2024-2025 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

No tier system would have had that one

My working theory is that modern CBB with it's heavy reliance on the three-ball is just going to inherently be more volatile because 3pt shooting percentages are inherently highly variable.  

My example from about a year ago was this:
If @betarhoalphadelta is 6-10 and I am 6-2 then he is ALWAYS going to be 8" taller than me.  I'm never going to have a "good night" where I'm suddenly 6-11.  Thus, I'm always going to struggle in the paint against him because even on a bad night for him / good night for me, he still has an 8" height advantage that I just can't erase.  

With Three point shooting, things are different.  If @ELA is a 50% 3pt shooter and I'm a 25% 3pt shooter there will occasionally be nights when I shoot a higher percentage than he does.  There clearly will not be many of those nights but there will be some.  

I didn't watch last night nor even look up stats so I don't know if that is what happened last night but I do think it is a factor that increases the randomness.  Ohio State is a good example.  The Buckeyes have a sharpshooting freshman and a few other pretty good outside shooters and when they all have a good shooting night, Ohio State is suddenly a S16 quality team that will be a tough out for even the best teams in this league but when they are cold it gets ugly.  

[ELA]

I'd settle for being a 50% FT shooter

[boilerbanger]

Big night overall for home dogs.

Minnesota over Michigan; Northwestern over Maryland; Temple over Memphis; Oregon State over Gonzaga

And the one team we said was a totally different team at home, Nebraska, loses at home to Rutgers, who might be starting to figure something out

Glad we played Rutgers when we did ... and boy did Nebraska prove me wrong rather quickly after my post yesterday ... think they had won 20 or 21 straight at PBA.

[FearlessF]

20

21 would have been a new program record

shit the bed

[CatsbyAZ]

Wow .... Minnesota

https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1880079986905759770

[LetsGoPeay]

It's just a matter of time until Mike Woodson is gone. Discussions are being had as to how it will happen. He'll probably be given a chance to "retire due to health" or just get canned. Given his stubborn arrogance, I'm guessing the latter will be how it plays out. 

[bayareabadger]

My working theory is that modern CBB with it's heavy reliance on the three-ball is just going to inherently be more volatile because 3pt shooting percentages are inherently highly variable. 

My example from about a year ago was this:
If @betarhoalphadelta is 6-10 and I am 6-2 then he is ALWAYS going to be 8" taller than me.  I'm never going to have a "good night" where I'm suddenly 6-11.  Thus, I'm always going to struggle in the paint against him because even on a bad night for him / good night for me, he still has an 8" height advantage that I just can't erase. 

With Three point shooting, things are different.  If @ELA is a 50% 3pt shooter and I'm a 25% 3pt shooter there will occasionally be nights when I shoot a higher percentage than he does.  There clearly will not be many of those nights but there will be some. 

I didn't watch last night nor even look up stats so I don't know if that is what happened last night but I do think it is a factor that increases the randomness.  Ohio State is a good example.  The Buckeyes have a sharpshooting freshman and a few other pretty good outside shooters and when they all have a good shooting night, Ohio State is suddenly a S16 quality team that will be a tough out for even the best teams in this league but when they are cold it gets ugly. 

Is the sport that much more random than say 15 years ago? Or do we just not remember weird upsets?

[medinabuckeye1]

Is the sport that much more random than say 15 years ago? Or do we just not remember weird upsets?

Putting actual data behind this would be a massive undertaking.  

I do have some, I track the number of 13-16 seeds to win at least one game in the NCAAT.  Each tournament is 16 data points.  In the 39 tournaments since expansion (1985-2024 but not 2020 due to COVID):

• 69 out of 624 13-16 seeds won at least one game (11.06%)
• An average of 1.77 13-16 seeds won at least one game each tournament.  
• This has varied from as few as zero (94,00,04,07,17) to as many as 4 (21)

I don't think that 16 datapoints is enough so I also track a 5-year rolling average.  That has varied from as low as 1.00 to as high as 2.40.  Interestingly, it started out high.  The average number per tournament for the five tournaments from 1985-1989 was 2.00 and it stayed at at least 1.60 up through the five years from 1995-1999.  Then in the early 2000's it dropped and bottomed out at an average of just one 13-16 seed winning per tournament for the five years from 2000-2004 and again for 2003-2007.  It was 1.40 or below for each five year period from 1999-2003 through 2007-2011.  

Recently the average number of 13-16 seeds winning at least one game on average over five years has climbed over 2.00 and hit an all-time high of 2.40 for the five tournaments from 2018-2023 (2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023).  

By that metric, yes the sport is dramatically more random that it was 20 years ago.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Recently the average number of 13-16 seeds winning at least one game on average over five years has climbed over 2.00 and hit an all-time high of 2.40 for the five tournaments from 2018-2023 (2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023). 

By that metric, yes the sport is dramatically more random that it was 20 years ago. 

Which tracks well with your hypothesis. It's a hard thing for smaller schools to find 6'6" chiseled athletes with legs made of flubber who can play above the rim. There just aren't that many of them out there, and they get recruited by the big schools. It's easier for them to find some smaller and less athletic kids who can't do everything a P4 team's basketball player needs to do, but they CAN shoot the lights out of the gym and hustle. 

And all it takes is a hot shooting night for that team to scare the hell out of, and sometimes beat, the school with the athletes. Especially when the big schools have ALSO used the same analytics and built teams around the 3 ball because they need it to compete with the other big schools ALSO doing that. A team built to dominate in the paint can usually count on that day in day out. A team relying on the 3 ball can just have an awful shooting night every once in a while. 

[bayareabadger]

Yeesh. Tough beat for Buckeyes basketball, nice rebound for IU. 

[CatsbyAZ]

UCLA Basketball game last night, VS Iowa.

I'm fortunate to be buddies with a UCLA alum who lives near campus, which makes for easy parking, easy walk to campus, easy place to crash after a few postgame rounds at the campus sports bars - LA made easy!

Though mostly contained at this point, the LA/Venture County fires cast a damper on attendance. The Westwood neighborhood where UCLA is located is adjacent to a major evacuation zone along the 405, and a number of students and neighborhood locals voluntarily left the area. As a result, our seats 4 rows back from courtside seating were only $24. Usually it's closer to $60 just to find room in the nosebleeds.

Coming off a 4 game losing streak, the Bruins outmanned an Iowa team that remained a step behind through the first half. UCLA shot 11-13 to start the game, building a 57-24 lead at the half, rotating in subs through the second half, and winning 94-70. Iowa looked mostly exhausted and disengaged from the get-go.

Bruins fans are hoping a blowout Vs Iowa will prompt a much needed turnaround as UCLA forges deeper into conference play, however, Tuesday night's home game Vs a ranked Wisconsin team (who beat USC today to go 15-3) will signal a lot more.

[boilerbanger]

Nice west coast trip for Purdue. Wasn't expecting to beat Oregon today.  Winning ugly still counts. 

[bayareabadger]

Barring a bonkers collapse, UW should be in line for 20 wins or more, and that seems just peachy.

Considering some of the portal recruiting failures this year, that would be a pretty nice outcome. And maybe they’ll do more.

[SuperMario]

Nice west coast trip for Purdue. Wasn't expecting to beat Oregon today.  Winning ugly still counts.

They looked good.

Referencing tier 1, I really think it’s Purdue, Illinois and MSU.

Tier 2 - Oregon, Wisconsin 

Michigan falling behind that. Purdue, Illinois and MSU just look a level above everyone else.