While perhaps late October games against Michigan and Ohio State will settle the East, and determine Penn State's playoff fate, this game is plenty scary. Last year in a night game at home the Hawkeyes upset #2 Michigan 14-13, in a defensive slugfest. The Hawkeyes have won their last 4 night games in Kinnick, their last loss coming to Penn State back in 2012, and that was a lousy 4-8 Iowa team that dropped its final six games of the year. Penn State has looked like the most complete team in the conference, but a schedule that already looked fairly weak took another hit when Oklahoma State had their way with a Pitt defense in Heinz Field a week after the Nittany Lion offensive line struggled to block that same Panther front in Happy Valley. Iowa has been far from perfect themselves. A convincing win over what was supposed to be an upstart Wyoming team looks not so impressive now, they pulled out a miracle win over Iowa State, and trailed North Texas in the third quarter before scoring 21 unanswered points. With Akrum Wadley a little dinged up, the Hawkeyes are going to need the Nathan Stanley they saw in Ames. He completed 66% of his passes for 333 yards, 5 touchdowns and no picks. In the Hawkeyes other two games he's completed only 57% of his passes, and averaging 161 ypg. Penn State's offensive line is improving from the disaster it had been, but it still has a ways to go. What Joe Moorhead has done is a better job of scheming around that deficiency, and McSorley has a knack for improvisation. For all of the inconsistencies, the Nittany Lions have only allowed 2 sacks on the year. Better than anyone in the conference other than Minnesota. I think this one will come down to two things. Penn State's ability to hit big plays. They've relied on them already this year, and really going back to last year. They aren't doing a great job sustaining drives. They have the athletes to hit on those plays against Akron, Pitt and Georgia State. They have a talent gap with Iowa, but it is obviously far narrower, and the Hawkeyes are doing as good a job as anyone in the country getting teams off the field. The second factor is that Kinnick night crowd.
IOWA 27, PENN STATE 26