Question for the Michigan fans who watch that team more closely than I do. I have to explain this so give me a few minutes here:
I track all B1G teams by how they did against their league opponents relative to the other eight teams that each opponent played. Michigan finished REALLY well on this metric:
- Last game they beat Ohio State by 3. That is #1 in the B1G and really, by a significant margin. Oregon beat tOSU by 1 but that was in Eugene so if you take HFA into account at 3 points, Michigan's 3 point win in Columbus is theoretically 8 points better than Oregon's 1 point win in Eugene.
- Second-to-last game they beat Northwestern by 44. Some would say that it is "only Northwestern" and Northwestern was bad but nobody else beat them this bad, not even close. Northwestern's next worst losses were by 26 (Iowa), 24 (tOSU), 20 (UWisc), and 19 (UWash).
- Third-to-last game they lost in Bloomington by 5. In a normal year that would be pathetic but this year that was second only to Ohio State (beat them by 23) and much better than the next best results (UWash and UMD lost to the Hoosiers by 14).
So that got me thinking that *maybe* Michigan improved a lot over the course of the season and I just didn't notice. But then I looked at all of their league games and that theory didn't really hold up. Here are all of their league games sequentially with how well Michigan performed relative to each opponents' other eight opponents:
- 3 vs USC
- 3 vs MN
- 7 vs UWash
- 8 vs IL
- 6 vs MSU
- 5 vs Ore
- 2 vs IU
- 1 vs NU
- 1 vs tOSU
So now I'm curious. Was there some reason that Michigan performed so dreadfully in that four game stretch from Washington on October 5 through Oregon on November 2?
To put this in perspective, in the first two and last three games Michigan was 4-1 and their average performance was #2 which is actually better than any of the teams in the league, for reference, the leaders were:
- 2.56 tOSU
- 3.11 Oregon
- 3.22 Penn State
- 3.33 Indiana
However, in the aforementioned four-game stretch they were terrible, going 1-3 with an average performance of 6.5 which is comparable to Northwestern and Maryland.
Everybody has good games and bad games but the chronology here makes me wonder if something was just wrong in that middle stretch.