Let's stipulate for the moment that the public evidence is mostly correct (and that may not be the case, or it could be worse). I'd opine this would result in major penalties, forfeited wins over a period of years, fines, ban on post season play for X years, maybe 3, scholarship reductions, lack of institutional control and show cause penalties, and probably a nearly complete dismissal of the staff. I view it as a major violation not seen in CFB in years. I could be wrong of course.
It would be short of the DP, but not by much. The key would be, I think, linking the "stealing evidence" to specific coach actions in games. If that happens, and it might, it would be "bad". JH would have his safety net in the NFL of course. His assistants wouldn't be nearly as lucky.
This is where I'm at.
If the evidence holds up, it's a premeditated, coordinated, institutionally-supported plan to cheat in flagrant and direct violation of the rules.
And based on the outsized success of Michigan ATS, it looks as if it was effective and gave them a significant on-field advantage as a result. Although IMHO even if it didn't, the penalties should be the same.
I would see at minimum vacated wins 2021-2023, show cause for Jim, the OC, and the DC, and Stalions of course, and probably a year postseason ban. The rest of the staff would be cleaned house anyway as they bring in a new coach, so I don't think punishing the lower level assistant coaches makes any sense. They might be a little radioactive to be hired elsewhere but you attack this sort of thing at the top, not at the bottom. I don't know if they'd go any harder on scholarship reductions/etc, because we all know the NCAA likes to protect the moneymakers. But they can't just let this slide.
I don't see this being swept under the rug. The penalties I described above would be about as much of a slap on the wrist as you could theoretically go. The show cause doesn't affect the program; it affects the involved coaches. So that's not punishing the program. Vacated wins are ignored by fans. So that's a "costless" penalty to the program. A one year postseason ban shows you did something, but you can say it's not punishing the new staff unfairly for the sins of the previous staff.