CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Temp430 on September 18, 2017, 08:33:09 AM
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Michigan's first true road game should be interesting. Purdue is on a roll after losing to Louisville in the opener in a kind of close game. Can Michigan finally get their passing game going and stick it to the Boilers like they should? Rumors abound that Michigan freshman starting WR Tarik Black sustained a serious lower body injury and may be out of the game.
The game is on FOX at 4 PM EDT.
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This is a very tricky game to pick.
I imagine there will be a whole lot of Michigan fans in the stands for this one.
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I'm callin' it.
Spoilermakers pull off the upset.
Take it to the bank!
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Vegas has the boys from Ann Arbor giving 10 points, which if I was handicapping it I'd probably make UM a 3 point favorite.
I've been pleasantly surprised with those boilers, I was on the fence after the Louisville game, and beating Ohio is nice, but it's Ohio. But the beatdown last weekend against Mizzou definitely makes me believe this is an improved squad.
Michigan's D has been pretty solid, but their passing attack has been pretty abysmal for Michigan standards. They just cant keep the chains moving. I'm guessing it will be a 50/50 crowd at least.
I agree, I think the Boilers pull the shocker, if Iowa could do the same somehow the BIG will be out of the playoffs possibly, but the conference race will be up for grabs big time.
Purdue 27-23
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Still trying to figure out how to get a ride there and back, but I'm hoping to go to the game. I think Michigan's defense will do well against Purdue's offense, even though it appears to be pretty good. If they can get any touchdowns (or at least a few turnovers) from the defense and/or special teams, again, that'd be great. However, the offense is definitely concerning. At the least, they have to avoid turnovers. They really need to make some more aggressive playcalls, though.
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Vegas has the boys from Ann Arbor giving 10 points, which if I was handicapping it I'd probably make UM a 3 point favorite.
Really? If I was handicapping, I'd say Michigan -14.5 or so. For Vegas to make it -9.5 (last I saw) IMHO suggests they don't have a huge amount of faith in Michigan.
I think Purdue hit it out of the park with this coaching hire, but Harbaugh is IMHO an excellent coach and has proven it at multiple jobs. If football success comes down to talent+coaching, and both teams have coaching, you have to give the edge to the team that stocked with 4- and 5-star studs over the team with a bunch of 3-stars.
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your prob right, 3's too low, UM -7. and the reason I saw that is UM's scored 33, 36, 29. they're not exactly lighting the world on fire.
and while Purdue's not Steve Spurriers Fun N Gun offense, I think it's probably the best offense that UM will face in it's first 4 games.
I'm def taking the boilers and the 10 points though. In ann arbor maybe not, but I was impressed with how Purdue played Louisville and Jackson, and the team up north does not have a QB anywhere near that caliber.
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Rumors abound that Michigan freshman starting WR Tarik Black sustained a serious lower body injury and may be out of the game.
Sounds like it might be a season ending foot injury
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Perhaps it is confirmation bias, but I have noticed for the first time in a couple seasons, TV spots for Purdue football, actually trying to sell tickets on Indy network affiliates.
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Perhaps it is confirmation bias, but I have noticed for the first time in a couple seasons, TV spots for Purdue football, actually trying to sell tickets on Indy network affiliates.
That's not particularly surprising. Last weeks performance created a decent amount of national exposure. Yes, Missouri is pretty crappy, but I saw a lot of "Week 3 winners and losers" articles that mentioned Purdue. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe that I saw that Purdue has beaten the spread on its first three games by 18, 26, and 38 points. There is a buzz for the first time in a reallllllly long time. Marketing guys are not idiots. They will grab whatever money they can get and ride that wave until the rug gets pulled out from under us like all good Purdue football fans know is coming. ~???
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Michigan is 44-14 all time vs Purdue.
From 1890-1900 Michigan went 6-1 vs Purdue
They didn't play again until 1929 and 1930, with the home team winning each game.
In the 1940s Michigan won all 4 contests.
In the 1950s Michigan won the only game between the two in 1952.
In the 1960s Purdue went 5-2 against Michigan.
In the 1970s Michigan went 8-2 vs Purdue.
In hte 1980s Michigan went 7-1 vs Purdue.
In the 1990s Michigan went 7-1 vs Purdue, once again.
In the 20ots Michigan went 5-3 vs Purdue.
Michigan is 3-0 vs Purdue so far in the 2010s.
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Bill Connolly did a breakdown of Michigan's offense that the major problem is lack of production on 1st down.
The overall numbers don't look bad, but that's because 5 1st down plays have generated a total of 211 yards (42.2 ypp). Their other 83 1st down plays have generated a total 253 yards (3.0 ypp). They are only staying ahead of the sticks on 1st down 33% of the time. 49% of the time they've gained less than a yard.
The red zone TD numbers I brought up last week, were brought up again in the Air Force telecast, namely because they got even worse. But he pulled some deeper numbers and on 1st down in the red zone, UM has had no gain or a loss 67% of the time.
They've actually converted from behind the sticks more often than you'd expect, which is keeping the overall offensive numbers respectable. So you can take it two ways. Either, (1) figure out 1st down and the offense will actually be pretty good; or (2) they are converting 1st downs after a lack of production on 1st down at an unsustainable rate, and their offensive numbers will actually come down further once that regresses to the mean. Or, I suppose, most likely, 1st down production will improve, but 3rd and long production will regress to the mean, and it'll all even out.
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Michigan has issues pass blocking. It's just a little bit harder to make accurate throws when you're running for your life. The situation is kind of the opposite of what they had last year.
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Michigan has issues pass blocking. It's just a little bit harder to make accurate throws when you're running for your life. The situation is kind of the opposite of what they had last year.
In three games, Purdue has three sacks total.
IMHO from what I've seen against Louisville and Mizzou (didn't watch the Ohio game), it seems that Purdue's gotten into the backfield and gotten pressure, but they weren't able to corral Lamar Jackson and didn't actually get a lot of hits on Lock.
So statistics-wise, I would say that Purdue is not a team that will exploit this weakness particularly well.
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I have seen a lot of three-man-rushes from Purdue. They tend to let the linebackers float around for run tackling and intermediate passing defense. It has resulted in pretty decent bend-don't-break defense, but doesn't generate many sacks.
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I have seen a lot of three-man-rushes from Purdue. They tend to let the linebackers float around for run tackling and intermediate passing defense. It has resulted in pretty decent bend-don't-break defense, but doesn't generate many sacks.
This.
Against Louisville the strategy was to contain Jackson. Even on plays where a 4 man rush got penetration, they tended to coral him.
Against Ohio they played to stop the run and force the Bobcats to throw.
They were a bit more aggressive against Mizzou, but didn't sell out to blitz. They focused more on defending the middle of the field.
I think the Boilers will employ the same run stop strategy on Michigan, while covering the middle intermediate routes against the pass.
Most probably won't agree with me, but I think this front 7 is underated.
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I hoping for an entertaining game. Too much of the narrative will be on TTUN; are they a title contender or broken?
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I have seen a lot of three-man-rushes from Purdue. They tend to let the linebackers float around for run tackling and intermediate passing defense. It has resulted in pretty decent bend-don't-break defense, but doesn't generate many sacks.
Thus far, obviously a small sample, they've been bend-don't-break vs pass and kind of the opposite vs the run. Their ability to force short runs has been pretty OK.
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I hoping for an entertaining game. Too much of the narrative will be on TTUN; are they a title contender or broken?
Can I vote that they are somewhere in the vast landscape in between those two. I don't see them as broken given how young they are, but I don't think this team is a legitimate title contender.
My favorite part of Michigan this year has been the play at the MLB position. It's been a long time since I have seen a ball hawk MLB at Michigan (David Harris maybe). Devin Bush has been lights out. Slightly undersized, but he flies to the ball.
I also like the running game. Its not great yet, but it is good. Much better than the past few years. Still too many zero to low yardage plays on first down, but there is some improvement with moving people off the line and RB's reading lanes more effectively.
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So play this game 10 times... What's the O/U on Purdue wins?
Obviously Michigan has a more talented roster top to bottom, great coaching, etc. Michigan is favored with good reason, as they should win this game. But they seem to have offensive problems and Purdue has a real live offense this year, and in low-scoring battles like this I think the team with the better offense has more opportunities for positive variance compared to "expectation".
I'm saying ~2.25. I think these teams are close enough that Purdue has a puncher's chance with their offense to win 2 out of 10, and 3 wouldn't shock me.
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Sounds like it might be a season ending foot injury
broken foot. out for the year.
DPJ should've been playing more than Black IMO. Both of them are raw. DPJ is the far superior athlete. Just watching him against Air Force when they finally had to give him more chances to touch the ball- he looked like Ted Ginn but with 3 inches and 20 pounds. DPJ is fricken special. They need to tool that entire passing offense around him, then the TE's, then Perry. Speight is terrible and Dylan Crawford is a bust. Great athlete, terrible route runner and piss poor hands.
This game will be a lot closer than it should be, because of Speight's inaccuracy and ineptitude.
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Michigan has a heck of a defense and maybe the best kicker they've ever had.
Speight needs to pull his head out of his ass and throw the damn ball accurately.
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I finalized my trip today. I'll be getting there before Noon and staying overnight. I was surprised that there are still so many tickets in the visitors section which I understand to be the left corner of the endzone (mine is section 119), but I certainly made paid my dues to the West / Lafayette economy in my hotel room, alone, but I at least get to watch the night games, this way.
I'm looking forward to it. Michigan's passing game is the biggest uncertainty but the running game will be most important.
My final prediction is a 33-20 win.
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I hoping for an entertaining game. Too much of the narrative will be on TTUN; are they a title contender or broken?
they are pretty much the same team as last year except they have a MUCH better kicker in Nordin and the defense looks more opportunistic and more athletic. In 3 games they already have more defensive TD's as they did all of last year, and the safeties and LB's look even more athletic in terms of running sideline to sideline to the ball.
Same team as last year basically. Speight will hold them back which is why they'll lose 2 or 3 games- maybe even 4 loss. If they had a stud QB they'd be a National Title contender- probably undefeated. If they had even a good, solid QB they'd probably be a 1 loss team- 2 at most.
I am sick and tired of Michigan not having a stud QB. It's been since Drew Henson. That was 17 years ago. Don't give me Henne or Denard. Denard was a RB playing QB and Henne was robotic as hell. My patience is running thin with the QB position at Michigan.
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they are pretty much the same team as last year except they have a MUCH better kicker in Nordin and the defense looks more opportunistic and more athletic. In 3 games they already have more defensive TD's as they did all of last year, and the safeties and LB's look even more athletic in terms of running sideline to sideline to the ball.
Same team as last year basically. Speight will hold them back which is why they'll lose 2 or 3 games- maybe even 4 loss. If they had a stud QB they'd be a National Title contender- probably undefeated. If they had even a good, solid QB they'd probably be a 1 loss team- 2 at most.
I am sick and tired of Michigan not having a stud QB. It's been since Drew Henson. That was 17 years ago. Don't give me Henne or Denard. Denard was a RB playing QB and Henne was robotic as hell. My patience is running thin with the QB position at Michigan.
Man, if Henne doesn't meet your standard, that's a tough standard.
I would agree they haven't had one since Henne though.
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Man, if Henne doesn't meet your standard, that's a tough standard.
I would agree they haven't had one since Henne though.
Henne was very good. Never lived up to the promise of his true freshman season though. He never really got any better. He was basically the same guy every year. Never saw real improvement from him.
I'd say he was definitely a really good, solid QB. I wouldn't put him in the STUD category though. It was looking that way after his freshman season, but he never really grew. It was actually very disappointing to see. I thought for sure he would just continue to get better but it never happened.
He is by far the best they've had in a long time and nobody has even come close.
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Harbaugh really screwed up by not making a change at QB after the Florida game. I can understand not starting a new guy against Florida on the road. That's a pretty solid defense with athletes all around and it's a road game. But after Speight's performance that game he should've been benched.
At home against UC and Air Force- he should've given the reigns to Peters. Those would've been perfect opportunities to get the young QB's feet wet and help build confidence. Think it's way too late to make a change now playing @ a much improved Purdue team, then Michigan State in a big-rivarly game at home, and then @ an always pesky Indiana squad and then @ Penn State.
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The story of the conference thus far (aside from maybe how disappointing Nebraska looks) is how quickly Purdue seems to have bounced back under Coach Brohm. Is Michigan just sleepwalking or is their offense this blah? Wilton Speight has gotten the bulk of the blame, but the offensive line has been equally underwhelming. The loss of Tariq Black and possible loss of Ty Isaac doesn't give much hope of it looking better this week, particularly as Michigan plays their first true road game of the season, and Michigan under Harbaugh has not looked nearly the same in those types of games. But how good really is Purdue? The Louisville "close loss" doesn't look nearly as good after watching the Cardinals get run off their own field last weekend. Then they handled a MAC team at home and a trainwreck of a Missouri team. But you can only play who you play, and Purdue has done what they've needed to do, and looked very efficient while doing it. Now they have their stage, and if they pull this one out, the top might blow off the whole thing for a program that's been waiting a decade for this. When was the last time there was anticipation around campus for a home game like this? You probably have to go all the way back to October 6, 2007 when a 5-0 #23 Purdue team coming off a road win at Minnesota and a home win over Notre Dame, hosted #4 Ohio State in a night game. That night the Buckeyes raced to a 23-0 4th quarter lead before Purdue tacked on a late touchdown. Purdue doesn't have the defensive line play to force a ton of three and outs, so they need to exploit Michigan's red zone woes to force the Wolverines to settle for threes. That's what Cincinnati and Air Force did to make games that felt lopsided be very much in doubt late. Michigan's red zone touchdown rate of 10% is by far worst in the conference, nobody else is under 60%. Fortunately Michigan has probably the best kicker in the conference, or they probably would not be 3-0. For their part Purdue has one of the better reed zone defenses at forcing field goal attempts. Of the conference teams who have faced at least 10 red zone attempts, only Purdue is holding opponents out over 50% of the time. The problem is how can Purdue move the ball without balance? They want to throw a lot. David Blough has shown great ball security thus far, with a conference best 76.1% completion percentage and only 2 picks. But for all of the good he's shown over the past two years, avoiding picks has not been a strength, throwing 21 picks a year ago. If Purdue can't establish a ground game, Michigan's defense will have another chance to be their best offense.
MICHIGAN 34, PURDUE 17
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So, I haven't seen a Michigan game yet this year. How does their secondary look (particularly the safeties)? How are their linebackers in pass coverage?
From what I've seen so far from Purdue, the routes are designed to attack the secondary HARD. I know people talk about "four verts" but I was watching a clip here (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/9/20/16334894/purdue-football-2017-jeff-brohm-head-coach-offense) where I swear they ran five verts out of an empty set. It seems they want to force the safeties to commit to something and throw to the opposite receiver, kinda like in option football. Force the defense to make a choice, then make the decision that makes them wrong.
Right now our tight ends are the #1 and #3 receivers on the team by yardage, with the slot receiver at #2. It shows me that Purdue is attacking the linebackers and safeties mercilessly. Somewhat like what Tiller did when he arrived (because B1G linebackers/safeties were built to defend the run).
Any thoughts? I know Michigan lost a lot to the draft, but everyone is talking up their defense. Does it have any weaknesses in coverage?
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THE DBs are young, talented, and so far have been better than OK. Linebacker skills vary in pass coverage..Hudson is good in space, McCray and Furbush not so much. Michigan will punish Purdue's QB if he hangs on to the ball for more than a couple seconds. So I expect a lot of short routes and screens out of the shotgun from Purdue. With some runs that wont amount to much. Michigan's offense is more than fine having a running game for the first time in six years.
Boilermakers get a shot of reality Saturday.
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So, I haven't seen a Michigan game yet this year. How does their secondary look (particularly the safeties)? How are their linebackers in pass coverage?
From what I've seen so far from Purdue, the routes are designed to attack the secondary HARD. I know people talk about "four verts" but I was watching a clip here (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/9/20/16334894/purdue-football-2017-jeff-brohm-head-coach-offense) where I swear they ran five verts out of an empty set. It seems they want to force the safeties to commit to something and throw to the opposite receiver, kinda like in option football. Force the defense to make a choice, then make the decision that makes them wrong.
Right now our tight ends are the #1 and #3 receivers on the team by yardage, with the slot receiver at #2. It shows me that Purdue is attacking the linebackers and safeties mercilessly. Somewhat like what Tiller did when he arrived (because B1G linebackers/safeties were built to defend the run).
Any thoughts? I know Michigan lost a lot to the draft, but everyone is talking up their defense. Does it have any weaknesses in coverage?
LaVert Hill, David Long, and Brandon Watson have all looked better than I expected them too at CB, but the CB's really haven't been tested.
The safeties Josh Mettellus and Tyree Kinnel have been active against the run and have blown up screens and done a great job for the most part. Mettellus blew a coverage and let a UC guy get behind him for a TD but the guy dropped the ball. Kinnel bit HARD on a play-action against Air Force and gave up a long TD- but I feel like that's bound to happen against a triple option team that runs it 60 times a game and passes it like 8. Off the top of my head- other than that- they have both really been solid in coverage.
They just really haven't been tested against the pass to be honest. Hill looks like he could be a special CB though, very impressed with his ability to stay in the hip pocket and he's way better in run support than I thought he would be. Might be blasphemous to say- but he looks an awful lot like Jourdan Lewis to me.
The safeties Kinnel and Mettelus are thumpers, excellent tacklers, both of them fly to the football. Definitely have more "football instincts" than Dymonte Thomas or Delano Hill imo. Neither one of them have the kind of pure athletic ability or speed of Thomas or Delano Hill- but both of the new safeties might wind up being better ball players when it's all said and done though.
Thomas was a freak athlete coming out of high school- borderline 5* kid in the 247Composite- Scout rated him as a 5* the other sites had him rated in the top 60ish- problem is he had had zero football instinct. Delano Hill ran a 4.46 at 6'1, 216 lbs at the NFL Combine and got himself drafted in the 3rd round by the Seahawks- never really looked like a natural or like he had the instincts like Mettelus or Kinnel IMO. He was just a phenomenal athlete for a guy his size and masked some of his deficiencies in terms of instinct and natural feel for the position.
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I'm looking forward to this game. Brohm has gotten the offense up to speed very quickly. Possibly, Purdue will get overwhelmed at the line of scrimmage and not be able to do much, but if they can hold their own I'd like to see how UM holds up on the back end. Purdue running a lot of RPO's, which I love.
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Also, Michigan has faced three of the dreariest passing teams in the country, so tough to tell what to expect there.
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Also, Michigan has faced three of the dreariest passing teams in the country, so tough to tell what to expect there.
this is true- especially in the case of Air Force and UC.
BUT...Florida's QB does have a huge arm and he can push the ball down the field and Florida does have a couple of very talented WR's- even with Callaway suspended. Cleveland- that's a future NFL receiver. The coverage against UF's receivers from Hill, Watson, and Long (when he was healthy and in the game) was tight and pretty solid- it took really some perfect or near perfect throws and some great catches from UF's WR's to get anything that game. That CB unit wasn't getting burned or giving up anything easy.
LaVert Hill was a top 100 player in the 247Composite and he did win the National Defensive Back of the Year at that Army Bowl game. David Long was a borderline 5* kid in the top 60ish and he has a legit track background with an electronic 10.5 in the 100m and he also ran an electronic 4.39 at one of those Nike Opening camps. These dudes have pedigree and recruiting STARZ- and CB is one position where that translates a lot of times. A lot of playing CB- especially man to man CB- is just pure athlete and instinct. Those two guys are young- but they are definitely very talented.
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Sounds like it'll be an interesting matchup.
And yes, one of the keys will be whether the OL can protect Blough long enough for any of these routes to develop. Purdue hasn't seen a defensive front like this.
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The Florida offense is inferior to Purdue. No offense to the Gators, but they just aren't on Brohms level. It's true that Florida has more star power, but that doesn't equate to Michigan being able to defend it the same way, or stop it easier.
Brohm runs an ultra modern pro-style. Despite some thinking it is pass heavy, it is not. It is well balanced. Every play has layers of different options and misdirections. Some are real options that are progressed through, others are decoys to divide the defense and create weak spots.
This is definitely an interesting match up. As everyone knows, a good Michigan front 7 can blow it up before it gets rolling. The Purdue OL will be tested mightily here. If they can hold, then the Wolverines will be forced to defend something that they've never seen before, or will for the rest of the season.
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The Florida offense is inferior to Purdue. No offense to the Gators, but they just aren't on Brohms level. It's true that Florida has more star power, but that doesn't equate to Michigan being able to defend it the same way, or stop it easier.
Brohm runs an ultra modern pro-style. Despite some thinking it is pass heavy, it is not. It is well balanced. Every play has layers of different options and misdirections. Some are real options that are progressed through, others are decoys to divide the defense and create weak spots.
This is definitely an interesting match up. As everyone knows, a good Michigan front 7 can blow it up before it gets rolling. The Purdue OL will be tested mightily here. If they can hold, then the Wolverines will be forced to defend something that they've never seen before, or will for the rest of the season.
Oh I definitely agree with you there. Florida's offense isn't good. McElwain can't hold Brohm's jockstrap. Brohm was an excellent hire by Purdue.
Like you said the match-up key will be can the Purdue OL hold up and can Purdue run the ball on Michigan's D to keep them honest. If Purdue can't run at all and they have to throw every down and get into 3rd and long all game long- that just make it that much easier for Brown to dial up pressure and for guys like Rashan Gary, Chase Winovich, Devin Bush, and Khaleke Hudson to have a big impact on the game.
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Was thinking about some of the past games from Tiller's heyday in this series, and I was wondering if the 2004 game would end the same way today.
That was when Michigan kicked a FG with about 2 minutes left to take a lead 16-14. Purdue came back, hit a big catch and run across the middle, and on the edge a FG range the defender went low, flipped the WR in the air, Shazor came in and levelled him, knocked the ball loose and Michigan recovered it to win.
Even though the WR was totally defenseless, I don't think he was defenseless within the definition for targeting. But I definitely recall, and on YouTube replay it's close, that Shazor launched himself with the crown of his helmet. My guess is it gets flagged, and not only does Michigan not get the ball, the 15 yards puts Purdue in chip shot FG range for the win, and Shazor is ejected from that game, and is also out for the first half the following week against Michigan State, in the 3OT Braylon Edwards game.
Purdue continued their tailspin right out of the rankings, with another 2 losses in a 4 loss streak (by a combined 10 points). But you wonder how different everything is if the rules had been different back that.
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Was thinking about some of the past games from Tiller's heyday in this series, and I was wondering if the 2004 game would end the same way today.
That was when Michigan kicked a FG with about 2 minutes left to take a lead 16-14. Purdue came back, hit a big catch and run across the middle, and on the edge a FG range the defender went low, flipped the WR in the air, Shazor came in and levelled him, knocked the ball loose and Michigan recovered it to win.
Even though the WR was totally defenseless, I don't think he was defenseless within the definition for targeting. But I definitely recall, and on YouTube replay it's close, that Shazor launched himself with the crown of his helmet. My guess is it gets flagged, and not only does Michigan not get the ball, the 15 yards puts Purdue in chip shot FG range for the win, and Shazor is ejected from that game, and is also out for the first half the following week against Michigan State, in the 3OT Braylon Edwards game.
Purdue continued their tailspin right out of the rankings, with another 2 losses in a 4 loss streak (by a combined 10 points). But you wonder how different everything is if the rules had been different back that.
Damn. That's bringing back memories lol. The game has changed so much. Probably would've happened just like that. I hate all the targeting calls- wish they'd just get rid of them.
Ernest Shazor in Don Brown's defense as a "viper" LB/S would've been a sight to see man. That was a guy who was tailor made for that sort of position. Peppers would've been better playing SS, just because of his lack of size. 5'11, 205 - not the biggest dude to be taking on fullbacks and linemen. Ernest Shazor was every bit of 6-foot-4 and 235+ pounds and was probably one of the strongest dudes on Michigan's team back in that day. He was just an animal. Speaking of Braylon- I actually saw Braylon a couple weeks ago at a bar in Royal Oak. He was drunk as shit wearing sunglasses at night inside a dark bar. Surprising I know!
Both of those guys should've had very long, productive NFL careers. What a waste of unbelievable talent.
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Trying to figure out how that 2004 Michigan team lost 3 games, and had to pull out miracle wins against Minnesota, Purdue and Michigan State to avoid having more will make your head hurt.
Trying to figure out where they weren't great, and I'm stuck on RB depth, OL and LBs.
You had Henne and Hart in the backfield.
Edwards, Avant and Breaston at WR
Woodley and Massey flanking Branch and Watson on the DL
Then the DBS are the most ridiculous of all, Marlin Jackson and Leon Hall at corner, with Shazor and Mundy (who never fully realized his potential at UM) at safety.
The OL was fine but not elite. Baas was great at center. Jake Long became great, but was a freshman RT. Then Lentz, Riley, Stenavich? LB was McClintock, Pierre Woods and Roy Manning. That, and Underwood being an underwhelming backup to Hart is about all I got.
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Trying to figure out how that 2004 Michigan team lost 3 games, and had to pull out miracle wins against Minnesota, Purdue and Michigan State to avoid having more will make your head hurt.
Trying to figure out where they weren't great, and I'm stuck on RB depth, OL and LBs.
You had Henne and Hart in the backfield.
Edwards, Avant and Breaston at WR
Woodley and Massey flanking Branch and Watson on the DL
Then the DBS are the most ridiculous of all, Marlin Jackson and Leon Hall at corner, with Shazor and Mundy (who never fully realized his potential at UM) at safety.
The OL was fine but not elite. Baas was great at center. Jake Long became great, but was a freshman RT. Then Lentz, Riley, Stenavich? LB was McClintock, Pierre Woods and Roy Manning. That, and Underwood being an underwhelming backup to Hart is about all I got.
They didn't call him LLLoyd Carr for nothing.
The 3 games they lost were @ ND in a true frosh Chad Henne's first ever road start and his 2nd ever start, @ Ohio State and then in that epic Rose Bowl game by 1 point on a last second FG in which Vince Young just dominated Michigan. That was VY's coming out party- and he did the same thing to USC the very next Rose Bowl. Those 3 miracle comeback wins they had to fight for- should've never even been in those positions to be honest.
Hart didn't really get the start until the 3rd or maybe even 4th game of that season. Carr did everything he could to basically hand the job to David Underwood- the 6', 220 pound 5* from Texas. Turns out the 5'8, 190 pound true frosh 3* from upstate NY was a special back. Carr played favorites to big-shot recruits and he was as conservative as it gets when playing young guys. He promised Henne he'd play- that's how he got the 5* out of Penn State's backyard- and he didn't have a choice but to play Henne after Gutierrez got hurt.
RB depth wasn't that big an issue- as once Hart became the starter he never left the field and was just all-around good at everything.
Biggest issues with that team were Henne's inexperience as a true frosh QB, the OL just being above average and not really anything special, and the LB's being a pretty big weakpoint.
That WR talent was insane. That really masked a lot of Henne's deficiencies. After that year you really thought Henne would develop into something incredible- but it never happened. Looking back he was probably as successful as he was as a true frosh bc he had a truly special RB in Hart to hand the ball off too and a group of WR's who were just excellent. Jason Avant played in the NFL for like a decade and he never dropped anything at Michigan- the quintessential #2 possession WR who could run good routes, hold onto the ball, make tough catches and move the chains. Braylon Edwards was a freak of nature- he made tough jump ball circus catches look easy and he had the size and speed combo where he could take a 5 yard pass, break a tackle, turn on the jets and take it 60. Breaston was as elusive and slippery as it got- throw him a screen or a slant he's getting YAC almost at will. That WR trio and that RB made Henne that year.
I think had they just started Mike Hart from day 1 they probably beat ND and grind out that W to finish that year 10-2. I don't think they were going to beat Tressell in Columbus- JT just had Carr's number like Carr had Cooper's- and I don't think there was anyway they were going to beat Vince Young that day. Young was just doing whatever he wanted to Michigan. He was just unstoppable.
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That was a good group of wide outs in AA.Wasn't Arrington in that bunch also
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Speaking of Shazor, didn't he get a finger on that Texas FG and cause it to knuckle, but still barely get through? One more inch of vertical and Michigan wins that game.
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That was a good group of wide outs in AA.Wasn't Arrington in that bunch also
Yeah, I think he was a true freshman. Didn't play a bunch.
Was the guy from Jackson there yet? I can't remember his name, but he was a QB in HS and looking like a stud WR but had a career ending injury vs. Iowa.
MSU almost flipped him by offering him the chance to play QB, when every other school was saying WR. That was JLS' thing though.
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That was a good group of wide outs in AA.Wasn't Arrington in that bunch also
he was. A true frosh who was like the 5th WR, he barely caught passes. Edwards was the go to guy, then Avant, then Breaston, then the TE's. I think Arrington might've caught less than 10 passes that year- if that.
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he was. A true frosh who was like the 5th WR, he barely caught passes. Edwards was the go to guy, then Avant, then Breaston, then the TE's. I think Arrington might've caught less than 10 passes that year- if that.
2 for 12 yards.
Behind the 3 big names and Hart, as well as Massaquoi and Ecker as the TEs, and Gonzalez as the #4 WR.
I think Carl Tabb was already in full on bust mode by that point?
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Yeah, I think he was a true freshman. Didn't play a bunch.
Was the guy from Jackson there yet? I can't remember his name, but he was a QB in HS and looking like a stud WR but had a career ending injury vs. Iowa.
MSU almost flipped him by offering him the chance to play QB, when every other school was saying WR. That was JLS' thing though.
No Antonio Bass was in the 2005 class with Manningham.
Bass got injured in practice in the off-season of 2006 in a no-contact freak accident. He was making a cut and his knee just exploded. He had extensive nerve damage and a dropped foot. Was never the same again, he could never play football again.
Bass was basically Steve Breaston with 2 inches, 25 pounds, more power, more speed/acceleration. Bass was a freak athlete. Breaston was great, but he was all of 5'11, 180 in college and you get hands on him he's going down. Tough to get hands on him- but he's going down if you do. Bass was 6'1, 205 and could break tackles and keep on running. Much bigger, physical guy.
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Would have worked out nicely in EL. Come in, redshirt as a freshman, backup Stanton as a RS freshman in 2006, then have Dantonio come in and move him to WR. That first MD team that was all offense with Brian Hoyer, Javon Ringer and Devin Thomas, would have looked even nicer with Bass opposite Thomas.
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Speaking of Shazor, didn't he get a finger on that Texas FG and cause it to knuckle, but still barely get through? One more inch of vertical and Michigan wins that game.
think it was LB Prescott Burggess that got a piece of it.
Speaking of Burgess- he was like the #5 player in the entire country and the #1 player in Ohio. Decent player, but never wound up being remotely close to that sort of ranking. Seems like all of the really highly rated kids from Ohio that Michigan has gotten since the advent of the recruit ranks haven't really lived up to it. There haven't been many, as Ohio State has gotten everyone they've wanted out of Ohio- but seems like any kid from Ohio that Michigan has landed since like 2002 to present that had a 5* next to his name hasn't played like a 5* for Michigan.
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Would have like to see Devin Funchess on that team with Henne.Thought he had the tools.He's doing decent with Carolina
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The 2* kids they haven't wanted have done alright for us (LeVeon Bell, Connor Cook)
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Would have worked out nicely in EL. Come in, redshirt as a freshman, backup Stanton as a RS freshman in 2006, then have Dantonio come in and move him to WR. That first MD team that was all offense with Brian Hoyer, Javon Ringer and Devin Thomas, would have looked even nicer with Bass opposite Thomas.
Bass would've definitely been an NFL player if not for the injury. What round- depends on how well he honed his WR skills. He was basically a Percy Harvin before Percy Harvin- but bigger and stronger. He would've been a perfect fit in that style of wide open offense that used him as a WR and RB.
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Would have like to see Devin Funchess on that team with Henne.Thought he had the tools.He's doing decent with Carolina
wouldn't have been enough footballs to go around lol. Between Edwards, Avant, Breaston, the TE duo of Massaqoui and Massey, and then the screens and swing passes to Hart- just not enough passes in a game for him to get his.
Funchess was basically a poor man's Braylon without the explosive speed. Funchess was a little bit taller, longer, little bit heavier- but nowhere near as explosive or athletic or strong as Edwards. Braylon was special.
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If he stays the course Funchess might have a better NFL career than Braylon
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If he stays the course Funchess might have a better NFL career than Braylon
I disagree.
Braylon's NFL career was better than you think. He played 9 years in the NFL and averaged 15+ YPC and had 40+ touchdowns. It was just such a disappointment because he was capable of so much more. He had the talent. He just lacked the brain or the love of the game.
Braylon's first year in the NFL he missed half the year with an ACL injury and he still put up better numbers than Funchess' first year. And that was playing with a bunch of scrub QB's in Cleveland- not NFL MVP Cam Newton.
Braylon's 2nd and 3rd year in the NFL- he blew past anything Funchess did in his 2nd or 3rd year. Devin Funchess ain't doing this to an NFL defense ever
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyCIYTz08qw
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Edwards was pretty good the year that the Browns won ten games, iirc.
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Ya 2007 he had like 1200+yds receiving.Between him & KW II - what could have been in C-Town
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Ugh. 2004. Such a snakebit year for Purdue, starting with "The Fumble". A moment so enshrined in Purdue history that we view it as the turning point where the program went from its zenith to its nadir in 2016.
That 2004 game Orton was playing hurt. IIRC he had *two* hip pointers at the time. And yet we damn near pulled it out.
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Ya 2007 he had like 1200+yds receiving.Between him & KW II - what could have been in C-Town
he also averaged like 17+ YPC and had 16 touchdown catches that year too. You could make a case he was a top 5 WR in the league at the time. It was certainly trending that way.
KW II and Braylon both had ELITE talent for their positions. It's a shame that both of them didn't live up to the kind of ability they had. They were both very good NFL players. I wouldn't consider either of them flat out busts. Considering the kind of talent they had though- they should've both been in the HOF or at the least knocking on those HOF doors.
Larry Fitzgerald and Antonio Gates will both end up in the hall. And rightfully so. Two of the greatest ever at their positions. Neither one of them was as talented or gifted as Braylon or KW II though. That game, that league- it's about way more than talent.
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Random thoughts..
Purdue WRs have had drops on critical downs.
Purdue special teams have looked bad in coverage. A big return gets a lethargic UM offense going.
Little things matter.
Purdue has a knack to force fumbles at key moments.
The Boiler red zone D has been stout.
Just a hunch, I feel the Boilers are going to bring it on defense. I imagine they come after Speight. I'm talking something we haven't seen the previous 3 games.
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So concerning targeting... obviously I think Purdue got screwed here. 2 ejections on questionable calls. Those players will miss time vs Minnesota also (correct me if I'm wrong).
This penalty gives refs free reign to adversely affect a game...or games! Not only is it subjective, it is also one sided. This rule specifically targets the defense. The offense violates the principals of this rule constantly, and nobody bats an eye.
Here me out.
The defense is defenseless. The offense makes forcible contact to the defenders head and neck area without pause. The offenders strike with the helmet crown, shoulder, hand, fist, elbow (stiff arm). They lower the head before attacking. They crouch and thrust forward.
The defender is defenseless because of said rule. In order to not be subject of a subjective penalty, the defense must let the target gain possession of the ball, and then establish forward momentum and awareness, rendering the offense able to be defensive.
The defense must let the offense assert their will. Any attempt to interrupt this is subject to a penalty...a penalty that the offense is not subject to.
The icing on the cake, of course, is that the rule is enforced (or not) entirely different from game to game, and conference to conference.
I need a refill.
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So concerning targeting... obviously I think Purdue got screwed here. 2 ejections on questionable calls. Those players will miss time vs Minnesota also (correct me if I'm wrong).
What pisses me off about this is that I expected to lose this game. Michigan had more talent and depth, and although Purdue gave them a hell of a fight for 30 minutes, we just didn't have the depth to keep it up in the 2nd.
But now two of our best defenders will miss half the Minnesota game. A game that is definitely winnable. That could turn the tide of that entire game.
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I had a really good time in West Lafayette this weekend. Props on the two local craft beers that are sold inside the stadium, as well. Fortunately, the heat wasn't a major issue with the tailgate spot and seat I had both being mostly shaded. I was mostly with other Michigan fans but most of the Purdue fans I encountered seemed good-natured. I didn't get a chance to really see any of the downtown area, though.
The offense finally had a solid and efficient game finishing drives with 4 TDs instead of FGs. I'm not sure if what we saw from O'Korn is what we can expect to see consistently if he remains the starter. He narrowly avoided some sacks, which he impressively escaped but probably shouldn't have gotten himself in trouble in the first place. I was glad to see the TEs finally get more involved, especially with Black's injury. The RBs were solid, as well.
Michigan's defense was dominant, especially in the second half. They seemed ready for most of the trick plays, so at this point I'm pretty confident that they can contain just about any offense they face. Special teams was also mostly a plus, even without needing any FGs, finally. Robbins finally came in at punter, and seems to be better than Hart. No non-offensive scores or major turnovers this week, though.
I'm glad we have our bye week next to figure out Speight's situation and adjust the offense according to whoever might be the starter. I'm conflicted on who it should be. Speight has been better when he plays well, but that hasn't happened since the middle of last year. If O'Korn starts the rest of the year and plays well, I could see Speight potentially becoming a graduate transfer if Peters masters the offense (which is apparently his problem) and McCaffery coming off his redshirt season this year. That's all premature speculation for now, though.
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O'Korn holds the ball too long, doesn't make reads fast enough and often runs himself into sacks. His pocket presence is lacking. He moves up when he should side step, side steps when he should move up. His feel for the pressure ain't good. And he often hesitates- he's about to run and take off then he stops and tries to pass, or he'll wait too long to bail on a pass and then try to run. He's got to be way more decisive and just go with it.
I still like his game a lot better than Speight's. He throws with a touch and accuracy that Speight just does not have. O'Korn put a lot of balls right on the numbers or right in the hands in stride for his WR's. Speight rarely if ever throws balls like that. Most of Speight's passes are high or wide.
Defense is nasty. Devin Bush and Chase Winovich are both amazing. The speed those guys have for their positions is eye opening. You don't see DE's or LB's that run like that very often.
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Chase Winovich wins National Defensive Player of the Week for his 3 sack performance against Purdue. Winovich is 1st in the B1G with 6 sacks, Devin Bush Jr is 2nd in the B1G with 4.5 sacks.
Michigan has the #1 total defense in the NCAA giving up just 203 yards per game. Michigan also has the #1 defense in terms of yards per play giving up only 3.52 yards per play. Michigan's rush defense is ranked 4th in the nation giving up 69 yards per game. Michigan's scoring defense is tied for 12th in the nation giving up 13 PPG. Take out Speight's two pick 6's though and that 13 PPG number goes down- those points weren't on the defense but still counted in that PPG total.
You take out 14 points for those pick 6's- real number is 10 PPG that defense is giving up. And 3 of Purdue's were points off a turnover and 7 of Cinci's were points off of turnovers. If they just stop turning the ball over and have an efficient offense- this team could be LETHAL because they have a hell of a defense- maybe the best kicker in the country in Nordin, a solid special teams unit and a guy in DPJ who can house it on a return or two. Entire season all rests on the QB play and the development of the offense.
Purdue's 2nd half drive chart vs. Michigan's defense:
3 plays, 1 yard, PUNT
3 plays, 3 yards, PUNT
3 plays, -3 yards, PUNT
3 plays, 5 yards, PUNT
5 plays, 3 yards, PUNT
1 play, 3 yards, FUMBLE
Purdue had more plays go for no yards or negative yards (12) than plays that gained positive yardage (5) in the 2nd half.
Yeah, this defense is pretty good with a lot of room to grow. Lots of young out there. Still haven't seen MAX Rashan Gary yet and Bryan Mone has barely touched the field. Get those two big fellas really going up a notch and this defense will be even nastier than it already is. Still think Ambry Thomas will find his way on the field at DB at some point- he's just too talented to keep on the bench and his redshirt has already been burned on special teams.
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The ejections for targeting were good calls. The refs missed another one on the late helmet to helmet hit that knocked Speight out of the game. Purdue may have shot themselves in the ass when they knocked Speight out.
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The big controversy out of West Lafayette is the lack of air conditioning or heat in the visitor locker room. The engineering school hasn't figured out how to run HVAC to it I guess. ;)
With Saturday as it was temperature wise, as many players as could fit were sent all the way out to the parking lot to sit in busses at halftime. Harbaugh was quoted stating it as "gamesmanship that is not sportsmanlike."
I get the pink locker room silliness Iowa has, but when health and safety are compromised and it isn't something the home locker room has that is a fairly big deal. It appears Harbaugh and Urban Meyer are on the same page in pushing the conference to quickly developing some uniform standards for basic size, health and safety in visitor locker rooms.
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(https://media.giphy.com/media/hxvjP8KbmDuCc/giphy-facebook_s.jpg)
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It's a shame that Michigan football's first ever visit to the visiting locker rooms of Purdue should be marred by this tragic affront upon humanity. If Michigan had ever traveled to Purdue before, I am sure that someone would have noticed this crime and been that beacon of light to illuminate this travesty. After all, the game of football has been played for over 100 years and those players have enjoyed perfect comfort of 72 degrees during halftime over that entire time. Thank you Jimmy, for bringing this to the forefront of attention.
....and for the record, the locker room does have venting. That's required by code. So you can't claim that they have no HVAC. :)
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Statement from Purdue:
"Purdue regards the welfare of all student-athletes as its No. 1 priority. We would fully support a conversation regarding a conference-wide set of guidelines for visiting football team accommodations because we have experienced less-than-ideal conditions on the road. There is no place for gamesmanship when it comes to player care and safety.
"The after-the-fact concerns expressed by Michigan are somewhat surprising because a member of its football staff conducted a walk-thru of our facilities with our athletic department staff at Ross-Ade Stadium on July 18.
"Furthermore, to help teams prepare in advance, our visiting team manual highlights in bold type 'there is no air conditioning in the {visiting) locker rooms" with accompanying Purdue Athletics staff contact information about hot to request preferred temporary accommodations. We did not receive any such request.
"Basic X-ray is available within our athletic footprint and more-sophisticated capabilities are located two blocks away, similar to the arraignments at many other schools. Our sports medicine staff members, in fact, have received numerous compliments from their Michigan counterparts regarding the care they received at Purdue."
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maybe Purdue spent all its money buying new chairs since Brohm likes to pick them up and smash them? Lol. On a serious note, think he's a heck of a coach but what is this the WWE? Dude you're like 50. I bet Belichik and Bill Walsh did that sort of thing too.
On a serious note, it is beyond pathetic that Purdue's visiting locker room doesn't have A/C. They get a $30 million tv check every year. They can afford some damn permanent A/C units for the visiting locker rooms. Cmon. GTFO here.
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As Coach Harbaugh said it's not just Purdue. This issue needs to be addressed by the league and standards implemented. And it's just not the Big Ten so maybe the NCAA needs to address this issue as well. There are some notable football programs out there where the visiting team's locker room is atrocious.
As for Purdue's statement quoted by 847Badgerfan I would suggest Purdue's athletic department run such statements by a technical editor before they are released.
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The Speight knockout was a no-call. Intent is the key to that play and whether the DLman could have avoided the pancake on Speight's back and head is key to intent. IMHO I have to take a pass here. It was bang bang and the DLman was already aiming which required judgement to alter. I have no idea if his split second of time hit his mental decision enough to alter his path to Speight.
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love the defense so far obviously- but can't help but think what it'd look like if CB Channing Stribling and DE Taco Charlton never had their redshirts burned by Brady Hoke when there was really no reason at all to burn either shirt- and if Jabrill had decided to return. Can't remember the last time I saw a Michigan player go pro as a RS Soph. It's pretty rare actually- feel like you don't see that too often- RS Soph's going pro.
If they had those 3 to this defense- yeah, it would be ludicrous mode.