Two other things on the concept of a high risk/reward defense paired with Ohio State's typically powerful offenses:
First,
@Honestbuckeye noted above that last year tOSU's defense was 6th nationally in forcing three-and-outs and 115th in allowing 40+ yard plays. While I'm comfortable with the trade off, improvement is obviously needed. Being 6th in three-and-outs is about where we need to be but 115th is terrible. There are only around 130 teams so that is approaching the bottom 10%. Improving to around average in that category would probably mean one less 40+ yard play per game. Apply that to the closeish wins and the losses last year:
- The 21-10 win over ND becomes a borderline blowout at 21-3.
- The 44-31 win over PSU becomes a borderline blowout at 44-24.
- The 42-41 loss to UGA becomes a win.
- In theory the 45-23 loss to Michigan simply becomes a less embarrassing 38-23 loss but in practice the game is closer the whole way which could change the overall outcome.
Say you take away Michigan's first TD (a 69 yard TD pass on third-and-nine). If that is a three-and-out Ohio State gets the ball, likely in decent position up 10-3. Even ignoring the potential impact on early momentum, Michigan never takes a first-half lead and trails 20-10 instead of 20-17 at the half.
Instead of Michigan's early fourth quarter TD giving them what turned out to be an insurmountable two-score (11point) lead, it only gives them a four point lead at 24-20.
When Ohio State faces 4th and goal at the four midway through the fourth quarter instead of being compelled to kick a FG to make it a one score game they have a choice, either:
- Kick a FG to bring it within one so that a FG wins it, a TD wins if M kicks a FG, or a TD and 2pt conversion sends it to OT even if M gets a TD, or
- Go for the TD and the lead.
That changes the last part of the game immensely. Instead of Ohio State playing desperate because the situation forces desperation while Michigan can relax and protect their big lead, the game becomes a dogfight with pressure on BOTH sides not just one.
Second, I am somewhat concerned that the high risk/reward defense may lead to unexpected outcomes. Hypothetically let's say the tOSU, PSU, and M are all about even. Then in theory Ohio State's games against both should be close but the high risk/reward may not payoff evenly across games. Instead of say a close loss to one and a close win over the other, tOSU could end up blowing one out and getting blown out by the other.