10-3 is an absolute worst case scenario for OSU.
imo no way they go 8-5. The OL would have to be a complete disaster PLUS McCord would have to truly suck for that imo. Don't think either of those things happen, and virtually no way both those things happen.
As an Ohio State fan, it is tempting to believe this. Ohio State's recent history supports it. It has been almost 20 years since an Ohio State team lost more than three games in a year without being in an unscheduled coaching transition:
- 2022, 11-2 CFP appearance
- 2021, 11-2 Rose Bowl win
- 2020, 7-1 CFPCG appearance
- 2019, 13-1 CFP appearance
- 2018, 13-1 Rose Bowl win
- 2017, 12-2 Cotton Bowl win
- 2016, 11-2 CFP appearance
- 2015, 12-1 Fiesta Bowl win
- 2014, 14-1 NC
- 2013, 12-2 Orange Bowl appearance
- 2012, 12-0, postseason ban
- 2011, 6-7 with interim coach
- 2010, 12-1 Sugar Bowl win
- 2009, 11-2 Rose Bowl win
- 2008, 10-3 Fiesta Bowl appearance
- 2007, 11-2 BCSNCG appearance
- 2006, 12-1 BCSNCG appearance
- 2005, 10-2 Fiesta Bowl win
- 2004, 8-4 Alamo Bowl win
- 2003, 11-2 Fiesta Bowl win
- 2002, 14-0 NC
In the 21 years from 2002-2022 Ohio State has as many NC's (two 02 and 14) as regular seasons with more than two losses (two 04 and 11).
As an Ohio State fan of course I love this. In the last ~20 years Ohio State has been at least in the NC conversation deep into November almost every year, more than any other school.
OTOH, I'm old enough to have perspective. I remember the team going 7-5, 8-4, and 6-6 in the three years immediately preceeding what I listed above. I remember Cooper going 2-10-1 against your team from 1988-2000. I vaguely remember Ohio State having at least three losses every year for 13 straight years from 1980-1992.
In short, crap happens and it can happen in Columbus too.
My point is that while I've obviously enjoyed the incredible run of success that Ohio State has been on basically since my freshman year on campus (1993)*, I'm old enough to know that a minimum of 10-2 is not automatic, it isn't a birthright.
In short, crap happens and it can happen in Columbus too.
Ohio State's last (I think it is) four or five QB's have jumped in and looked like veterans practically from day one and I hope that continues but it isn't guaranteed.
In short, crap happens and it can happen in Columbus too.
New offensive linemen sometimes look like they are new.
In short, crap happens and it can happen in Columbus too.
Position groups that look rock solid in the preseason sometimes unravel (see tOSU RB's last year) due to injuries and other issues.
In short, crap happens and it can happen in Columbus too.
As I see it, Ohio State has four games against teams that will either be favored or slight underdogs against the Buckeyes. Those opponents are:
- At Notre Dame on 9/23
- Vs Penn State on 10/21
- At Wisconsin on 10/28
- At Michigan on 11/25
8-4 has to be considered a serious and realistic possibility because even a very good Ohio State team could lose those four games.
I've also seen a lot of upset losses that are inexplicable in retrospect in my time. Just in the last few years:
- The 2018 Ohio State team that won the Rose Bowl and finished 13-1 lost 49-20 to a Purdue team that lost SEVEN games.
- The 2017 Buckeyes that won the Cotton Bowl and finished 12-2 lost 55-24 to an Iowa team that lost five games.
- The 2015 Ohio State team that won the Fiesta Bowl and finished 12-1 and returned most of the contributors from the prior season's NC lost at home to an MSU squad that wasn't as good as their 12-2 final record makes them look.
- The 2014 Buckeyes lost at home by two TD's to a VaTech squad that finished with six losses. That team went on to beat Alabama in their own backyard and win the NC.
- The 2009 Ohio State team that won the Rose Bowl and finished 11-2 lost to a Purdue team that lost SEVEN games.
Almost nobody would seriously argue that any of the five teams listed above were better than the Ohio State team that they beat but that doesn't change the fact that all five DID beat the Buckeyes. Some of those losses cost the Buckeyes dearly:
- In the last pre-bowl poll in 2018 the Buckeyes were #5. If they had defeated a 6-7 Purdue team they'd have been in the playoffs.
- In the last pre-bowl poll in 2017 Ohio State was #5. If they had beaten a mediocre Iowa team they'd have been in the playoffs.
- The 2015 loss to MSU cost the Buckeyes a spot in the B1GCG that was effectively a NC Quarter-final.
In short, crap happens and it can happen in Columbus too.
Four losses to relative equals and an upset somewhere along the way is a 7-5 season and that could happen even with a pretty good team. I'm not saying I think that WILL happen, just that the possibility of more that three losses cannot be dismissed out of hand.
*Above I stated that the incredible run started in 1993. Some people might take issue with that because, with Cooper still in charge from 1993-2000 the records against Michigan (2-6) and in bowls (3-4) were not great. That is true, but the 1993, 95, 96, 97, and 1998 teams were in the NC conversation deep into November and Cooper's teams won a slew on league titles in that stretch. After, as recounted above, losing at least three games each year for 13 years from 1980-1992, Cooper's teams from 1993-1998 only lost three or more in a year twice.