So, 1 seed almost never loses round 1. I think it happened once, but the odds are, well, I have no calculated them, Captain. Then they face 8/9 where they would be significant favorites. So, they make it to the elite 8 probably 80% of the time, right? Someone here has the stats. A two seed probably makes it 60% of the time, that second game starts to be more iffy of course.
Then things get very iffy, you're playing teams almost as good as you are, right? Your final four odds probably drop into the 50-50 range, or worse.
Then in the final four you face two games that are close to 50-50 games, so your raw odds of winning both are 25%, maybe a bit higher.
So, overall your odds are something like 0.8 x 0.55 x 0.25, if you really are a superb team.
