% of the time. The problem is how can Purdue move the ball without balance? They want to throw a lot. David Blough has shown great ball security thus far, with a conference best 76.1% completion percentage and only 2 picks. But for all of the good he's shown over the past two years, avoiding picks has not been a strength, throwing 21 picks a year ago. If Purdue can't establish a ground game, Michigan's defense will have another chance to be their best offense.
MICHIGAN 34, PURDUE 17