2024-2025 B1G Basketball Thread

[bayareabadger]

I assume there’s a tactical value to turning three buy games into an MTE. But I don’t know what it is. 

[medinabuckeye1]

I assume there’s a tactical value to turning three buy games into an MTE. But I don’t know what it is.

I *THINK* that the NCAA rule doesn't actually allow 31 regular season BB games but rather 30 with some proviso that allows and extra one within an MTE.  Ie, if they didn't have the MTE label on it then Ohio State would only be permitted to play 30 regular season BB games.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Rosters are settling into place and Lunardi has a 7/30 update with 10 B1G teams in his projected field.  That sounds like a LOT but with 18 teams in the league now, it isn't quite as big a deal as it sounds like.  

I'll start with his bubble and there are a slew of B1G teams projected to end up there:
Last Four Byes:

• Rutgers

Last Four In:

• Oregon
• Maryland

First Four Out:

• Nebraska

Next Four Out:

• USC
• Iowa
• Wisconsin

If you consider the "bubble" to be the 16 teams in those categories, Lunardi currently projects that our league will include nearly half of the bubble.  Obviously this is ridiculously early but that sure would make for an exciting B1G Tournament with a slew of teams on the edge.  

B1G teams Lunardi currently projects to make the Big Dance:

• #4 Purdue
• #5 Indiana
• #6 UCLA
• #7 Michigan State
• #7 Illinois
• #8 Ohio State
• #8 Michigan
• #10 Rutgers
• #11 Oregon (play in vs Villanova)
• #11 Maryland (play in vs Pitt)

Only four B1G teams do not appear anywhere in Lunardi's projection (neither in the field nor first nor next four out):

• Penn State
• Northwestern
• Minnesota
• Washington

It would be exciting to have that many bubble teams and 10 in the Tournament but man those seedings are rough.  

Fully half of our projected Tournament teams are on the dreaded 7-10 lines where making the second weekend is a near-fantasy.  The problem, of course, is threefold.  First, the opening game is a struggle against a roughly equal team.  Second, #1's and #2's are REALLY good.  Third, because #1's and #2's are REALLY good, the 7-10 seeds are extremely unlikely to catch a break in the second round.  

Here are the historical numbers:

• #7's are 96-60 against #10's in the first round, .615
• #8's are 74-82 against #9's in the first round, .474
• #10's are 60-96 against #7's in the first round, .385
• That adds up to an average of 2.56 teams from this seed grouping advancing to the second round.  

Second round:

• #7's have a 145/156 chance (93%) of facing a #2 and only 29/156 #7's (19%) have made the second weekend 
• #8's have a 154/156 chance (99%) of facing a #1 and only 16/156 #8's (10%) have made the second weekend
• #10's have a 145/156 chance (93%) of facing a #2 and only 24/156 #10's (15%) have made the second weekend

The #11's theoretically have a better chance to make the S16 but both of ours are projected play-in teams so that cuts that down by 50%.  

#4's, #5's, and #6's have it easier but one of each historically means two making the second round, one making the second weekend, and nobody winning anything beyond that.  

[MaximumSam]

I've been going through the rosters in the B1G and honestly, making any sort of prediction is tough as hell. Purdue seems like the safest bet due to history and having a returning backcourt, but even that I would write in pencil. 

[ELA]

https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1818683102027563266

[MaximumSam]

https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1818683102027563266

Anyone go to this? Indy is most convenient location for me (though Vegas is certainly intriguing). Can you get a pass to watch all the games or does that get too expensive?

[847badgerfan]

I've never been.

I know @medinabuckeye1 has been. He should know.

[medinabuckeye1]

I've never been.

I know @medinabuckeye1 has been. He should know.

I went twice.  

I went to it in Chicago in 2015 and I remember the year mostly because I'm a geek and Pi Day (3/14) that year was THE Pi Day because it was 3.1415 and at 9:26 that morning my (then) g/f (now wife) and I were having pie at some bakery in Chicago so it was Pi, 3.1415926.  Also, that year Pi Day was a Saturday and Chicago does their big St. Pat's celebration on the Saturday prior to St. Pat's so we got to see the river turn green on Pi Day.  

I also went when it was in NYC in 2018.  

As far as tickets I did it both ways.  In Chicago my wife and I got two all-session passes.  We met up with @nuwildcat I think it was on Thursday night.  We skipped the Wednesday games (drove in to Chicago on Thursday).  Chicago had free busses running from downtown (near where we and most everybody else was staying) out to the United Center so that was nice.  We skipped the Wednesday games (11-14 and 12-13). 

Ohio State didn't play until Thursday evening so we skipped the Thursday day games (8-9, 5-12/13).  We got there part way through #7 Indiana's win over #10 Northwestern and watched that and then #6 Ohio State's win over #11 Minnesota.  

Friday we went to the day games.  #1 Wisconsin beat #9 Michigan and #4 Purdue beat #13 Penn State.  Then in the evening #2 Maryland beat #7 Indiana and my #6 Buckeyes lost to #3 Michigan State.  

Saturday there are only two games so after having Pi, watching the Parade, and watching the river turn green, we watched #1 Wisconsin beat #4 Purdue and #3 MSU beat #2 Maryland then had an evening out in Chicago.  

Sunday we did things around Chicago in the morning and up through lunchtime then watched a VERY exciting OT game in which #1 Wisconsin beat #3 MSU.  OT was fun but a little annoying for me because we were driving home immediately after the game and United Center to my driveway is almost 6 hours not counting arena traffic and Chicago traffic so as the 2:30 CG stretched beyond 4:30 our ETA to home was getting later and later.  

For the NYC Tournament we didn't buy all-session tickets because we didn't arrive until late Friday and we did a lot of stuff around NYC in lieu of going to some of the games.  We got to NYC during #2 Ohio State's loss to #7 PSU so I only got to see part of one tOSU game.  Then we watched #3 Purdue's win over #14 Rutgers.  I went to both games on Saturday (#5 M over #1 MSU and #3 PU over #7 PSU) but my wife passed.  Then we skipped the CG on Sunday because MSG to my driveway is over seven hours and the CG was later that year due to the Tournament being a week early.  The CG didn't start until 4:30 so it would have ended at about 6:30 and even without traffic issues that means getting home after midnight.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Updated with the final OOC game (Auburn in Atlanta on December 14:

OOC:

• Mon 11/4 N, Texas in Vegas
• Mon 11/11 H, YSU
• Fri 11/15 A, aTm
• Tue 11/19 H, Evansville
• Fri 11/22 H, Campbell
• Mon 11/25 H, Green Bay
• Fri 11/29 H, Pitt
• Sat, 12/14 N, Auburn
• Tue 12/17 H, Valpo
• Sat 12/21 N, Kentucky at MSG in NYC
• Sun 12/29 H, Indiana State

Conference:

• @ IU
• vs IU
• @ UMD
• vs UMD
• @ UNL
• vs UNL
• vs Iowa
• vs Michigan
• vs MSU
• vs NU
• vs OR
• vs RU
• vs WA
• @ IL
• @ MN
• @ PSU
• @ PU
• @ UCLA
• @ USC
• @ WI

Now here it is based on last year's NET rankings:

• #3 Purdue, Away
• #5 Auburn, Neutral
• #13 Illinois, Away
• #18 Kentucky, Neutral
• #21 Wisconsin, Away
• #24 MSU, Home
• #28 Indiana State, Home
• #30 Texas, Neutral
• #33 UNL, Away
• #33 UNL, Home
• #40 Pitt, Home
• #45 aTm, Away
• #53 NU, Home
• #59 OR, Home
• #62 Iowa, Home
• #69 Washington, Home
• #82 UMD, Away
• #82 UMD, Home
• #86 Penn State, Away
• #88 USC, Away
• #89 MN, Away
• #98  IU, Away
• #98 IU, Home
• #103 RU, Home
• #107 UCLA, Away
• #131 YSU, Home
• #133 M, Home
• #203 Evansville, Home
• #227 Green Bay, Home
• #302 Valpo, Home
• #304 Campbell

I'm reasonably happy with the OOC: 

• Kentucky is obviously a blueblood. 
• ISU was good last year (no idea what they have coming back).
• Texas is a good program for us to play (similarly situated in being a state 'flagship' that is clearly more into football but has a decent BB history). 
• Pitt is a good program and local enough that they'll bring some fans and Buckeye fans can travel there for the return game next year. 
• aTm is an ok series but I'd rather have Texas or Florida or Oklahoma. 
• YSU makes sense because you need some cupcakes and they are in-state so they'll bring some fans.  I knew a lot of YSU grads that were mostly all Ohio State fans nationally but YSU fans locally so for them, going to Columbus for a YSU/tOSU BB game is a win/win.  Either their alma-mater wins or the school they root for wins. 
• Evansville makes no sense to me.  It is in Indiana which is a neighboring state but Evansville is in the far SW corner of Indiana so it is a 5+ hour drive that I'm guessing nearly none of their fans will make. 
• Green Bay is worse than Evansville.  Worse team and further away. 
• Valparaiso is in the NW corner of Indiana, practically a Chicago suburb and 4.5 hours from Columbus so almost as far as Evansville and a worse team. 
• Campbell is a horrible team and in NC so not remotely close enough to expect a meaningful number of their fans to make the trek to Columbus. 

There are PLENTY of in-state small-conference schools:

• #23 Dayton
• #37 Cincy
• #108 Akron
• #130 Toledo
• #131 YSU (already on schedule)
• #139 OhioU
• #171 Kent
• #196 Cleveland State
• #228 Bowling Green (hi @SuperMario )
• #238 Miami, OH

Dayton or Cincy might well demand a H&H but I think the others would be thrilled to play in Columbus for the typical fee.  If Ohio State has some hang-up about playing in-state schools for recruiting reasons or whatever fine, make a deal with Michigan or MSU:  We'll host three three directional-Michigan's, they host three Ohio MAC schools. 

Above updated to include all 11 OOC games.  

I'm very happy with this schedule.  Six of the 11 OOC games are against teams that finished in the top-45 of the NET last year.  Of those, three are neutral court games (Kentucky at MSG in NYC, Auburn in Atlanta, and Texas in Vegas) while two (Pitt and ISU) are at home and one (aTm) is on the road.  The Buckeyes are also playing five power-conference teams OOC:  Four from the SEC (Auburn, Kentucky, Texas, aTm) and one from the ACC (Pitt).  

[ELA]

MSU playing Bowling Green, with former player Tum Tum Nairn on staff.

Hes a fast riser, and I like that hes doing it outside of Izzos umbrella.  I wouldnt be shocked if hes MSUs next head coach.  Izzo is going to designate his successor, for better or worse. 

[ELA]

You either die a hero, or live long enough to be the chaperone wearing Tommy Bahama in Spain

[ELA]

Sounds like having a real point guard for the first time in 5 years is doing a ton for the offense.

That said, we have a true PG, a solid backup PG, and I like our athleticism at the wings and inside, but I am worried whether we have tim protection or 3 point shooting.  You know, the things NBA teams build their whole roster around

[847badgerfan]

Wisconsin non-conference. I had to look up where Greenbrier was. Looks like a nice area. Not sure how to get there easily.

[ELA]

Wisconsin non-conference. I had to look up where Greenbrier was. Looks like a nice area. Not sure how to get there easily.

You can't