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Topic: #3 Ohio State (3-0, 6-0) at Michigan State (0-3, 2-4) Post Game

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ELA

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#3 Ohio State (3-0, 6-0) at Michigan State (0-3, 2-4) Post Game
« on: October 07, 2022, 01:28:00 PM »
#3 Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0, 5-0) at Michigan State Spartans (0-2, 2-3)
4:00 - East Lansing, MI - ABC
Dantonio was a bit of a thorn in the side of his former employer, winning 3 of 5 from 2011-2015, twice costing Ohio State a shot at a Big Ten and national title, and a handful of other times (2007, 2012, 2016, 2018) keeping the game way closer than it should have been.  So far, Mel Tucker has not done that.  He's lost his first two games against Ryan Day, by a combined score of 108-19.  C.J. Stroud had his worst game of the season last year, with lows in completion percentage, passing yards, and QBR.  Nothing gets you right again like facing this Michigan State secondary, allowing their two Big Ten opponents to complete over 80% of their passes.  Stroud has stuck it to the team, who for a minute, he was leaning towards committing to, before putting on a show at the Elite 11 camp, and dramatically increasing his recruiting profile.  He made his lone 2020 appearance in mop up duty in East Lansing, scoring on a 48 yard run.  Last year he was 32-35 for 432 yards and 6 touchdowns.  Kenneth Walker tried to give it a go despite being injured in that game, and clearly was not healthy.  So maybe that should have been a hint as to exactly what this roster was without him.  Michigan State often comes up the biggest in this series when there are zero expectations.  When both teams are in contention (2013 and 2015 aside) and the Spartans draw all of Ohio State's attention, things tend do go poorly.  But, obviously famously in 1974 and 1998, but several times recently, when Ohio State has reason to overlook Michigan State, they do, and either lose, or let Sparty hang around.  The problem here is that passing game is just too damn good, and Michigan State's secondary is just so damn bad.  I don't think it will be the bloodbath of the past two seasons, but I also don't see Michigan State being within two scores at any point past the first quarter.
OHIO STATE 38, MICHIGAN STATE 17

« Last Edit: October 10, 2022, 12:20:50 PM by ELA »

medinabuckeye1

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Re: #3 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at Michigan State (0-2, 2-3) Game Week
« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2022, 01:32:14 PM »
#3 Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0, 5-0) at Michigan State Spartans (0-2, 2-3)
4:00 - East Lansing, MI - ABC
C.J. Stroud had his worst game of the season last year, with lows in completion percentage, passing yards, and QBR.
OHIO STATE 38, MICHIGAN STATE 17
You meant last week.

ELA

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Re: #3 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at Michigan State (0-2, 2-3) Game Week
« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2022, 01:43:54 PM »
Indeed

medinabuckeye1

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Re: #3 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at Michigan State (0-2, 2-3) Game Week
« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2022, 02:07:14 PM »
#3 Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0, 5-0) at Michigan State Spartans (0-2, 2-3)
4:00 - East Lansing, MI - ABC
OHIO STATE 38, MICHIGAN STATE 17
While Michigan State will always concern me at least somewhat, I think you are being overly optimistic here. Ohio State is first in the league and third nationally at 530 yards per game while MSU is third-to-last in the league defensively, allowing over 400 yards per game. That just has bloodbath written all over it.

I'll always be concerned about MSU because of the games you mentioned. Over on 11 Warriors Ramzy referred to it as "decades of reinforced post-traumatic stress".

It is interesting that over the last five years this game hasn't been close. The Buckeyes have obliterated a bad MSU team (52-12 in 2020), good MSU teams (56-7 in 2021 and 48-3 in 2017) while winning relatively comfortably against mediocre MSU teams (34-10 in 2019 and 26-6 in 2018). Note that the two closest games were when MSU was mediocre not particularly good or bad.

At this point it appears that mediocrity is a stretch goal for the Spartans. Their two wins came not just against MAC teams but against what appear to be two of the worst teams in the MAC and their three-straight losses haven't been particularly close. I don't think this year's MSU is good enough to keep this close even if the Buckeyes have an off day.

ELA

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Re: #3 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at Michigan State (0-2, 2-3) Game Week
« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2022, 02:26:56 PM »
MSU already won the weekend.  True freshman against the nation's #2


https://twitter.com/MSU_MTennis/status/1578433590874214401?s=20&t=vfplsCpRogrtzmykDjq_NQ

Honestbuckeye

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Re: #3 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at Michigan State (0-2, 2-3) Game Week
« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2022, 03:23:59 PM »
Medina will ban me for some of this/ because it is not based on Data, but rather just a hunch. 

Every weekend there’s usually at least one “surprise “outcome in the big 10 and I think this weekend it will be this game.

Ohio State will not beat Michigan State bypassing but rather by running. And this game will be closer than anybody expects because Michigan State will finally play a game much closer to their upside potential than they have all season.

I think the Spartans will hit a couple deep balls for scores and it will be tight most of the way.
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

ELA

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Re: #3 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at Michigan State (0-2, 2-3) Game Week
« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2022, 03:32:56 PM »
And this game will be closer than anybody expects because Michigan State will finally play a game much closer to their upside potential than they have all season.
I think offensively that's certainly possible.  Jayden Reed is hurt (and granted that's a pretty big one guy), but aside from that the offense has been healthy, just underwhelming.  The defense has been destroyed by injuries.  At one point they were missing 7 starters.  The captains of the DL, LB and secondary have not played since the WMU game.  They started a true freshman on the DL last week who wasn't even on the travel list two weeks earlier.  I think this just is the defense.  You take what was at best questionable, and remove over half the starters, it's a disaster

FearlessF

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Re: #3 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at Michigan State (0-2, 2-3) Game Week
« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2022, 04:15:45 PM »
I'm guessing the Buckeye roll in this one

win by 28 or more
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: #3 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at Michigan State (0-2, 2-3) Game Week
« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2022, 05:17:29 PM »
Medina will ban me for some of this/ because it is not based on Data, but rather just a hunch.

Every weekend there’s usually at least one “surprise “outcome in the big 10 and I think this weekend it will be this game.

Ohio State will not beat Michigan State bypassing but rather by running. And this game will be closer than anybody expects because Michigan State will finally play a game much closer to their upside potential than they have all season.

I think the Spartans will hit a couple deep balls for scores and it will be tight most of the way.
I wouldn't ban you even if I could. I don't dislike you or even most of your posts but your take on tOSU is annoying because it never changes, it is always doom and gloom.

I think you simply try to hard to not be or to prove you aren't a homer and you end up overcompensating and being an anti-homer.

You always predict that tOSU will perform less impressively than expected and of course you are right once in a while. The thing about always saying the same thing is that you are bound to be right occasionally.

Here are your pregame takes on tOSU/UW from that game thread:
Quote from: Honestbuckeye 9/19/2022, 3:40:16 PM
May be a good time to play OSU from injury standpoint.

Quote from: Honestbuckeye 9/20/2022, 11:51:42 AM
When you put 2 quality Big Ten Teams on the field- all bets are off. Wisconsin is one of the more physical teams out there. They have the skill to dictate a bit of a game in a phone booth- like ND did with OSU, only with a better and more experienced QB, and a much more talented set of RBs.


Here is you pregame take on tOSU/ND from that game thread:
Notre Dame has the style and the players to slow the game down. They can hold the ball for long periods of time even without scoring.

They also have the defensive personnel and style to make Ohio State Dr. the whole field.

Those things alone point to a tighter game.

I will be happy with a win even if it is 24-21.
You were mostly right on the ND game. The actual MOV of 11 was about even with the spread and considerably less than I expected.

You were wildly wrong about the Wisconsin game.

This time you might be right, broken clocks are right twice a day. Your analysis is equivalent to a broken clock in that it ALWAYS comes up with the same response: Buckeyes will not perform as well as most people expect.

FearlessF

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Re: #3 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at Michigan State (0-2, 2-3) Game Week
« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2022, 05:21:29 PM »
it's not unusual

it's called "sandbagging"
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: #3 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at Michigan State (0-2, 2-3) Game Week
« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2022, 05:28:34 PM »
it's not unusual

it's called "sandbagging"
Frankly there is a lot of it on here. Also, I'm probably more sensitive to it than most because I tabulate the Power Rankings each week. Occasionally someone will say something to suggest that Power Rankings on a message board are a waste due to homerism and I have to correct them. It isn't just @Honestbuckeye , it is typical for the fans or at least a lot of the fans of each team to vote their team lower than everyone else. Just looking at this week's votes:
ELA is the low vote for M and he grew up a Wolverine.
Iowa's low vote is #8 and I think at least one of those is a Hawkeye fan.
Indiana's low vote is from a Hoosier.

FearlessF

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Re: #3 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at Michigan State (0-2, 2-3) Game Week
« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2022, 06:09:15 PM »
I suppose I should start voting and even things out

especially for the Huskers ;)
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: #3 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at Michigan State (0-2, 2-3) Game Week
« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2022, 06:40:35 PM »
I wouldn't ban you even if I could. I don't dislike you or even most of your posts but your take on tOSU is annoying because it never changes, it is always doom and gloom.

I think you simply try to hard to not be or to prove you aren't a homer and you end up overcompensating and being an anti-homer.

You always predict that tOSU will perform less impressively than expected and of course you are right once in a while. The thing about always saying the same thing is that you are bound to be right occasionally.

Here are your pregame takes on tOSU/UW from that game thread:
Quote from: Honestbuckeye 9/19/2022, 3:40:16 PM
May be a good time to play OSU from injury standpoint.

Quote from: Honestbuckeye 9/20/2022, 11:51:42 AM
When you put 2 quality Big Ten Teams on the field- all bets are off. Wisconsin is one of the more physical teams out there. They have the skill to dictate a bit of a game in a phone booth- like ND did with OSU, only with a better and more experienced QB, and a much more talented set of RBs.


Here is you pregame take on tOSU/ND from that game thread:You were mostly right on the ND game. The actual MOV of 11 was about even with the spread and considerably less than I expected.

You were wildly wrong about the Wisconsin game.

This time you might be right, broken clocks are right twice a day. Your analysis is equivalent to a broken clock in that it ALWAYS comes up with the same response: Buckeyes will not perform as well as most people expect.
Who is the Annoying one?

Who is the real doom and gloom?

I am not predicting that Ohio State will under perform at all. If you’ve paid any attention at all you’ll notice that teams have been dropping two deep safeties on Ohio State pretty religiously now and forcing them to work their way down the field with short passes and a running game. You will also notice that they’ve been extremely successful at doing just that. And that’s exactly what I said they needed to change this year and so far they’ve been great with it.

I am actually saying they are going to win, because they’ve proven now they can beat you multiple ways, unlike last year. They can beat you throwing, running, or with Defense.

that’s why if I did vote in the power rankings I would have them number one, and on the national scene I would have them for sure in the top three. Specifically, because they are better than they were last year and have shown that they have improved or fixed their weaknesses.

all I’m saying is that it’s their first road game, against a team that has its back to the wall, ( first real road game in some of their careers).  And you know the Spartans will not want to lose in the same manner as last year so they will try to take away the deep passing game. Ohio State has shown they can still beat you but you and I know those games tend to be a little bit lower scoring or slower moving.  Also, it’s logical to expect the Spartans to try numerous deep shots and if there’s one area where Ohio State has been a little bit suspect, and I emphasize a little bit, it’s been on the deep ball. Reed for MSU could potentially hit on a couple of those.  So even if Michigan State does a good job of making Ohio State Drive the whole field slower, I still predict a big win for Ohio State. How is that doom and gloom?

you on the other hand freak out when a Mac team scores a lucky touchdown or two against our buckeyes.  You said they under performed.

did Georgia under perform when they allowed more points to Kent state than OSU allowed to Toledo?  Did Georgia underperform when they barely got past Missouri?  Or did Missouri and Kent State over perform?

and most importantly- In your national power rankings in your head, don’t you still have Alabama and Georgia both in the top three even though they have both had several games which were not as big of victory margins as was predicted?

if you have paid attention or ever played the game you’ll know that a great season has its ups and downs and that’s actually of benefit.

of course it would be great if Ohio State wins 66-0.  Then they were at least have met your crazy expectations.  And that might happen.

but if the game is a little slower from a scoring standpoint and they end up winning 34 to 20, i’ll be very happy and they will have met my expectations totally.  A team that can win a tough road game 34 to 20 is a much better football team when they so they can win those types of games on the road. 




Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

Mdot21

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Re: #3 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at Michigan State (0-2, 2-3) Game Week
« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2022, 07:44:47 PM »
I tend to think Ohio State is going to blow Michigan State out- but Sparty is a weird team- they always knock off teams they have no business knocking off every year- and this one is at home.

I THINK Ohio State is the best team in the country- and they've been doing this without JSN- which is kinda scary- but I also feel like as much as people bag on Michigan's schedule- OSU has played NO ONE. Notre Dame and Wisconsin flat out suck- Notre Dame lost at home to freaking Marshall and got pushed to the absolute wire at home by a pretty crappy Cal team. Wisconsin lost at home to freaking Wazzu State and got blown out at at home by freaking Illinois and just fired their coach- so yeah. Maryland is A LOT better than people realize this year imo and while Iowa's offense is complete and utter ass- they do have rock solid special teams, a VERY good defense and that was JJ's first ever road start in a TOUGH ass place to play- Kinnick is a MOTHERF*KER to play at- and that game was 27-7 with about 30 seconds left before Iowa scored a garbage time TD vs a prevent defense against Michigan's back-ups.

SO just sayin'. While I do think OSU is legit af this year- they haven't really played anyone. This COULD wind up being closer than any of us think. I really don't know just how good Ohio State is. At least Michigan has faced a legit offense (Maryland) and a legit defense (Iowa). Ohio State has faced nothing so far.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2022, 07:52:20 PM by Mdot21 »

 

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