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Topic: #5 Indiana (7-1, 10-1) at #2 Ohio State (7-1, 10-1) Post Game

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medinabuckeye1

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#5 Indiana (7-1, 10-1) at #2 Ohio State (7-1, 10-1) Post Game
« on: November 18, 2024, 10:29:30 AM »
The most anticipated Ohio State vs Indiana game not involving hoops ever. 

As I see it, the game is MUCH more important to the Hoosiers than it is to the Buckeyes.  Part of that is brand but a BIG part of it is that Ohio State has played a MUCH better schedule.  Even if the Buckeyes lose this, they still own a road win over #4 Penn State and their 1-point road loss to #1 Oregon isn't particularly damning. 

For Indiana their home win over Washington is the ONLY game they've played all year against a team with a non-losing record and the Huskies are only 4-4.  Also, Washington is undefeated at home and winless on the road so beating them outside of Seattle hasn't proven all that difficult this year. 

For Indiana, obviously a win would be HUGE but even a close loss would help.  As long as they "look like" they belong on the field with the Buckeyes, they should make the CFP at 11-1 but if they get smoked, I think their schedule and helmet will keep them out.  Thus, the Hoosiers have to at least keep this competitive. 

The history:
Indiana hasn't beaten Ohio State in a LONG time.  The Hoosiers won two straight beating Earle Bruce's last tOSU team in 1987 and John Cooper's first team in 1988.  They tied the Buckeyes in Bloomington a couple years later, in 1990 but since then, 0-29 by an average score of 38-15. 

The Hoosiers are 12-80-5 all-time against the Buckeyes and as crazy as this sounds, that actually understates Ohio State's dominance of this series.  The first six games in the series were played from 1901 through 1913 which was Ohio State's first year in the league.  Those six games were five IU wins and a tie.  Since then: 80-7-4 in favor of the Buckeyes. 

From 1914 through last year the Hoosiers are 0.099 against the Buckeyes but in some good news, they are actually better in Columbus (6-50-3) than Bloomington (1-30-1). 
« Last Edit: November 23, 2024, 03:36:55 PM by ELA »

Cincydawg

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Re: #5 Indiana (10-0/7-0) at #2 Ohio State 9-1/6-1)
« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2024, 10:32:12 AM »
OSU is a 12.5 point favorite, at home, I'll take the Buckeyes to cover handily.  42-17.

FearlessF

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Re: #5 Indiana (10-0/7-0) at #2 Ohio State 9-1/6-1)
« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2024, 10:47:48 AM »
I think a 1-loss Hoosier team is more likely to make the playoff than a 2-loss Buckeye team

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Cincydawg

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Re: #5 Indiana (10-0/7-0) at #2 Ohio State 9-1/6-1)
« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2024, 11:17:55 AM »
At the final ranking, some really tough choices will have to be made.  Folks will complain about it.

FearlessF

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Re: #5 Indiana (10-0/7-0) at #2 Ohio State 9-1/6-1)
« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2024, 11:56:46 AM »
well, if the SEC complains about it, there will be changes
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MrNubbz

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Re: #5 Indiana (10-0/7-0) at #2 Ohio State 9-1/6-1)
« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2024, 12:03:53 PM »

SHUT-UP-YOU


« Last Edit: November 18, 2024, 12:10:22 PM by MrNubbz »
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MrNubbz

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Re: #5 Indiana (10-0/7-0) at #2 Ohio State 9-1/6-1)
« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2024, 12:18:56 PM »
In the games I've seen, it's the Hoosier line play. They've damn near manhandled teams on both sides of the ball - except for the 2nd half vs M. Indiana has been very good - both under Wilson and Tom Allen before, but they never had the horses to go four quarters, where they would falter and fade. Doesn't seem to be that way now, I'm not sure why (coaching/talent bump). They seem to take control early, so maybe teams give up and they don't fight for all four quarters. Offense stays balanced, skill players seem to play with a lot of passion and determination.

IMO, stretch & stifle them early and keep them from getting in a rythm. The Buckeyes need to show that it's not going to be a score-for-score type matchup that goes into the fourth quarter. It's the game before M, which is hard emotionally, but setting precedence absolutely needs to happen.The Hoosiers seemingly tired late vs M in a close match up that Moore ended up dashing their chances

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SFBadger96

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Re: #5 Indiana (10-0/7-0) at #2 Ohio State 9-1/6-1)
« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2024, 12:55:10 PM »
I put my main comment in the weekly rankings thread.

Indiana is a much better team than I thought they were, but they are still playing the biggest of the big boys in the conference--in Columbus. This game is unlike any they have played this season. OSU has played two huge games already: at Oregon and at Penn State. Against common opponents:
both destroyed Michigan State in East Lansing; both dismantled Northwestern somewhere around Chicago, but Nebraska gave OSU a scare in Columbus, and Indiana dominated the Huskers in Lincoln. Indiana's "worst" wins were their two-score win over Maryland, and their 5-point win over Michigan. Ohio State's was the Nebraska debacle, and, of course, the loss at Oregon.

That doesn't make this task look quite so herculean for Indiana. But Indiana's best win was the two-score win over Washington, in Bloomington--a Washington team that hasn't won on the road. Ohio State's win over Penn State in Happy Valley is much more impressive, and dominating Iowa ain't bad--although Iowa doesn't appear especially good on the road.

Should a 1-loss Indiana team make the playoff? Assume they lose in Columbus, but aren't embarassed, and they beat Purdue. 

SuperMario

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Re: #5 Indiana (10-0/7-0) at #2 Ohio State 9-1/6-1)
« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2024, 01:00:05 PM »
It's really tough to grasp how good Indiana is. None of their games have been really close outside of Michigan and Michigan is a pretty awful team offensively. So is Indiana's defense good enough to slow down the Buckeyes offense? Not an easy task with 2 incredible receivers and two incredible running backs. How good is Ohio State's defense? From a stat perspective pretty good, but from a sight perspective have had some weaknesses and have had the benefit of a lot of weak offenses on the schedule. Although they've shut teams down when it actually mattered as well. I think the talent level clearly favors OSU, but there's a fire with the Hoosiers and are a very well coached team. Should be an interesting game. 

MaximumSam

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Re: #5 Indiana (10-0/7-0) at #2 Ohio State 9-1/6-1)
« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2024, 01:01:53 PM »
Definitely worried about the OSU o-line against what has been a pretty strong defensive front. Indiana leads the league in sacks. Indiana also has the bye week and is well coached, so they should be able to scheme up some points. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: #5 Indiana (10-0/7-0) at #2 Ohio State 9-1/6-1)
« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2024, 01:02:07 PM »
I think a 1-loss Hoosier team is more likely to make the playoff than a 2-loss Buckeye team
I disagree but, to an extent, it depends on margins.  

It also depends on which games.  

I'm assuming here that the Buckeyes beat the Hoosiers then lose either to Michigan or to Oregon.  

IMHO, an 11-2 Ohio State with two losses to Oregon EASILY gets in over an 11-1 Indiana with a loss to Ohio State.  

Lets say that Ohio State beats IU then loses to Michigan and PSU beats IU in the tiebreakers such that Ohio State finishes 10-2 with losses to Oregon and Michigan while Indiana finishes 11-1 with a loss to Ohio State.  

The loss to Michigan is problematic because IU beat them but the loss to Oregon isn't because Indiana didn't play anyone that good.  Indiana's best win would be . . . Washington?  Ohio State's would be at Penn State.  Indiana looks much better when looking at losses but Ohio State looks much better when looking at wins.  

That is the situation where I think margins matter.  It is close to a toss-up so if IU lost in Columbus by a small enough margin that it could plausibly be attributed to HFA then IU probably gets in over tOSU but if the Buckeyes smash the Hoosiers (lets say by the 12.5 that they are favored by or more) then I think it is harder to make a case for Indiana because their better record is pretty obviously the product of an easier schedule.  

Cincydawg

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Re: #5 Indiana (10-0/7-0) at #2 Ohio State 9-1/6-1)
« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2024, 01:02:37 PM »
Should a 1-loss Indiana team make the playoff? Assume they lose in Columbus, but aren't embarassed, and they beat Purdue.
This will depend on who else is vying for a spot, including Notre Dame and Army and maybe some others.  Is ND in at 11-1?  Are they better than Indiana?

Will there be five SEC teams included?  (I doubt it.)  If we have four from each major conference, and then the two P5 champions plus a G5, and then Notre Dame, the field starts to get ... done.  So, say we include Ohio State as the champion, Oregon/PSU/Indiana as ALs.  Some pretty decent SEC team will get left out.

Bama/Texas/Tenn/UGA/Ole Miss/A&M.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: #5 Indiana (10-0/7-0) at #2 Ohio State 9-1/6-1)
« Reply #12 on: November 18, 2024, 01:07:51 PM »
Definitely worried about the OSU o-line against what has been a pretty strong defensive front. Indiana leads the league in sacks. Indiana also has the bye week and is well coached, so they should be able to scheme up some points.
Plus the respect/motivation factors are real.  IU's staff will be telling their kids all week that they are disrespected because they are undefeated, ranked behind the Buckeyes, and a double-digit underdog.  

The other side of that coin is that it can backfire.  If you spend all week hearing that then go on the road and get down 10-0 early (like tOSU did at PSU), you can easily start doubting yourself and that can snowball.  

I don't know what to expect.  The Buckeyes started slow against an awful Northwestern team last week and of course they got down 10-0 early against Penn State.  They REALLY need to avoid that here.  The longer Indiana is in this, the more their confidence builds and Ohio State's doubts as well.  I could see Ohio State getting up early and the wheels coming off for IU but OTOH, if this thing goes into the 4th quarter tied, I think I'd bet on IU.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: #5 Indiana (10-0/7-0) at #2 Ohio State 9-1/6-1)
« Reply #13 on: November 18, 2024, 01:11:39 PM »
Should a 1-loss Indiana team make the playoff? Assume they lose in Columbus, but aren't embarassed, and they beat Purdue.
Given the caveats you listed, I think they are and should be in especially if Ohio State beats Michigan and wins the B1GCG.  In that case, Ohio State might well be #1 in the nation so a close road loss to them shouldn't hurt IU much.  

 

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