2023 Ohio State Season Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

a defense was 115th in giving up 40+ yard plays,  a defense that was 6th in forcing 3 and outs.

I cut up your post to get to these two items:

• Defense was bad about giving up big plays, and
• Defense was good at forcing three-and-outs.

IMHO, that isn't coincidental and it makes sense for THIS team.

If you think back to the Tressel era, he mostly had bend-but-don't-break type defenses that forced opposing offenses to work their way down the field a few yards at a time. That paired well with Tressel's unexciting offenses to create a suffocating field position strategy. 

Recently Ohio State has had MUCH higher powered offenses. I pointed out upthread that the Buckeyes were second in the Nation in both yards and points per game last year and it felt kinda "meh". Here is why:

• 2nd in ypg, 2nd in ppg in 2022
• 1st in ypg, 1st in ppg in 2021
• 7th in ypg, 11th in ppg in 2020 (odd, covid season without stat-stuffer OOC games)
• 4th in ypg, 3rd in ppg in 2019
• 2nd in ypg, 8th in ppg in 2018
• 7th in ypg, 6th in ppg in 2017

The Buckeyes have been top-11 in both ypg and ppg for six years.

With an offense that good, I think that a high risk/reward defense is a great fit.

[medinabuckeye1]

Why would Henderson leave.  He will be RB1 on a top Ten team next season. 

people ( including many OSU fans) completely forgot how good he is.  True- the key is staying healthy.    We haven’t actually seen that version since the first 5 games of 21.  He was something special before he got hurt.

I think this injury hurt Ohio State more than even the JSN injury in 2022. It can be hard to see it because, statistically, Ohio State's running game was pretty good in 2022. I think a lot of that, however, was due to two factors:

• Ohio State running a lot against tired and demoralized opponents in the second half of blowout wins, and
• Ohio State's better opponents being forced to focus on stopping the Buckeyes' powerful passing attack and basically just stopping the tOSU running game without worrying much about it. 

As a practical matter, at least by the end of the season when Henderson was out AND Williams was less than full strength the Buckeyes' rushing game wasn't very good. That made it more feasible for good opponents (like the two that beat Ohio State) to contain Ohio State's passing attack. 

Henderson's stats, first five games of 2021:

• 2 for 15 vs Minnesota 
• 12 for 54 and a TD vs Oregon 
• 24 for 277 and 3TD vs Tulsa
• 8 for 93 and 2TD vs Akron
• 8 for 71 and a TD vs Rutgers 

That is a heck of a start for a true freshman. 

[MrNubbz]

hopefully not as bad as Coach Prime

Has something went wrong that I'm not aware of?

[FearlessF]

with Northwestern?
or the CU Ralphies?

[MrNubbz]

CU you mentioned Prime

[FearlessF]

nothing too serious, just ran off the entire roster after spring camp

[MrNubbz]

I knew that - didn't he work wonders with transfers & recruits?

[medinabuckeye1]

Two other things on the concept of a high risk/reward defense paired with Ohio State's typically powerful offenses:

First, @Honestbuckeye noted above that last year tOSU's defense was 6th nationally in forcing three-and-outs and 115th in allowing 40+ yard plays. While I'm comfortable with the trade off, improvement is obviously needed. Being 6th in three-and-outs is about where we need to be but 115th is terrible. There are only around 130 teams so that is approaching the bottom 10%. Improving to around average in that category would probably mean one less 40+ yard play per game. Apply that to the closeish wins and the losses last year:

• The 21-10 win over ND becomes a borderline blowout at 21-3.
• The 44-31 win over PSU becomes a borderline blowout at 44-24.
• The 42-41 loss to UGA becomes a win.
• In theory the 45-23 loss to Michigan simply becomes a less embarrassing 38-23 loss but in practice the game is closer the whole way which could change the overall outcome.

Say you take away Michigan's first TD (a 69 yard TD pass on third-and-nine). If that is a three-and-out Ohio State gets the ball, likely in decent position up 10-3. Even ignoring the potential impact on early momentum, Michigan never takes a first-half lead and trails 20-10 instead of 20-17 at the half. 

Instead of Michigan's early fourth quarter TD giving them what turned out to be an insurmountable two-score (11point) lead, it only gives them a four point lead at 24-20.

When Ohio State faces 4th and goal at the four midway through the fourth quarter instead of being compelled to kick a FG to make it a one score game they have a choice, either:

• Kick a FG to bring it within one so that a FG wins it, a TD wins if M kicks a FG, or a TD and 2pt conversion sends it to OT even if M gets a TD, or
• Go for the TD and the lead.

That changes the last part of the game immensely. Instead of Ohio State playing desperate because the situation forces desperation while Michigan can relax and protect their big lead, the game becomes a dogfight with pressure on BOTH sides not just one.


Second, I am somewhat concerned that the high risk/reward defense may lead to unexpected outcomes. Hypothetically let's say the tOSU, PSU, and M are all about even. Then in theory Ohio State's games against both should be close but the high risk/reward may not payoff evenly across games. Instead of say a close loss to one and a close win over the other, tOSU could end up blowing one out and getting blown out by the other.

[FearlessF]

I knew that - didn't he work wonders with transfers & recruits?

yes, he will have talent
the issue will be that much of that talent will only get fall camp to prepare for the early season games vs TCU and UNL

[MrNubbz]

"He should have armed himself"
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[Honestbuckeye]

Two other things on the concept of a high risk/reward defense paired with Ohio State's typically powerful offenses:

First, @Honestbuckeye noted above that last year tOSU's defense was 6th nationally in forcing three-and-outs and 115th in allowing 40+ yard plays. While I'm comfortable with the trade off, improvement is obviously needed. Being 6th in three-and-outs is about where we need to be but 115th is terrible. There are only around 130 teams so that is approaching the bottom 10%. Improving to around average in that category would probably mean one less 40+ yard play per game. Apply that to the closeish wins and the losses last year:

• The 21-10 win over ND becomes a borderline blowout at 21-3.
• The 44-31 win over PSU becomes a borderline blowout at 44-24.
• The 42-41 loss to UGA becomes a win.
• In theory the 45-23 loss to Michigan simply becomes a less embarrassing 38-23 loss but in practice the game is closer the whole way which could change the overall outcome.

Say you take away Michigan's first TD (a 69 yard TD pass on third-and-nine). If that is a three-and-out Ohio State gets the ball, likely in decent position up 10-3. Even ignoring the potential impact on early momentum, Michigan never takes a first-half lead and trails 20-10 instead of 20-17 at the half.

Instead of Michigan's early fourth quarter TD giving them what turned out to be an insurmountable two-score (11point) lead, it only gives them a four point lead at 24-20.

When Ohio State faces 4th and goal at the four midway through the fourth quarter instead of being compelled to kick a FG to make it a one score game they have a choice, either:

• Kick a FG to bring it within one so that a FG wins it, a TD wins if M kicks a FG, or a TD and 2pt conversion sends it to OT even if M gets a TD, or
• Go for the TD and the lead.

That changes the last part of the game immensely. Instead of Ohio State playing desperate because the situation forces desperation while Michigan can relax and protect their big lead, the game becomes a dogfight with pressure on BOTH sides not just one.


Second, I am somewhat concerned that the high risk/reward defense may lead to unexpected outcomes. Hypothetically let's say the tOSU, PSU, and M are all about even. Then in theory Ohio State's games against both should be close but the high risk/reward may not payoff evenly across games. Instead of say a close loss to one and a close win over the other, tOSU could end up blowing one out and getting blown out by the other.

My educated, guess is that they will actually tilt the other way a little bit this year. What I mean by that is I don’t think they’re going to shoot for as explosive of an offense because I think they’re going to rely even more on their running game, especially earlier in the season, as they break in a new quarterback conversely, I think they will do the same on defense and play a little bit more umbrella versus aggressive.

[847badgerfan]

OSU in Madison is a night game on NBC. 7:30 Eastern.

[medinabuckeye1]

My educated, guess is that they will actually tilt the other way a little bit this year. What I mean by that is I don’t think they’re going to shoot for as explosive of an offense because I think they’re going to rely even more on their running game, especially earlier in the season, as they break in a new quarterback conversely, I think they will do the same on defense and play a little bit more umbrella versus aggressive.

I agree but it isn't just because they have a new QB. If Henderson and Williams are both healthy it would make sense to run more even if the entire passing offense from last year returned. 

Last year (at the end anyway) one of the best passing attacks in the nation and 3rd stringers, converted lbers, waterboys, and cheerleaders running the ball. Even if the passing game is still one of the best in the country hopefully they'll run more simply because the running game isn't a glaring weakness.

[medinabuckeye1]

OSU in Madison is a night game on NBC. 7:30 Eastern.

Oh yay. Coming off of a tough, physical game and heading into a Camp Randall packed to capacity with screaming drunken 🧀 cheeseheads jumping around, sounds like a blast!