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In thinking about this, for this year, I think that the expansion to 18 teams (I know that isn't new this year) has really changed how we *SHOULD* look at this at least from about mid-season on.  In past years, once you got to about the middle of the season I think that most people would simply rank the teams by conference record and then tiebreak within that by SoS and *MAYBE* jump a 3-2 team over a 4-1 team because the 3-2 team lost to two REALLY good teams. 

With 18 teams the schedules vary more than ever before so we need to view this in that light.  According to the NYT the SoS rankings "From Wisconsin to Michigan" are:

• Wisconsin Avg TA136 ranking of B1G opponents 26.8, 9 top-50, 6 top-25
• Rutgers, 33.7, 7, 4
• Iowa, 37.1, 7, 4
• Michigan State, 36.3, 7, 3
• Purdue, 35.1, 8, 5
• Northwestern, 35.1, 8, 3
• Penn State, 40.1, 5, 3
• UCLA, 39.1, 8, 3
• Ohio State, 44.1, 6, 4
• Southern California, 43.6, 6, 4
• Oregon, 41.9, 6, 2
• Maryland, 41.2, 5, 3
• Indiana, 40, 4, 3
• Washington, 44.2, 4, 4
• Nebraska, 45, 5, 2
• Minnesota, 48.2, 4, 2
• Illinois, 53.1, 5, 2
• Michigan, 54.4, 4, 2

They have them grouped into a top-tier of UW through NU then a middle tier of PSU through Maryland, and an easiest tier of Indiana through Michigan. 

Of course we have to remember that as the year plays out, this will change as well.  Maybe half of Wisconsin's six preseason AP top-25 opponents will suck and drop out of the poll and by the end of the season their schedule will not look so tough.  Maybe three or four of Michigan's unranked opponents will have spectacular years and wind up ranked and their schedule will not look so easy. 

That said, based on what we know now, a hypothetical 7-5 Wisconsin is probably not just better than a hypothetical 7-5 Illinois, Minnesota, or Nebraska but the Badgers at 7-5 are probably better than any of those teams at 9-3 and maybe even 10-2. 

I also think it depends on your goals.  MSU has an "easier" schedule this year, because they don't play road games at Ohio State and Oregon.  They weren't beating those teams anywhere, so might as well burn 2 road games on them.  If you are an NC contender (at least pre-CFP) that is brutal.  If you are just trying to get to a bowl, you want as many winnable games as possible.  Doesn't matter how hard the hardest games are.  And I think MSU's schedule this year is harder, considering what MSU is trying to do.  Now their two toughest opponents, UM and PSU, are at home.  Wasting two home games there.  The more coin toss games (Iowa, Maryland, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana) are all on the road.  They don't play either of the two clear worst teams (Purdue or Northwestern) at all

Maybe half of Wisconsin's six preseason AP top-25 opponents will suck and drop out of the poll and by the end of the season their schedule will not look so tough.  

Generally this is a solid expectation. My question is: who? It's not going to be Ohio State. Michigan may have some trouble with the new QB, but not that much, and Wisconsin plays in Ann Arbor. That place is a house of horrors for the Badgers even in good years. At Oregon? Oregon will be solid, and with a 1700 mile trip to get there, even if Oregon is just a top 20 team, that will be tough on the Badgers. At Alabama? Alabama will be a tough, top 15 team. 

So: Illinois and Indiana are the two. Will both of them take big steps back? I think one of them will, and I'm guessing Indiana. Then you have Iowa and @Minnesota. Top 25 teams? Probably on the bubble. Minnesota's schedule is likely to make them a top 25 team when Wisconsin plays them at the end of the season. Iowa will be Iowa--it always is.

Bottom line, I doubt this schedule has three of the top 8 teams that are truly not very good. I suspect 7--not 6--of the teams Wisconsin plays will be in the top 25 when Wisconsin plays them. And I think four of those will be beatable--if Wisconsin has truly repaired its line play. Which means Wisconsin will be a top-25 worthy team, if not actually ranked there. And if Wisconsin beats two of them, and beats Washington in Madison, the Badgers likely finish 6-6. 

1. Penn State - Apparently I have failed to make you good folks understand just how good Penn State is this year.  This is the most talented team Penn State has had since 1994.  They are likely to have 12-15 draft picks in the 2026 draft, including as many as 4 in the first round.  15 draft picks would tie the all time record currently held by 2022 Georgia.  They also have perhaps the best offensive and defensive coordinators in CFB.  Their schedule even sets up nicely, with the exception of playing @ OSU.


2. Oregon
3. Ohio State
4. Illinois
5. Michigan
6. USC -feels too low 
7. Nebraska - feels too high 
8. Iowa
9. Indiana
10. Washington
11. Minnesota
12. Wisconsin
13. Rutgers
14. Maryland - Worst coach in the B1G, but they keep him around for some reason
15. UCLA
16. Michigan State
17. Purdue
18. Northwestern