2023 Ohio State Season Thread

[MrNubbz]

Irish fans are worried...

https://thespun.com/college-football/notre-dame-fans-react-to-concerns-about-ohio-state-invading-stadium


https://fightingirishwire.usatoday.com/2023/07/06/podcast-host-any-fan-selling-ohio-state-tickets-an-absolute-loser/

Touchdown Jesus is calling home his prodigal son's

[Cincydawg]

Yeah, UGA did that back when also.  I almost bought a ticket around $400 and figured I'd wait for the price to come down ... went up, a lot.

[FearlessF]

I have this poster framed with my game ticket
Rabid Rattlesnake Boy and my brother were with me

[medinabuckeye1]

In a discussion of PSU's schedule I noticed that prior to their game in Columbus, PSU has:

• UMASS, literally the worst team in FBS last year
• Off week
• Northwestern, a team with scandal and an unscheduled coaching change. 

I see this as a nightmare for Ohio State because I think that PSU will have a very good team this year and giving them three extra weeks to prepare is not good for Ohio State. 

[847badgerfan]

I have no idea what to expect from Northwestern this year.

[medinabuckeye1]

On Ohio State's schedule in general:

• At Indiana, 9/2
• Vs YSU, 9/9
• Vs WKU, 9/16
• At ND, 9/23
• Off, 9/30
• Vs Maryland, 10/7
• At Purdue, 10/14
• Vs PSU, 10/21
• At Wisconsin, 10/28
• At Rutgers, 11/4
• Vs MSU, 11/11
• Vs Minnesota, 11/18
• At Michigan, 11/25

There is a LOT to be concerned about here. I don't like the new QB having his first start on the road but if you are going to do that, at Indiana in "Horseshoe-West" is the best place so should be ok.

I don't *THINK* Notre Dame will be elite but they are certainly a good enough team to take out the Buckeyes, particularly at their place.

Purdue has an uncanny knack for taking out even vastly superior Ohio State teams and that game is at their place with the added danger of looking ahead to what could be a GameDay, top-10 or even top-5 matchup with Penn State, I just see that as dangerous. 

Penn State, see above, effectively has four weeks to prep for Ohio State. 


Both Penn State and Wisconsin are typically tough, physical games so having then back-to-back is not ideal, to put it mildly.

Then there is THE GAME. The situation here is a bit unusual in that both teams/staffs/ fan fanbases probably feel "behind" right now. Ohio State does because they've lost two straight and, with the 2020 game canceled, the Buckeyes haven't won since 2019. 

From Michigan's perspective the two straight wins are great, of course, but I would guess that they are viewed only as the first steps in overcoming a 2-17 record in the 19 games before that. 

Even ignoring Ohio State's vacated 2010 win and with the two straight Michigan wins, the Wolverines are still only 4-16 in the last 20 games (22 years). Michigan hasn't won three straight since 1995-1997 when John Cooper and Lloyd Carr were on the sidelines. Coincidentally (or maybe not), Michigan's last NC came in the third of those years.

[medinabuckeye1]

I have no idea what to expect from Northwestern this year.

I don't think anyone does, but I don't think it will be pretty.

[FearlessF]

hopefully not as bad as Coach Prime

[medinabuckeye1]

Ohio State offense in general, position groups:

WR:
This is undoubtedly the strongest group on the team. They "lose" JSN but he hardly played in 2022 so when comparing to last year that is basically a non-event. They return eight letter winners including Biletnikoff contenders Marvin Harrison Jr and Emeka Egbuka. They also return Julian Fleming and Xavier Johnson who contributed substantially last year so to say that Ohio State is loaded at WR is an understatement. 

TE:
They return last year's starter, Cade Stover, along with a host of experienced backups so this should be a position of strength as well.  

Oline:
This is a concern. They only return two starters (a guard and a tackle) so they'll be breaking in a new center, guard, and tackle. 

QB:
The Buckeyes have had an amazing run of QB's with seemingly little or no drop-off from one to the next and Ohio State fans can only hope that continues with the transition to (probably) McCord.

RB:
This *SHOULD* be a position of strength but that was what I thought last year and it didn't work out. Last year's initial top-two of Henderson and Williams return again and if they (or at least one of them) can stay on the field unlike last year, this position will be substantially improved over last year. 

Offense in general:
It is a testament to how spoiled we tOSU fans are that last season's Offense feels kinda "meh". They were second nationally in both yards and points per game and that feels disappointing because we expected and hoped for so much more. 

Going into last season I expected JSN and Henderson to be elite players, possibly at or close to best-in-the-nation at their respective positions (WR and RB). The fact that Ohio State's offense was as good as they were without those guys is a testament to how good the recruiting and development has been lately. 

This year it all depends on the performance of the new QB and the new Olinemen. They should have the best WR room in the country, elite TE's, and elite RB's to help them along so if they play up to their stars, they'll be one of the best offenses in the country again. If they don't it could be bad. All those great WR's can't throw themselves the ball and the RB's need some guys blocking up front. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Defense:
Dline:
This should be improved and a strength of the team. They return three starters so that is all or 3/4 depending on alignment and they also return a bunch of experienced backups so this position should be a strength. 

Lbers:
They have two returning starters out of 3/4 depending on alignment and this position was pretty solid last year so it should be a strength once again.  

DB's:
They return two starters out of 4/5 so there is a bit more turnover here. I felt that this was the weakest link last year mostly due to mental miscues so hopefully that will improve. 

Defense in general:
I don't think that Ohio State is going back to Tressel-style bend-but-don't-break defenses that just smother opponents and play a field position game. I think that Knowles' style is more of a high risk/reward scheme where the Buckeyes are going to give up some big plays but they are also going to make some big gamechanging plays. With the high powered offenses that Ohio State has been fielding, a high risk/reward defense is probably a great fit. 

[medinabuckeye1]

What I expect in general overall:

I think the the defense will be "better" but even assuming that I am correct there is a big difference between marginal improvement and best-in-the-country. I expect more than marginal improvement but probably not serious contention for best-in-the -country. 

The offense is a complete crapshoot with a new QB and three new Olinemen. The good news is that those new starters at QB and along the Oline have the benefit of phenomenal strength at WR, and very good or elite players at TE and RB as well so the Buckeyes don't need the new guys to be elite to have a very good offense. 

If the defense improves and the offense breaks even, this team probably heads to Ann Arbor in control of their own CFP destiny. OTOH, the schedule could be rough. The early road trip to Notre Dame will be a loss if the new starters aren't ready. Back-to-back games against PSU and Wisconsin are the stuff of nightmares and there is always the possibility of an extra loss or two based on looking ahead/behind, or just because upsets happen. Then the Buckeyes close the season on the road against a team they haven't beaten since before the pandemic. 

There is enough potential that 13-0 heading into the CFP isn't out of the question but there are enough challenges that 8-5 also isn't out of the question. 

[Mdot21]

10-3 is an absolute worst case scenario for OSU.

imo no way they go 8-5. The OL would have to be a complete disaster PLUS McCord would have to truly suck for that imo. Don't think either of those things happen, and virtually no way both those things happen.

TE group is rock solid. WR group is flat out loaded- easily best in the B1G and probably the nation. RB group will 100% vie for 2nd best in the B1G with Penn State so long as Henderson and Williams can both stay relatively healthy- which as you know, was far from the case in 2022. 

They will get better on defense. Best in the nation kinda defense? I doubt that- but they return quite a bit of talent and will be better than they were a year ago in year 2 of Knowles' system imo- and they were pretty good last year on that side of the ball.

[medinabuckeye1]

10-3 is an absolute worst case scenario for OSU.

imo no way they go 8-5. The OL would have to be a complete disaster PLUS McCord would have to truly suck for that imo. Don't think either of those things happen, and virtually no way both those things happen.

As an Ohio State fan, it is tempting to believe this. Ohio State's recent history supports it. It has been almost 20 years since an Ohio State team lost more than three games in a year without being in an unscheduled coaching transition:

• 2022, 11-2 CFP appearance
• 2021, 11-2 Rose Bowl win
• 2020, 7-1 CFPCG appearance
• 2019, 13-1 CFP appearance
• 2018, 13-1 Rose Bowl win
• 2017, 12-2 Cotton Bowl win
• 2016, 11-2 CFP appearance
• 2015, 12-1 Fiesta Bowl win
• 2014, 14-1 NC
• 2013, 12-2 Orange Bowl appearance
• 2012, 12-0, postseason ban
• 2011, 6-7 with interim coach
• 2010, 12-1 Sugar Bowl win
• 2009, 11-2 Rose Bowl win
• 2008, 10-3 Fiesta Bowl appearance
• 2007, 11-2 BCSNCG appearance
• 2006, 12-1 BCSNCG appearance
• 2005, 10-2 Fiesta Bowl win
• 2004, 8-4 Alamo Bowl win
• 2003, 11-2 Fiesta Bowl win
• 2002, 14-0 NC

In the 21 years from 2002-2022 Ohio State has as many NC's (two 02 and 14) as regular seasons with more than two losses (two 04 and 11).


As an Ohio State fan of course I love this. In the last ~20 years Ohio State has been at least in the NC conversation deep into November almost every year, more than any other school.

OTOH, I'm old enough to have perspective. I remember the team going 7-5, 8-4, and 6-6 in the three years immediately preceeding what I listed above. I remember Cooper going 2-10-1 against your team from 1988-2000. I vaguely remember Ohio State having at least three losses every year for 13 straight years from 1980-1992.

In short, crap happens and it can happen in Columbus too.

My point is that while I've obviously enjoyed the incredible run of success that Ohio State has been on basically since my freshman year on campus (1993)*, I'm old enough to know that a minimum of 10-2 is not automatic, it isn't a birthright.

In short, crap happens and it can happen in Columbus too.

Ohio State's last (I think it is) four or five QB's have jumped in and looked like veterans practically from day one and I hope that continues but it isn't guaranteed.

In short, crap happens and it can happen in Columbus too.

New offensive linemen sometimes look like they are new.

In short, crap happens and it can happen in Columbus too.

Position groups that look rock solid in the preseason sometimes unravel (see tOSU RB's last year) due to injuries and other issues.

In short, crap happens and it can happen in Columbus too.

As I see it, Ohio State has four games against teams that will either be favored or slight underdogs against the Buckeyes. Those opponents are:

• At Notre Dame on 9/23
• Vs Penn State on 10/21
• At Wisconsin on 10/28
• At Michigan on 11/25

8-4 has to be considered a serious and realistic possibility because even a very good Ohio State team could lose those four games.

I've also seen a lot of upset losses that are inexplicable in retrospect in my time. Just in the last few years:

• The 2018 Ohio State team that won the Rose Bowl and finished 13-1 lost 49-20 to a Purdue team that lost SEVEN games.
• The 2017 Buckeyes that won the Cotton Bowl and finished 12-2 lost 55-24 to an Iowa team that lost five games.
• The 2015 Ohio State team that won the Fiesta Bowl and finished 12-1 and returned most of the contributors from the prior season's NC lost at home to an MSU squad that wasn't as good as their 12-2 final record makes them look.
• The 2014 Buckeyes lost at home by two TD's to a VaTech squad that finished with six losses. That team went on to beat Alabama in their own backyard and win the NC.
• The 2009 Ohio State team that won the Rose Bowl and finished 11-2 lost to a Purdue team that lost SEVEN games.

Almost nobody would seriously argue that any of the five teams listed above were better than the Ohio State team that they beat but that doesn't change the fact that all five DID beat the Buckeyes. Some of those losses cost the Buckeyes dearly:

• In the last pre-bowl poll in 2018 the Buckeyes were #5. If they had defeated a 6-7 Purdue team they'd have been in the playoffs.
• In the last pre-bowl poll in 2017 Ohio State was #5. If they had beaten a mediocre Iowa team they'd have been in the playoffs.
• The 2015 loss to MSU cost the Buckeyes a spot in the B1GCG that was effectively a NC Quarter-final.

In short, crap happens and it can happen in Columbus too.

Four losses to relative equals and an upset somewhere along the way is a 7-5 season and that could happen even with a pretty good team. I'm not saying I think that WILL happen, just that the possibility of more that three losses cannot be dismissed out of hand.

*Above I stated that the incredible run started in 1993. Some people might take issue with that because, with Cooper still in charge from 1993-2000 the records against Michigan (2-6) and in bowls (3-4) were not great. That is true, but the 1993, 95, 96, 97, and 1998 teams were in the NC conversation deep into November and Cooper's teams won a slew on league titles in that stretch. After, as recounted above, losing at least three games each year for 13 years from 1980-1992, Cooper's teams from 1993-1998 only lost three or more in a year twice.

[Honestbuckeye]

You’re right Medina- you just don’t know until they play. 

Trepidation:  new QB, 3 new OL, a defense was 115th in giving up 40+ yard plays, challenging schedule 

Optimism: great RBs, Great WRs, a staff known for QB development, many good defenders returning, a number of recruited studs on the roster that nobody has heard of yet ( especially on defense and at WR), a defense that was 6th in forcing 3 and outs.  

Should be a fun ride.