2023 Michigan Season Thread

[SuperMario]

I have no idea and I'm genuinely curious and I still think the most likely source of the information is either:

• The Weiss investigation stumbled upon this, or
• Weiss was mad over his termination and tipped someone off.

We are starting to agree too often.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Even if Michigan is guilty of everything they are accused of, involving Vegas in this seems like a really slippery slope.  What if a team plays a kid who isn't actually taking classes, so is deemed retroactively inelgible?  Does that become a violation of gambling laws?

I hate this take.  Vegas wants to get in bed with college sports, you get in bed with the whole damn thing.

Vegas has been "in bed" with college sports for a long long time. I would think that *IF* any of this is true and that particular firm was involved, it would be pretty simple to understand how it happened:

• Vegas is pretty damn advanced at figuring out where to set lines for sports. It's how they make their money, so it's important.
• This firm has some sort of analysis system (whether human or via advanced analytics) that looks for outlier performance relative to lines. 
• When performance consistently doesn't look like it "should", they start suspecting foul play and investigate. As CD mentions, often they're looking for something like point shaving. 
• Michigan is 3rd nationally in ATS performance since 2021.
  Michigan is 3rd nationally in ATS performance since 2021. I.e. a big red flag. 
• In this case an investigation may have led them to finding this info. Not sure how, of course, as I have no idea of their capability or methods. 
• Once they found the info, they alerted the relevant authority (NCAA) because Michigan was breaking the system that makes Vegas money. 

Now, this is all pure speculation. However, if it's true, the above would IMHO be at least a passing resemblance to how it went down. 

[SuperMario]

.

• Michigan is 3rd nationally in ATS performance since 2021. I.e. a big red flag.

So do you think the rest of these are investigated and red flags as well? Like why is the 3rd team the big red flag when they aren't the biggest red flag? Just trying to wrap my head around it as admittedly i don't know this well AT ALL

[Honestbuckeye]

Vegas has been "in bed" with college sports for a long long time. I would think that *IF* any of this is true and that particular firm was involved, it would be pretty simple to understand how it happened:

• Vegas is pretty damn advanced at figuring out where to set lines for sports. It's how they make their money, so it's important.
• This firm has some sort of analysis system (whether human or via advanced analytics) that looks for outlier performance relative to lines.
• When performance consistently doesn't look like it "should", they start suspecting foul play and investigate. As CD mentions, often they're looking for something like point shaving.
• Michigan is 3rd nationally in ATS performance since 2021. I.e. a big red flag.
• In this case an investigation may have led them to finding this info. Not sure how, of course, as I have no idea of their capability or methods.
• Once they found the info, they alerted the relevant authority (NCAA) because Michigan was breaking the system that makes Vegas money.

Now, this is all pure speculation. However, if it's true, the above would IMHO be at least a passing resemblance to how it went down.

Good post.

A lot of speculation out there, which I generally don’t pay attention to. But what we do know, as fact, because Petitti said this in his 13 page report, is that US integrity was consulted on this issue, and the feedback they gave was that this was serious enough that it impacts this season.
What we don’t know is did the Big Ten and the NCAA reach out to US integrity, or did US integrity reach out to them?

[Benthere2]

Vegas has been "in bed" with college sports for a long long time. I would think that *IF* any of this is true and that particular firm was involved, it would be pretty simple to understand how it happened:

• Vegas is pretty damn advanced at figuring out where to set lines for sports. It's how they make their money, so it's important.
• This firm has some sort of analysis system (whether human or via advanced analytics) that looks for outlier performance relative to lines.
• When performance consistently doesn't look like it "should", they start suspecting foul play and investigate. As CD mentions, often they're looking for something like point shaving.
• Michigan is 3rd nationally in ATS performance since 2021. I.e. a big red flag.
• In this case an investigation may have led them to finding this info. Not sure how, of course, as I have no idea of their capability or methods.
• Once they found the info, they alerted the relevant authority (NCAA) because Michigan was breaking the system that makes Vegas money.

Now, this is all pure speculation. However, if it's true, the above would IMHO be at least a passing resemblance to how it went down.

i do think you are on to something.
this smells like a Vegas investigation
I mean millions is lost or won on these games and any unfair advantage is horrible

hypothetical
what if Stallion made money off bets because he knew the team knew the signals
this can become a real shit show

if this were to happen you may never see Stallion again he will be burried with Hoffa

[Cincydawg]

It would be interesting to know, for sure, if TCU changed their signs after being warned.

[betarhoalphadelta]

So do you think the rest of these are investigated and red flags as well? Like why is the 3rd team the big red flag when they aren't the biggest red flag? Just trying to wrap my head around it as admittedly i don't know this well AT ALL

This data is actually what caused me to kind of move off the "ATS record" as was brought up earlier in the thread, because it just compared Michigan to the other big name and helmet programs. I saw this and realized that Michigan could simply be a natural outlier, because in every distribution sometimes the long tail is random chance. 

That said, I think there might be multiple things here:

• You're assuming by the way the question is phrased that the others were NOT investigated. Whereas it's possible that they were investigated, nothing was found, so it was determined that the ATS performance was random chance.
• It could be that the bigger programs get more scrutiny based on their being a lot more action on their games. That said, by cover percentage PSU was barely behind Michigan and ND was only one game behind. 
• I posted one public web site with data on this. It's possible that US Integrity has a TON more advanced data they're working from that further singled out Michigan as an outlier. 

I'm refraining from forming an opinion on how this all came out because I'm not in possession of the facts. I'm hypothesizing, however, that this could have been one avenue that is plausible. 

[ELA]

So do you think the rest of these are investigated and red flags as well? Like why is the 3rd team the big red flag when they aren't the biggest red flag? Just trying to wrap my head around it as admittedly i don't know this well AT ALL

I would ignore JMU and JSU because they are new FBS schools, and the numbers aren't great.

I think the fact that UNLV is #1 is either an issue or a big red flag.

[Honestbuckeye]

It would be interesting to know, for sure, if TCU changed their signs after being warned.

We do know that. Their coaches have stated that publicly.

They indicated that they were for warned by multiple other teams, and that they actually didn’t just changed their signals, but they used dummy signals to confuse Michigan 

[Honestbuckeye]

I would ignore JMU and JSU because they are new FBS schools, and the numbers aren't great.

I think the fact that UNLV is #1 is either an issue or a big red flag.

It also has to do with departure from normal. I don’t have the data in front of me, but I have seen it posted and Michigan was running in about 45% against the spread. For many seasons.  And that is a normal range they say between 45 and 55% overtime.  It’s hard to beat Vegas overtime because they adjust their spreads to your performance so if you continue to be the spread, they keep raising the spread. 

So the jump that Michigan took against the spread to start the 21 season and caring through the 22 and into the 23 season was a red flag.

[Honestbuckeye]

I will add that in Petitti’s letter, his 13 page report, he states that he has been told by the coaches that changing your signs is extremely difficult an ineffective over the short term.  And then his words he “took that as credible.”

So for TCU they had over a month to work on it. 

[Mdot21]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=855&v=sx2KLV2HntY&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elevenwarriors.com%2F&source_ve_path=Mjg2NjY&feature=emb_logo


might just be BS- but stop blaming it on other schools

not blaming anything on other schools. this whole ordeal is Michigan's fault and Michigan's fault alone for employing a whack job like Connor Stallions.

Jeem's been hiring a bunch of psychos lately. Matt Weiss, Stallions, Shemy the Super racist, and that pedo staffer. I'm sure there are a couple others I am forgetting. Jeem need to do a much better job vetting his hires...

[Honestbuckeye]

I have to agree.  If you assume that, no other coaches, even knew which I think is a fair assumption given no evidence has been provided to the contrary, still have to wonder how a nut job  like that was able to pull this off. 

Even if that’s the final result, that he was in on, this is a lone wolf , damage has been significant, and will probably be somewhat long lasting. 

[Cincydawg]

TCU Turned Michigan’s Sign-Stealing HabiTCU Turned Michigan’s Sign-Stealing Habit Against Them in College Football Playoff, per Report - Sports Illustrated

The reports I see say "reportedly" and "claimed" and "apparently".

TCU apparently knew about Michigan’s sign-stealing habit ahead of their College Football Playoff matchup last New Year’s Eve, according to a report from Yahoo! Sports’ Ross Dellenger.

“Literally everybody we talked to knew,” one unnamed TCU coach told Dellenger. “They’d say, ‘Just so you know, they steal your signals and they’re going to have everything so you better change them.’”
The NCAA opened the investigation regarding Michigan’s sign stealing earlier this month, and it now has escalated to the point where it began interviewing Wolverines coaches Thursday.
Up to this point, the investigation has centered around low-level staffer Connor Stalions, whom the program suspended a day after the investigation became public. Stalions allegedly purchased tickets to scout Michigan’s future opponents in person to determine their coaches’ signals, an action that is illegal in college football.